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Battleground Snow

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Everything posted by Battleground Snow

  1. Battleground Snow
    Perhaps, but ukmo and ecm agreement at 96 hours is a strong combo
  2. Battleground Snow
    Yes because the orientation is poor on the gfs early on, arpege would lead on to what the ecm and ukmo are showing by 144
  3. Battleground Snow
    Arpege with the solid block into Greenland and consistent with it's previous run
  4. Battleground Snow
    I think to stop us going mad, it's better to just look at ukmo and ecm up to 144 at the moment, doesn't seem to swing wildly from run to run
  5. Battleground Snow
    Classic gfs one step forward and 2 steps back
  6. Battleground Snow
    Yeah, you can already see there is less of cold push into Iceland which is what we want
  7. Battleground Snow
    Haha I'm not explaining it again, I've already done it twice, just it will prop the block up better and will send the cold plunge more south rather than south west
  8. Battleground Snow
    Gfs has took a big step to the euros early on, Look for the high to get sucked up from Uk towards greenland because the low is still enclosed in the Atlantic
  9. Battleground Snow
    If it makes you feel better the gfs and ukmo go their own separate ways at 96, so usually we know who backs down in that scenario, especially in an unusual situation with the Arctic high
  10. Battleground Snow
    Arpege with an even better initial block than the ukmo. Let's hope the north American models are picking up on the incorrect pattern early on.
  11. Battleground Snow
    I see that happening because the cold is flooding into the north Atlantic and not south into France, When the ukmo 168 comes out I expect it to push away any Iberian heights. It's why it's vital we get a good orientation on the initial plunge of arctic air.
  12. Battleground Snow
    I think it's more what's going on over the Arctic which is dictating matters, going to be some stressful runs ahead I think.
  13. Battleground Snow
    Look at the difference over Greenland from last run, going to be lots of swings in the output with this. I'd probably advise sticking with ukmo and ecm up to 144, as the longer range output is going to volatile, with arctic highs, warmings and downwelling waves
  14. Battleground Snow
    Nice UKMO again this morning and pretty consistent I'm not keen on how the gem and gfs are sending lots of cold via Iceland and into the Atlantic, I think it will weaken the block long term.
  15. Battleground Snow
    All the models toy with moving the low east at some point, if it does get near the UK you want to make sure you have the cold air as south as possible by then, hence why the initial Greenland block orientation is important, This is the closest gefs member I could see to the icon, I've ran it on to see what might happen.
  16. Battleground Snow
    The low circled in red props up the high into Greenland a little better on the icon compared to the gfs, but like I said it probably won't make too much difference in the grand scheme of things
  17. Battleground Snow
    The Atlantic low, might not affect that much, other than timings of the plunge
  18. Battleground Snow
    It's escaped out again at 108, so I doubt this will go down the ukmo , icon and ecm run route, doesn't mean there won't be a cold plunge though.
  19. Battleground Snow
    Can see the difference in the icon ukmo and ecm v the gfs in the Atlantic. The low in the Atlantic gets boxed in, while on the gfs it escapes out. Blocking is more robust when it's kept blocked in
  20. Battleground Snow
    It's the position and strength of the Arctic high causing the slight model variations, The general pattern looks set though, in terms on the Arctic high pushing the trop vortex south. Is there any stats on Arctic/polar verification for the models?
  21. Battleground Snow
    Yeah the angle of the wind isn't good for us until 4ish like you say. But going on how badly the models have underestimated the precipitation in the south east, might get some heavier streamers than modelled.
  22. Battleground Snow
    Solid mean at 156! Expect the graph to trend down again later
  23. Battleground Snow
    There were a few voices touting it Sometimes you have to go on past experience, even with all the computing model power we have today
  24. Battleground Snow
    Hello what's going on here, More Arctic heights, I assume the stuff going on up top is the reason. Should keep that trop vortex from reforming for a while
  25. Battleground Snow
    Hopefully now the Arctic high is within 4 day timeframe, the modelling of it won't be jumping around so much, as that feature affects us so much in the later frames
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