Thinon
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Posts posted by Thinon
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9 minutes ago, philglossop said:
93mph for Plymouth?
Still Amber? Laughable.
Clearly, confidence of exceptionally strong gusts is less than 80%. I mean, an amber warning is still a pretty firm heads up.
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That is a fantastic medium term update from the Met Office.
Dry and sunny in the south with above average temps. OFF goes the heating, ON goes the bbq
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Hopefully today's update will remove all references to cold and snow, and be replaced with more exciting words such as "warm", "dry", "sunny", and "barbecue"
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6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:
1.2c all snow has melted and everyone in the MOD thread say game over for the cold spell.
Wow! Unbelievable difference between NW and SE London. Everything is absolutely frozen solid here, been snowing lightly all day, every flake sticking to every surface. A thaw feels a million miles away. I guess you win some, you lose some.
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Today's Met Office's text forecast for the SE was a snow lover's dream. "Heavy and widespread snow", "drifting", "bitter easterly wind", "ice on untreated surfaces". Warnings in place across the region.
Well there is barely 3 hours left until "today" becomes "tonight" and the reality for most of us has been a million miles from the expectation.
I'm not calling it a complete bust just yet, but it's easy to understand why so many people are upset.
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5 minutes ago, E17boy said:
Morning peeps
Light snow been falling here in Walthamstow since 9 am still coming down but nothing settling. Awaiting for this to get heavier
Don't hold your breath. Just had an hour of heavy snow here and nothing settled on pavements
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8 minutes ago, snowking said:
If you want an example of how models underestimate convective showers, take a look at the 12z EURO4 prediction for around now
Then take a look at what’s happening off the East of Scotland
Pretty much bang on in the south though
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Which 12z / 18z precip chart is the most accurate so far based on the current radar? Aperge/UKV/icon?
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1 minute ago, Downpour said:
The snow is being pushed back hour after hour. Now 1000 for light snow in my location (was 0100 for heavy snow earlier). Sadly it’s looking poor if not very poor for much of our region.
And some people were expecting red warnings
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Just now, tinybill said:
Precip looks massively overblown on the +24hr radar, but we shall see!
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The transisition from rain to snow is underway in the Netherlands currently
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I cannot see a red warning being issued for this event, as the likelihood won't be high enough until it pretty much arrives. Even then, some areas in the zone will see a lot of snow whilst others with have relatively little, they won't apply a red warning unless 99% certainty and widespread within the said zone.
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14 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:
I’ve been monitoring this radar all day, it looks great for the whole SE doesn’t it
The +24hr radar does look hugely overblown when you compare it to the T-1hr or even +3hr radar. It's very low res
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4 minutes ago, snowking said:
I'm afraid aside from the GFS, the trend to push everything further SE is continuing, with the Arome and Harmonie models also significantly further SE than on their 6z runs.
At this rate, we might as well just get rid of the system and rely on showers off the North Sea instead
Yes this is exactly why the BBC and MetO still emphasize "uncertainty" over the snow accumulations. And the severe weather warnings are based almost solely on the potential "impact" rather than "likelihood", as per the MetO's impact matrix. That organised system may not reach land at all, and this certainly seems to be a growing trend. But things can, and probably will, change
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Disappointing here in BR7. Light to moderate snow for over an hour, but not enough intensity for any significant accumulation so far.
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All of the frost just melted here within the space of 5 minutes.
Snow is due to start any minute..
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It's not very often you'll see this.. 9C and heavy snow on the same day!
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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:
This is up until tomorrow night...
The trouble with these charts is they don't take into account any probable interim thawing or the negative impact on accumulations during rain to snow (or snow to rain) events. These are best taken with a pinch of salt, even at this relatively close range.
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27 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:
God forbid I bet if I said it looked like a raging blizzard I would have got a pat on the back and a blue Peter badge
Exactly this. People only like what they want to hear. There is no voice of reason in the model thread. It just results in needlessly frequent disappointment!
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32 minutes ago, warrenb said:
The problem we have is that the ground level air has been so modified by the super warm North Sea and the 850's are just not low enough to cool the base level enough to mix out the warming modification.
Yes, I've been trying to explain this over the last week or so. 850s may seem low enough on paper but they are simply nowhere near cold enough to negate the surface level warming over the North Sea. But it seems people would rather listen to the optimists and get their false hopes up, and then moan when there's no mini Ice Age.
I see the BBC are forecasting 10C for London next week. The British winter has no shame.
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:
I felt bad this morning saying as much mate.
Hoping as many as possible see some snow this week though ...
UKMO 850s keep the majority cold out to 144 so a solid colder phase nailed on..
Let's see where we are in a few days, I have a feeling IDO s zonal express will be on a short journey but we will see...
We must take into account the warming of the surface easterly flow over the North sea. None of the medium term charts quantify this so I would take seemingly low 850s with a pinch of salt.
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13 minutes ago, danm said:
It is ironic that when it was cold enough for snow we had no showers and now that we do have showers it isn’t cold enough. Fingers crossed for this week though.
I agree but the reason is that the Easterly flow is warming over the North Sea. A northerly flow is currently better for cold temps but not so good for ppn. We are stuck between a rock and a hard place
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5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:
Uppers look iffy for any falling snow......
Yes and many amateur forecasters often overlook the fact that the easterly air flow will likely warm up at the surface as it crosses the North Sea before reaching the UK despite the uppers seeming to be low enough, hence the Meto going with the rather underwhelming but sadly very justified marginal outlook
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Storm Eunice - 18th February
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Correct otherwise the whole southern half of the country would be facing widespread destruction!