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Everything posted by Harsh Climate
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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Harsh Climate replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think it's going to take a couple of bites at the cherry before we get any stellar charts. 1. Deep cold Should enter Scandinavia/Eastern Europe/ Russia 2. We will probably just miss out on it with atlantic weather slightly favoured over the cold dry air. 3. Atlantic starts to lose it's influence late this month with colder air advecting closer to us. 4. Boom ECM, UKMO, GFS all in agreement of boom charts with -15 uppers crossing the country late january! -
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Harsh Climate replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
How's the parallel looking griff? You are the man to ask -
Yeah I think cookridge should deffo be alright! I reckon above 100m away from immediate coasts should be cold enough for a light covering tonight/tomorrow, maybe lower. If the wind comes off the land and not the mild seas (left or right lol) will greatly increase our chances. Temperature now fallen back down to 1.0c here in otley, light snow falling although bit wet.
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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Harsh Climate replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Perputation 11 from GFS 6z esembles. If only! Lot's of eye candy now showing up in the esembles, I think before not too long the ECM and UKMO should produce a belter. I think with the SSW and deep cold atleast going to plunge into scaninavia/russia/eastern europe we have a lot to be optimistic about! -
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Harsh Climate replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
How many people would take this FI but GFS now toying with deep cold into scandinavia/eastern europe late january. If we can't get brutal cold over UK charts, this has to be next best thing. -
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Harsh Climate replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Will be a dusting at best. The Highlands and southern uplands will eat most of it up, to be finally finished off by the dales.. -
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Harsh Climate replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Funny though if ECM backtracks and is very good and cold, we would be right back in the game. ECM v everything wouldn't be the worse horse to back. But obviously that's all relative at this stage. -
North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards
Harsh Climate replied to cheshire snow's topic in Regional
Hey your totals are way off the mark the dales north west leeds, past experience in this type of set up says 10cm plus in places there, I wouldn't be surprised with a 15cm fall somewhere like Greenhow Hill.. Especially looking at the latest Bracknell charts which show a long lasting convergence zone setting up shop. Once the snow starts settling and the showers lining up like a train some places gonna get plastered! Much lower areas there NW leeds I'm goin 2-7cm where streamers set up. Tuesday into Wednesday morning greatest risk. -
Absolute nonsense, he has some good technical knowledge but those predictions are ridiculous. I bet any man here my left testicle and I will do there washing up and laundry for a month if that is correct! On Tuesday there will be some good lowland snow for many of us with some fantastic pics you mark my words :). And not a dig but he said last Tuesdays snow was restricted to ground above 150m or something like that, here in kippax (48m) I woke up to a good covering . This is why now casting and past experience can sometimes beat technical prowess and what you've read in a book.
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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Harsh Climate replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Harsh Climate replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Harsh Climate replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
From looking looking at GFS12z esembles at 240h there are still a few very good runs on there. But about 50% poor. -
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Harsh Climate replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Na, he was saying it before the ECM and UKMO downgrade. Also when the gfs 18z was showing a boom run.