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Battleground Snow

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Everything posted by Battleground Snow

  1. Battleground Snow
    If the Gfs model is picking that up at range, could be some significant activity when it actually happens
  2. Battleground Snow
    Gem 204 Cold air flooding south fast
  3. Battleground Snow
    All quite similar at 144, Maybe some consistency coming into the models?
  4. Battleground Snow
    Icon and gfs both upgrade the cold pool at day 3, widely -11s and further north Icon ends like this
  5. Battleground Snow
    Jma 18z v gfs Pretty close fit
  6. Battleground Snow
    I do think that cold pool is very important in the early timeframe as it props the high up, ukmo had the deepest cold pool, especially when compared to the ecm. Fascinating watching
  7. Battleground Snow
    Yep mean has improved too, the graph later will trend down with more members
  8. Battleground Snow
    Iceland is far enough north, especially if it edges east into scandi. Then we can think about that cold pool over eastern Europe heading out way. A Greenland block is good for Northerly unstable flow, but it if you want the extreme temps, the flow from the east or north east is often needed, especially in modern times. Guess it depends where you live on which synoptic outcome you prefer. Being in the midlands we usually benefit from most of them.
  9. Battleground Snow
    Ukmo 168! If ecm shows this at 168, it's later frames could be amazing
  10. Battleground Snow
    Not bad for a bone dry week is it
  11. Battleground Snow
    It's also winning @nick sussex uppers table, although I think the ukmo might get a -13 when it updates later
  12. Battleground Snow
    It's big enough of a change to affect 168-192, compare 192 with 198 later on and we'll see by how much
  13. Battleground Snow
    And there is the adjustment at Day 3 @sheikhy Feel like we can take this run a bit more seriously in the 168-192 now range now.
  14. Battleground Snow
    High Res starting to find the precipitation more widely now,and even these may well be underselling it at that range. 12z arpege. A dusting for some is a nice starter, especially for areas that usually miss out.
  15. Battleground Snow
    Not much different by 144 either, I do find that the 06z doesn't really differ too much from the 00z. Seems to be a bigger changes in general going from 06z to 12z and 18z to 00z
  16. Battleground Snow
    Not long to wait until the 06 ECM I'm feeling pretty model fatigued at the moment! But it's one of the best model watching periods we've have for a while, especially in a January
  17. Battleground Snow
    Yes the high Res models agree with much lower uppers too, so gfs is having a bit of bad time in the early timeframe.
  18. Battleground Snow
    One thing I have noticed this morning is how the gfs has the initial high in a much different position to the other models, it's as much as 200 miles different just at 72-96 hours. Surely this will have a massive impact on where it ends up post 168. I'm still leaning towards some decent shower activity for the south next week too with that cold pool, heights are touch and go.
  19. Battleground Snow
    Only another 51 gfs runs untill we get to this date... Signal still looks very solid to me across all the ensemble suites.
  20. Battleground Snow
    We don't need mega blocking to deliver cold synoptics, having the jet stream far south will prevent the Atlantic from coming back in, However Ukmo probably the most robust at 168 in terms of blocking to the north west.
  21. Battleground Snow
    Gfs actually works out better for us by day 10 in terms of cold, but some crazy profile on the gem
  22. Battleground Snow
    By 144 the differences are even more magnified, Gem wants to slice the tropospheric polar vortex into 2 very early on
  23. Battleground Snow
    Spot the odd one out at 96, Might just be low enough heights on the ukmo and gem for snow showers to set up in the extreme south
  24. Battleground Snow
    Tensions running high tonight..... Mean and control seem pretty solid again,
  25. Battleground Snow
    Gfs looking quite similar to the ecm run, Blocking north of Scotland intensifying, lets see where it goes next
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