Thinon
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Posts posted by Thinon
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Spare a thought for the medium range forecasters in New York – only a few days ago the daytime max temp was -12C and today its +17C !
And we think UK model-watching is stressful !
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Speaking of the MetO "covering all bases", what has the actual weather been like for most of us these last 7 days?
Cold? Yes.
Mild? Yes.
Rain? Yes.
Snow? Yes.
Fine/sunny? Yes.Can you blame them for not offering more certainty? In fact it proves their outlooks have been spot on if anything.
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I get that the Met Office has larger resources etc, but it's interesting how the same people on this forum who were predicting a new ice age for Jan/Feb, are the same people now blasting the Met Office for questionable long range forecasting and a desire to cover all bases.
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A fairly decent update on the BBC Monthly Outlook:
Monday 11 February—Sunday 24 February
Chance of colder weather setting in
There is an increasing risk of significant cold weather as we move through the middle of February. This is because we expect the high pressure currently situated over Scandinavia to shift westwards towards north-west Europe. The effects of this are similar to those described for the first full week of February i.e. reduced 'mild' westerly winds from the Atlantic, and an increasing chance of cold east or north-easterly winds reaching the UK. If this happens there will be an increased risk of snow and ice affecting the UK.
Although the risk of cold weather has increased, it is by no means certain. There is a chance that the Scandinavian high pressure area will remain less of a feature, leaving the UK in a cool and unsettled pattern with winds coming in from the west or north-west. There is a roughly 30% chance of this, underlining that the forecast for this period of the winter remain rather uncertain.-
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I know we shouldn't take the BBC graphics too seriously, but it's currently showing 9C for London next Saturday, when this forum was predicting an Ice Age!
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Every winter is a Day 10 winter..
A wise man once told me to just follow the Met Office and BBC forecasts for updates on cold/snow. Wise words indeed.
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32 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
Yesssssss not one mention of mild .
No, but rain and sleet is mentioned a couple of times...
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BBC MONTHLY OUTLOOK recently updated:
Monday 28 January—Sunday 10 February
Colder than average with rain and snow at times
There continues to be the likelihood of some cold, wintry weather through the end of January and early February ... However, indications are that this cold weather is more likely to come in pulses from the north, perhaps with occasionally milder and wetter interludes in-between (unlike the extreme and prolonged cold we experienced during the 'Beast from the East' episode in February/March 2018).
Nevertheless, temperatures are likely to be below the seasonal average more often than not with some sharp night frosts and a mixture of bands of rain and snow moving across the UK. The greatest risk for some significant snowfall appears to be over northern areas.
There are chances of more severe, sustained cold developing (about a 25% probability) - a lesser chance is for much milder and wetter conditions to prevail...
Well whoopie doo
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Not sure if anyone's mentioned it yet, but the BBC Monthly Outlook (updated today) doesn't exactly get the pulses racing:
Monday 21 January—Sunday 3 February
There continue to be increasing chances of some cold, wintry weather through late January and into the start of February... Most likely are for conditions to become generally colder from the north but also somewhat drier and less windy. There is the elevated chance of occasional snow, though, initially for the north of the UK before this risk extends to southern areas too.The main uncertainty is over the duration of the expected colder spell of weather - there are chances that occasionally milder, wetter and breezier conditions could spread from the west at times. Overall, though, conditions are expected to be colder than recently. -
13 minutes ago, carinthian said:
Live picture from Obertauren buried in snow and mountain pass closed. 4 days of none stop snowfall and more forecast.
C
No disrespect but surely there is a more suitable thread for nowcasting Austria's weather?
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9 minutes ago, nicktabs said:
Are we sure it's over? Could pick up in the channel like earlier?
Yes but it would be rain/sleet
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1 minute ago, Lauren said:
What stations are they?
Mottingham, New Eltham etc
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8 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:
Central is cursed it must be, the intensity in North London completely building north of us.
ARRRRRGGGGHHHHHFGHDNJAWNBJDKEJ!!!!
I'm near Oxford Street and it's snowing quite heavy, large flakes. All surfaces covered.
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1 minute ago, Lauren said:
Anyone in the City at the moment? What's the weather doing?
Light snow for now
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The main blob seems to be fizzing out as it hits the Kent coast
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2 minutes ago, snowrye said:
Slightly heavier now,some bigger flakes in the mix,already a covering,probably aided by the freezing rain,fantastic stuff
If you type "Northiam weather" into Google, it actually says "Light freezing rain" !
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If only MetO, if only
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2 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:
Looking at the radar echoes, it still looks to me like any precipitation (which isn't anything significant at the moment) coming up from France is being deflected NW by the strong Easterly flow!
The beast really doesn't want to release it's grip!
Wasn't the precipitation supposed to hit us around 2-3pm? Let see how the radar develops in the next 2 hours. Hoping for one final flourish but not expecting.
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5 minutes ago, Nick L said:
Pretty sure that stuff approaching Kent is a radar anomaly. The very northern edge is becoming less "heavy" as it moves northwards.
Yes something doesn't look right about the way it developed over the French mainland
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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:
The next person to use an App forecast and go into one in here will be banned !
How many times can you say the same thing, apps are useless , automated forecasts are crap.
The weather doesn’t behave according to an app.
Will people please stop checking apps every 10 minutes and just wait and see what happens .
Moan over !
NS newly assigned App moderator !
The apps have actually been quite accurate at short range i.e. 1 to 12 hours but beyond that, useless.
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13 minutes ago, mrkipling said:
just keep an eye on the radar and track the snow pushing up from northwest France
That doesn't explain the current MetO forecast for today as that area of snow won't reach us until tonight (if it does reach us)
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Met Office showing 90% chance of heavy snow for London between 10am and 2pm. Their short range ppn forecasts have been fairly accurate so far. Looking at the radar though, I can't see that coming to fruition, unless they are seeing some hidden potential?
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Was hoping for a lot more today but can't complain.
I'm expecting a partial thaw tonight as temperatures may struggle to fall below freezing in some parts
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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
I wouldn’t say that I’ve been in the wrong place for five years. But I’ve struck good since yesterday. With the snow shower trains last night, it was some of the heaviest snowfall I’ve even seen. You can’t beat a good easterly, anything polar maritime and I’m not interested you just can’t get this dry snow here. Better than March 2013 here without doubt, powder on ground for second day decent thickness, blowing about in wind is this real.
Gosh your Twitter feed must be a right jizz fest at the moment! I dare not venture there.
I'm genuinely happy for you.
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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards
in Regional
Posted
The MO yellow warning will be all but removed shortly. They couldn't be sure where the low from the West was going but it's clear now that it's tracking through the Channel.