ScottSnow

Yeah exactly. Slight wobble away from a clean evolution but like I mentioned a few mins ago, this run reminds me of Dec 09 where we had snow lying for a month, in my location, from mid Dec 09 to mid Jan 10. The general theme remains the same which is all we want at this stage. I am scarred by twenty years of near misses and let downs but hopefully we see it through this time.

To be honest though looking at the run we don’t end up too bad and it reminds me of December 2009. We know what led on from that.

It is only one run but yes I agree it’s not a done deal. All the backslapping the past few days has been a tad premature in my opinion. Ive been a member on here for twenty years and I don’t tell anyone until it’s a couple of days away. In the UK for cold weather if it can go wrong it will. Hopefully this time is different and we see it through. It is only one run and there are going to be wobbles.

The charts at the moment certainly give a feeling of Dec 09/Jan 10. That was a fantastic winter in northern areas. I believe Scotland had its coldest winter on record with some areas having snow on the ground from mid December until early March. I skied in the Pennines on Christmas Eve and Boxing Day and the English ski tows were open until March. I would love to see a similar spell of cold weather.

Yeah I just got my 20 year badge on here a few weeks ago and I understand your point of view. I do feel we are heading in the right direction but I won’t get excited until the charts are a day or two away. ’Once bitten, twice shy’ as the saying goes. Hopefully we get over the line this time.

It depends where you live ? Up here in the north east of England we had a decent spell of cold and snowy weather late Nov/early Dec. Parts of Cumbria had their biggest snowfall (albeit it melted quickly) for many a year as well. Parts of Scotland have had snow throughout the past week. Looking at the models, I do think people were getting a bit too excited about the coming weekend. To my eyes the form horse was always going to be cold and dry (which does me fine). The main thing is the trend this evening remains the same. High pressure migrating northwards next week. The Meto have stuck their neck out (compared to their usual fence sitting) with their Jan forecast and it’s exciting to see the models trending towards what the Meto have forecast. There is going to be further ups and downs but I think we are heading in the right direction.

Definitely one will land one day. We get used to awful winters but we can still get the synoptics to deliver cold or snowy weather. In the last 15 years we’ve had Feb 09, winter 09/10, Dec 10, Feb 12, Jan 13, Mar 13 and Feb/Mar 18. There were also decent cold spells in Dec 22 and Dec 23. Hopefully we see what the models are showing come to fruition. Im too long in the tooth on here to believe it yet but we are trending in the right direction. I do think we are due something memorable though.

For those talking about snow totals. We can’t forecast snow at 24hrs never mind a week or two weeks. Take the December just gone. Parts of the Lake District were buried from snow that popped up at very short notice. I keep saying it but let’s get the cold in first. I have to say the runs lately have been very exciting and when added to the Meto musings, we do seem to have potential for a noteworthy spell of cold weather.

6z continues the theme, which is all we want at the moment.

I don’t get the despondency on here this morning from some members. The theme is still the same as yesterday.

CFS on wetterzentrale leading to Christmas. I don’t place much faith in it but it did ‘seem’ to pick out the late Nov cold well.

Probably 6/10 for my location. We had lying snow from last Wednesday and it snowed everyday from Tuesday to Sunday. Some low temps as well. For my location it was better than last year’s December cold spell. Hopefully it’s just the warm up for the rest of the winter.

Slow thaw here this morning. I just watched John Hammond on the news and he mentioned about cold returning later in the month towards Christmas. Hopefully he’s right.

Pic from my dog walk this evening before it sadly melts tomorrow.

Just looking at the 12zs from a frozen Tyneside where we have five days of snow cover. There is obviously a lot of uncertainty at the moment but the ECMWF has the cold hanging on in northern areas until next weekend, so there could be further surprise snowfall this week for parts of the UK. Very exciting model watching at the moment. Reading the experts take on the background signals, I personally haven’t felt as optimistic about a winter for a long time and I’ve been on here for twenty years later this month.

Not a bad little cold snap really. End up with about 5 days lying snow. Here are some pics from today.

Very cold night last night here in the north east. Looking at the County Durham weather cams there were a couple at -8 just now (Bradbury and Ushaw Moor). We must have got down to -10 somewhere.

The North York Moors look like they have a load of snow going off the road cams so she you should see quite a bit up there.

A couple of pics while I’m walking the dog.

To be fair, I live right of the top of the hill not far from the QE hospital, so we generally do a little bit better than further down towards central Gateshead. It’s amazing what a little bit of height does.

A few more cms overnight and now snowing moderately again.

Just below freezing here now and all the snow starting to freeze up. Definitely pays dividends where I live with it being at the top of the hill. I was at the Metro Centre and Newcastle earlier and there was virtually nothing. Hopefully catch a shower or two overnight.

Coming down nicely here now.

Proper snow now but still not lying. Looking at the radar, we may get a few more showers. Hopefully the temp drops a degree or two.

Bit of a letdown here this evening so far. Started as snow but then turned sleety. As others have mentioned you need to be above 200m to see anything lying.