ScottSnow

To be fair for people who don’t think Scotland begins after Manchester this winter has been good so far. Inland northern areas have had snow cover most days since Xmas Eve. Looking at the models northern England is in for more of the same over next few weeks. We still have another two months of winter weather to come and looking at the models northern areas are rarely far from the cold. Hopefully we see the impacts of the SSW. I for one think especially for my location winter is far from over.

I disagree. The effects of a SSW usually take at least a month to be fully felt at the surface. This coupled with Feb usually being the winter month that the Atlantic is quietest I believe means we have the best chance of prolonged cold weather still in front of us. Also we now have cold air in Scandy Eurasia so if we do get favourable Synoptics they will hopefully produce widespread snow.

Seems to be a lot of pessimism on here today. In my location in the north east we have had a decent winter so far, settling snow on a few occasions and falling snow on a few more. Places higher and further inland up here have had lying snow the majority of the time since before Christmas. Looking at the models the cold air is never far away from Scotland and it will only take a few tweaks here or there for that to come southwards. We have another colder episode next weekend and then moving towards Feb (lots of winter left) the models are hinting at rising pressure to our north east. Now that we have colder air entrenched in Scandy/Eurasia if we do get the Synoptics the models are hinting at we hopefully will see widespread snow even at lower southern elevations.

Beautiful winter’s morning here in Gateshead. Was down to -5 last night.

Raining now here in Gateshead. Wet and pretty miserable. I am moving towards Consett, tired of these non events. Consett have had lying snow most days since before Xmas now.

Yeah this is just south of us and it looks like they have more snow. Expected more than this !

Decent covering here in Gateshead but very wet. Still we have had more snow so far this winter than the last two combined!

18z GFS not looking very good however this is coming up to my 18th year on here and very rarely to we approach a cold spell without a few bad runs. Hopefully we are back where we should be in the morning. If we are still seeing the same by this time tomorrow then it may be time for concern.

It wasn’t cold and mostly we had rain but it wAs a long spell of chilly weather. We had snow on Christmas Eve which gave a covering and gave us a white Christmas. The first one here since 2010. We had a few snowy mornings and a few inches of snow last Thursday and especially Friday which gave a good covering. The higher areas of the North East did very well with lying snow probably for well over a week. Where I live is just that bit too close to the coast and the air was not cold enough and that’s why we mostly got rain or sleet. Hopefully this is is just the starter of this winter and I await the main course.

Strengthening Atlantic is what they are saying but the Meto is different in their outlook.

Better gauge of the depth on this pic

Good couple of inches here in Gateshead. Wet snow but nice to see.

These were taken yesterday near Consett in the north east. Inland areas with height have done okay but the air has not been cold enough for prolonged lowland snow. We have woke up to a few dusting in the morning but anything in the daytime has been rain or sleet. People say don’t get excited but a lot of the ‘respected’ posters were creating the excitement.

Here here

I still think there is potential in the models and looking at the GFS average it keeps the Scandy trough throughout and I think northern areas will likely hang onto to the colder weather. Certainly the higher areas of the north east where I live have had snow since before Xmas. The Met Office update from today looks like they are going for a cold end to the month maybe taking into the effect the SSW. Just going from experience usually we see patterns repeat and hopefully we will see the current patterns repeat but with a colder feed

I got laughed at last week when I stated that this was more of a ‘cool’ spell rather than a ‘cold’ spell. Lying snow is mostly confined to higher areas. Here in the north east inland areas with height have done quite well. Looking at the models most of us will be lucky to have any meaningful snow before mid January. Some people on here were saying that this cold spell was going to be in the UKs all time top ten. I never saw any evidence in the models that this would be the case. If you voice caution on the models you get shot down on here now and in my opinion it stifles debate. From what I can see we have missed the boat this time mainly due to not enough cold pooling in our hemisphere. It looks like it will get a little milder next week although I don’t think it will be excessively mild. The models still have potential and hopefully this will manifest itself as the background signals are promising. Hopefully we will see the benefits of the SSW and later in the month we will get the right Synoptics but this time with the cold pool in place to tap into. The cold air from East Asia is starting to transfer west on the models now. I am no expert and I love cold and snow but shouting down anybody who adds a voice of caution or doesn’t interpret the models as a snowy cold nirvana I believe is the wrong route to go down as a forum.

Yeah I can confirm we have lying snow here in Gateshead NE England. Looking at the models hopefully more snow chances later this week. UKMO has been steady the past couple of weeks and the BBC were hinting that we may see an extended cold spell on the weather yesterday.

I agree and some people got their knickers in a twist when I pointed this out in the Model Output. They are a funny bunch in here sometimes.

We may not and hopefully won’t see that but IMO the cold air from East Asia needs to move westwards. This most likely will not happen until mid month at the earliest with the predicted displacement/split to the vortex. We may see the incursions of milder air until the pattern reloads and we then have a proper pool of cold air to tap into. We see this as at the end of the 18z with much colder air flooding south westwards from Siberia and this was a pattern on earlier runs. Scotland may stay on the cold side throughout but looking at the models that is what I think may happen. Also if it does happen places may see snow as the milder air hits the cold in battleground type scenarios.

I think it would be cold rain apart from inland at height going off the models predicted 850 temps and previous experience. Looking at the models I feel we may have to bear a week or so of milder temps before a renewed bout of cold from the north east. When I say mild not excessively mild but I feel we may have an incursion of milder weather especially in the south. By mid month I feel that the cold pool n East Siberia/East Asia will have moved westwards by the dissolution or reorientation of the Russian High and that will allow us to tap into a much colder pool of air. We are starting to see this week n the later stages of recent GFS runs. At least it is interesting model watching and there should be lots of opportunities for colder conditions and snow moving forward.

It does seem that the models are starting to come together for a sustained spell of cold weather. I notice as each day goes by the cold from East Siberia/Asia is starting to move westwards on the models. We need this trend to continue. This week would of been great if we had a cold pool to tap into. We have been led up the garden path many times before only for things to come crashing down however as you say the background signals are all stacked in our favour this time with the added bonus of a potential SSW.

Yes when the wind is coming from a east or north easterly direction we need lower 850s. If it is coming from a south easterly direction it is blowing in from the continent and that’s when lower 850s will suffice.

My thoughts are similar to that outcome. We need to see movement westwards of the very cold air over East Siberia/Russia so we have sufficient cold to tap in to.

Depends what model you look at. My location is Newcastle so maybe I should say far north of England. We had snow on Xmas Eve and Day so I have already done better than most will from this spell of weather IMO. The GFS Op is on its own this morning in the medium term but how many times have we seen that it picks up something and the others follow.

My Grandma is from Burnley she has some fantastic stories of the deep drifts on the moors around Burnley from the 40s, 50s and 60s.