carinthian

Yes, I remember this well. I was on duty at LGW and think 60F was reached down there with persistent cloud and drizzle. Think the cloud level almost hit the deck and some British Caledonian flights cancelled. If correct I think the rest of the winter became much colder , especially in Feb 79 ? C

Yes, good post. There is a famous Northern Soul song, " 7 days too long " and we all know this time next week, the models may be showing something completely different for the Christmas Period. You are right about the trend to a pattern change is showing in the longer term models this morning , but nay impossible to nail down the finer details this far out. C

Spot on. Crazy gang 1 C

This picture taken in 1989. Defo not me on that drop. Anyone guess where it was taken ? C

Yes, I remember receiving that DWR chart when I was a young kid which was posted by The Met Office subscription service. It arrived on 23 rd December. 3 days later we were in a deep freeze that lasted 10 weeks. Crazy turn around. I always wondered if todays super models would have picked it up going by that synoptic chart. C

No, but still sending the wife out to work !

Yes Nick, UKMO at 168t does offer some lower temps over the SE . I would think the high is primed to centre over Southern England this time next week . So hopefully some surface cold over Southern England. Oh, then there is the small matter of the lead up to Christmas week. GFS extended trends to a Fairy Tail Christmas in the making, whilst ECM heading for a milder bore fest ! Of course both could be wrong. However, the early winter form winner so far has been GFS to pick out trends to cold or return to mild. Hopefully, its on the mark with its current runs to bring the upper trough down across Scandiland post medium term and let the cold flood south. C

No support for GFS lower European heights during the mid -term from the other models. So its "Billy no mates" on its own.If it pulls this one off , a big bonus over the others ! C

Evening, well there we have it from GFS op and Control. An attempt to bring back the cold to the British Isles as early as 7 days with the aid of a developing European trough. Looks like this model has little support from the others so far. However, GFS was first to show this weeks flushing away of the cold whist ECM/UKMO showed the greater resistance. So who is to say GFS is not going to be leader of the pack in a speedy return to colder scenario. C

Evening all. This was the temperatures outside my daughters home in Stockholm earlier today. One of the coldest December nights on record there. It appears looking at the models for next week the Atlantic lows hit the buffers and undercut against the entrenched cold across Southern and Central Scandinavia. I am just wondering whether this is going to help veer the flow quicker than expected across the UK and return the cold ? Could be some surprising runs over the coming days ! C

Even colder this morning, -25c just Northwest of the city. C

Yes, very dark. My daughter flies out to Cape Town today. +50c difference ! The Swedish cold has been entrenched for nearly a month now. As you say a warm up on the cards but surface temps will be low. C

Current temp outside my daughters home near Stockholm. Frozen Swedes . C

As promised some images from the village today. C

No live shots then but The Polar Low of Feb 1969. 18" dumped on our farm between Knutsford and Macclesfield between 9am and 5pm. Temp was down to -7c just after passage. 4 foot drifts across our lane . C

Thought some of you might like these pictures of Advent Weekend on The Katschberg. Very cold and snowy yesterday. C

Fantastic first Sunday of the new season . Lifts open and some early skiers taking advantage of deep powder snow and low temps. Down in the village -10c and -15c on the top run. A break in the early Advent snowfall at the moment. Will get some photos later. C

Yes, slowly but surely and good to see the diving jet well south. Better orientation of that mother feeder low well out in the NW Atlantic. C

Yes, think you are right 96-120 t. As you pointed out earlier the main difference this morning shown by all models if the indication of some energy spilling SE from the developing Atlantic mother low. We need to see that development to continue during this weekend runs. If it does so, we can expect some exciting charts for cold lovers. C

Morning all, not exactly a flush out of the cold shown this morning. The latest UKMO run shows the cold air hanging around now until Thursday. So that in its self is an upgrade compared to this time yesterday. Again looks like the models struggling to remove the cold block to the North east. Many have the Atlantic eventually breaking through but the resistance is all to see this morning. I think the odds to a milder evolution has been reduced going by this mornings latest outputs. Looks like an exciting weekend of model viewing , especially now in the shorter term for you lot. C

Looks like latest ECM run joins UKMO to flush out the cold sometime next week. I still think ( 120T-144T) remains a period of uncertainty. Currently we have 60% snow cover across Europe at the end of November. That extensive amount has not been seen for quite sometime for so early in the season. So for the next 5 days the cold remains entrenched for quite a big part of Europe /British Isles and the snow cover looks like it could even grow further..Henceforth, the flush out of cold could be delayed if the Atlantic underestimates' the block of cold air but that currently appears not to be influencing the current medium term runs. We wait and see if the flip occurs . C

Morning , looks like this mornings runs show little respect to the entrenched cold to the North East. After several attempts The Atlantic makes in roads across most of the British Isles by the end of next week at 168T. The GEM model shows the greatest resistance and the UKMO again the most progressive to flush out the cold. Just waiting on ECM run. I would think period 120-144 T still remains problematical regarding the medium term outlook. Whether the waft of mildest is temporary we wait on or not at all ! C

I am just wondering what that cold block over Scandinavia is affecting the current model outputs. Looks like Sweden is going to have its coldest November for a few decades past with early ice formation in the Gulf of Bothnia already present. Copenhagen recorded its coldest November Day for 100 years earlier in the week. Cold pools reform quickly in Arctic Nordic Regions and tend to move SWly. Could the British Isles end up ion the Battle Zone ? Who knows but could be special if that cold block to the NE remains and expands . The models seem to show its persistence. Whether it dominants UK/ Euro weather over the coming weeks or even months time will tell as always. C

Obertauern over the valley from me, about 30min drive . Know it well. Never been to Solden but know its big ski-ing ! C

Must be the nearest thing to paradise gliding through virgin snow with no one else in sight ! Where are you going to in Feb ? C