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Everything posted by mulzy
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Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
mulzy replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And it’s 0/1 after the count from Germany (ICON) -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
mulzy replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would put it at a 80% chance that GFS is wrong. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
mulzy replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UK high -> Sceuro high -> Scandi high. That’s the evolution I am looking for. Need things to align but that’s what we need to be watching out for in FI. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
mulzy replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Week 5 is good. The countdown is on! -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
mulzy replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The day 10 mean is pretty ominous. Let’s hope we can scrape a decent cluster in FI. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
mulzy replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Which is not going to deliver for most of lowland Southern England. I’d rather have a benign Bartlett and 15C. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
mulzy replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Scandi high if FI is probably one of the options on the table (after seeing that ECM run). Let’s see what the clusters say.. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
mulzy replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM suggests a mild Xmas for the majority. Lower heights around Iceland suggest this run will continue mild if we get some tragic phasing. Let’s see… -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
mulzy replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It can be consistently wrong. The king (ECM) says no and the UKMO says no - history has taught us coldies that if the UKMO is not in board, you can forget it. Let’s wait for the better ensemble suites (EPS and MOGREPS) to confirm or otherwise the increasingly milder outlook. Not a fan of France Frosty? Any reason for this? -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
mulzy replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM and UKMO say no to chilly Xmas. Let’s see what the EPS and MOGREPS say. Form horse is for the GEFS to flip to mild (may take a few suites though) -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
mulzy replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Question for the experts, has there ever been a time where there was a strong stratospheric PV and *sustained* cold/snow over the UK? -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
mulzy replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Poor charts for the UK this morning. Even though the patterns are from usual, Euro heights is the theme going forward for the next week or so as evidenced in the ops and ensemble suite right out to day 15. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
mulzy replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Day 7 ECM should show heavy snow on the boundary between arctic air and sub tropical air. Northern England / southern Scotland perhaps. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
mulzy replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Word of warning: Little support for the GFS from the GEM and UKMO det runs. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
mulzy replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Euro heights remain a problem in the medium term. Somehow we need these to drain away in the 8-15 day period to deliver us the potential of northern blocking which is still there. One to watch. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
mulzy replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It *is* a pathway to cold. Yes, needs a few things to align but that chart has great potential. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
mulzy replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Write off the UKMO model at your peril. It is still probably an outside chance but that solution is in the mix. It has been supported by a minority (20%ish) of its MOGREPS suite as well. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
mulzy replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
More chance of the latter. This could be the year! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
mulzy replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I am such making an assertion of a chart 180 hours away - it's FI anyway. A pumped Euro ridge is one of the options on the table. There was no mention of certainty - just a comment on a chart. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
mulzy replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Icon 180 hrs is not a good chart. The two lows will phase pumping up the Euro ridge. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
mulzy replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Icon so close to delivering a bullseye for the south… -
Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?
mulzy replied to chionomaniac's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
MOGREPS upgrading all the time. Solid support for it to remain cold. Just a few runs go to mild in London. -
Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?
mulzy replied to chionomaniac's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM day 7 is awesome - only topped by UKMO day 7 in my opinion. What a start to the day - very positive. -
Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?
mulzy replied to chionomaniac's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, but those low heights to the north of the UK are a worry. Hope there is no ugly phasing. Let's see.