Battleground Snow

@Dennis Overnight gefs suggested (albeit very weakly) that an intense high pressure system would transfer east across Canada towards Greenland, this may be the mechanism to how we get to what the ecm46 is showing. The gfs 06z seems to be picking this signal up earlier, we do need the Atlantic to also play ball though.

Better from the pub run, need to keep that tpv over scandi and not have any reformation or remnants over Greenland

Latest gfs and gem/CDC mjo plots have moved towards the ecm (non BC) in gaining some amplification, through 6 towards 7. After that then potentially reamplfiying right at the end. Cfs really goes for it. Obviously just one piece of the puzzle but, it should promote blocking in favoured areas around 13-14th February with the lag factored in ( just outside the extended model range) but the signal is there on the weekly ecm graphs. Just a hunch, but there is a probably a good chance late February and March will once again be the best time for some cold and snow outbreaks in Western Europe. It is infuriating watching that tpv stuck to Greenland every run atm in the heart of winter

It's the bias correction, I purposely used the non biased corrected version, purely based on It seems to be more accurate at the moment, looking backwards on the previous wave, (doesn't mean it will be this time out though) Which I know sounds counter intuitive.

I share the disappointment in the modelling at the moment, but it can always change at 10+ days away. A slight positive today is the ecm seems to be resisting the urge to send the mjo into cod in phase 7, the 500mb anomaly is decent for February, although phase 8 is what we really want. It seems to be taking an age to shift the tpv away from Greenland, which is eating up valuable winter days. I would say a cold spell is still possible, but it's looking more like mid February now, compared to the monthly glosea / ecm which were advertising a totally blocked month for February a couple of weeks ago based on how strong the anomalies were

As noted by others the AO looks like tanking in a week or so. Hopefully can assist in dislodging the vortex away from Greenland, which appears to be scuppering any block of note to our north or north east at the moment

I wouldn't be too worried at the moment as it's still so far out at day 10, we only need minor tweaks, but taking it at face value, it will be a struggle to get an undercut as things stand. There are a fair few decent gefs members at day 10. Control attached

Quite a few different versions on of the scandi high at day 11 as you would expect. It's still out in FI, so best to just keep a watching brief for now over the coming days.

Trust us to get a HLB that is "too high" Just one run of course at that range.

It is uncanny how the gfs does seem to pick up a pattern change first, and then the ecm gets interested a few runs later. I thought the other day that we would accelerate towards to Scandinavian high solution in the final days of January, but then the gfs stepped back from this and made me look stupid, hopefully this isn't another false dawn. Would like to see a hlb sooner rather than later if mjo does lose amplitude, although the other teleconnections may be enough on their own to sustain it in February.

Yes the charts are teasing us in the medium range. The potential is there, but that mass to the northwest ideally just needs to drift a bit west to stop things from getting flattened.

Control is indeed a beauty. Have to admit I was a bit downbeat after the 18z gefs yesterday, as the signal for scandi seemed to vanish, but at least it's been picked up again this morning Not a bad mean towards the end.

Okay I understand what you are saying now, Agreed it will be a slow burner and we need some retrogression to pull the heights up from Iberia to allow undercuts either from the west or east, ideally both!

The waa that supports a potential Scandinavian high is clearly an option in the 192-240, range. It is dependent on how the troughs spawning off the tpv to the northwest orientate, e:g if they are sufficiently west and negatively tilted, so that they don't flatten the ridge and push it too far east. It's an unlikely outcome admittedly on the current modelling, with only a few rogue runs going for this, but I'm not sure why you think it's not possible at all under this setup

@Scott Ingham will enjoy that in the morning, slices the tpv like a hot knife thru butter. Perhaps a week too early, but wouldn't be surprised to see a version of this synoptic setup show up more and more over the coming runs.

Certainly a growing number of ensembles trending towards a blocked pattern, hopefully we see this grow over the coming days. A few examples for the 29th of January.

I can only see the signal accelerating, similar to how the zonal spell got brought forward. Doesn't mean the orientation will give us deep cold straight away, but it will definitely be an option at least. Maybe a holding pattern of chilly weather in the final days of January, followed by something more substantial into the first week of February?

Just for fun, but the winds could be coming from Russia / Siberia by 384 here, huge expanse of high pressure

There Has been a few signs of it across the various suites in the past couple of days That horrible mess to to our northwest can actually help with the strength of a Scandinavian high if it orientates in the right way, seen it many times before, it probably be gone next run, but at least something to keep an eye on.

On the end of the gfs run we are still being plagued by euro heights, but pressure is increasing to the north east, while starting to weaken to our south. Will be keeping an eye on the ecm eps over the coming runs to see if this solution can gain any traction. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5013308

I'm interested to see how the retrogression is going to try to shift the tpv away from Greenland as it looks like a beast ATM, Perhaps some assistance via Atlantic wave breaks? I'm flying out of the country late on the 28th so the 29th fits well for the next spell of cold weather

I'm just starting to see some signs of life in the extended, Would be nice to accelerate towards that solution, ecm does get to phase 7 faster.... So extended EPS may offer some further hope tonight. Control, attached, alongside a couple of the best gefs members, also attached is the mean anamoly. Let the next chase commence!

On the end of the gfs run we are still being plagued by euro heights, but pressure is increasing to the north east, while starting to weaken to our south. Will be keeping an eye on the ecm eps over the coming runs to see if this solution can gain any traction.

Not much to discuss in the long term at the moment. Scandinavian heights are still likely towards the final days of January, ecm eps looks to perhaps to get there a little faster than the gefs. You can just see right at the end of the run them migrating up from Europe. Tpv looks anchored to Greenland on the EPS, but cold from the east is still possible if a scandi high has enough strength, hoping to see the mjo wave keep high enough amplitude as it goes it 7, generally the higher the amplitude the stronger the block.

It looks a bit more ridgy in the Atlantic too