Harry

Advection of unstable warm and humid air does indeed often lead to thundery conditions but that is not the same as a dynamic warm front.

Curious as to how this warm front tracking North during Tuesday night plays out. Currently the BBC not really modelling any precip off of it but you never know.... Conditions are seldom good in the UK for warm front triggered thunderstorms however given the instability present it just may well do the trick. The only time I've witnessed warm front thunderstorms was in the US and they were pretty incredible, along with (I think) September 2009 in Kent but that was more akin to a CZ straddling the warm front. If there's one golden rule I've learned about plumes its to expect the unexpected - that is to say if you're sat under a few thousand MLCAPE do not be surprised to wake up to unexpected fireworks - which has been the case for me over the past couple of years.

People hoping for an eastward shift....certainly a novel concept

Agree, Dave - I've experienced 11 thunder days so far this year which is above average for sure. My gut tells me at the moment not to take charts too literally as it seems to be a very unpredictable period coming up. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the broader synoptics let alone the finer detail (eg. pre-frontal troughs and CZs) . For example, my iPhone app is now suggesting another round of 30C+ heat for Wednesday with temps still persisting in the high 20s through Thursday.

Indeed - not a common thing by any stretch...a very interesting (and highly unpredictable I would suggest) period coming up in the next few days. Its quite oppressively warm this evening and this is merely a foreword at what the next few days will bring! Bring it on

Not entirely sure what to make of GFS' circa 1,000 J/Kg CAPE at 03z Wednesday morning....

Almost feel obliged to qualify my earlier post... @William Grimsley my point about people planning their life was not aimed at you specifically, which I had hoped would be clear from starting a new paragraph (but was evidently mistaken). Where I was directing at you was the flip comment about there having to be inaccuracies in the models - I was highlighting that it is entirely possible they are more or less correct and recent years will and do attest to that possibility. It is an exciting period coming up and I do not wish to poop any parties - but equally I dread reading the doomsday "where are my storms" posts which are now all too common.

Why on earth would you put it down to inaccuracy? The Azores High is a notorious bit of a kit at suppressing thunderstorm activity - furthermore, if there's no trigger, all that juice will not materialise. Can I not cast your minds back to El Brummo when the SE baked in 33C and obscene humidity (with as much convective juice, if not more, than those areas which saw widespread severe storms) but skies here remained clear all day - as correctly predicted by the major models including GFS. Or cast your minds back to July last year where the SE quarter erupted with widespread thunderstorms, while N France and Benelux saw nothing. In any event, planning your life around a plume breakdown 4 days in advance is madness....those charts will change considerably between now and then...as happens every single year

Pretty thunderous downpour here right now - no thunder, but rainfall quite intense.

Having just stepped outside, despite the breeze and the passing of a cold front over the weekend, still very warm feeling airmass outside and fairly humid. Suspect any downpours through this afternoon could be quite torrential. Remain unsure about coverage of any electrical activity.

Probably, activity really starting to ramp up now again

Much more northerly component to those cells moving up from the south now!!

Very bright flash and rumble just then...couldn't tell from which direction though

Can see a lot of flashes from the Tunbridge Wells storm - really quite active

Looks to me like a multi-cell cluster is beginning to organise over the Channel/N France and could be a shot at an MCS...running the radar back and forth it does appear to have an increasingly northern shunt to it.

Still seeing the odd bright flash outside my east facing bedroom window. New cells firing across Sussex/Kent and growing in intensity. Might have to get some shut eye soon and set an alarm for around 2 for a status update.

Just saw a flash, lol

Interesting...32 in a 16 year period...an average of 2 per year and in no doubt some years there would have been multiple. Just to put into perspective how rare these beasts are (further to the debate much earlier today)

New cell firing near Southampton, in addition to all the others over France

Very elevated in the end, some great flashes and bolts and a few good thunder peels. Nothing vaguely severe about it however. Although again would emphasise the peak instability hasn't even arrived yet.

I'm in Bexley...trying to keep up on here and an eye on the sky...every time I look skyward this moves on 20 posts lol

Not entirely sure this storm approaching me is completely elevated....alarmed by the green tinge to some of the Lightning (hail!!??) and the lightning and thunder growing really quite frequent now!!

Just seen my first few blues-green flashes to my S/SW and can here deep growls of thunder. Yaaaaay!!!

Attention all forum buddies...NW France starting to light up!!!!

@William Grimsley I threatened earlier and I will abide by it...melancholia, report to Mods We are only experiencing initial bursts currently, with all models kicking off most action in the coming hours, through tomorrow morning (occasional models). AJs observations are encouraging as every model I saw indicated the western extent of the plume being around IoW (some not even that far).