ScottSnow

Hopefully we see the effects of it. I don’t pretend to know how it works exactly but yes I do know we have had them in the past and they have not had the desired impact. That’s why I say there are no guarantees. IMO the 0z maybe a better route to sustained cold in the long term although we may have to put up with a week or two of milder temps especially if you live in the south. I notice by the end of the run on the 0z we start to see the movement westwards of the cold air over Siberia.

I agree it’s not fantastic output at the moment but I think you should see some snow over next few days. In Scotland you have a better chance than most looking at the models. There does seem to some hefty snow showers moving into the west coast of Scotland. I am hoping to wake up to a covering from the feature moving south over northern England overnight.

The colder air is already digging into Scotland. Looking at the models I would not be surprised for Northern England to wake up to some temporary snow cover tomorrow from the feature moving down the country overnight. Obviously any elevation will help.

We need to see see the entrenched cold over East Siberia / Asia move west. It has started to move at 384hrs on the GFS. Obviously only looking for patterns at this range. Maybe we need to see a week or two of milder weather to help shake the patterns up a bit as it does have the feeling of being stuck at the moment.

Yeah and I have been model watching a long time, I have even been a member of this forum longer than you so I understand the nuances of the models. Hopefully we see a movement of the cold over East Siberia to Scandy/Europe so if we get similar Synoptics later in the winter they will deliver what WE ALL want to see.

So if I see a chart and I have a different interpretation of that chart I am not allowed to state that as I will spoil someone’s excitement ? Are we not allowed to have contrasting views ? Anyway I cannot see any sustained cold and snow until the Russian High moves and we see a displacement westwards of the cold over Eastern Siberia. Until we have a decent cold pool we are going to have our backs against the wall.

None of the models have shown real cold. I stand by that comment and note that there will be no Ice days that in England this week. It’s a week of below average temps that will be marginal at best for snow. Until we get entrenched cold in Europe/Scandy it does not matter what Synoptics we get we will be feeding off scraps.

Well I for one hope you are right but at the moment I don’t see any evidence for that. Plenty of time for things to change but this week from watching the models were only ever going to be a damp squib IMO.

It wasn’t a cold spell it was more of a ‘cool’ spell ! Which they still show but the real cold is too far away which has left us feeding off scraps.

Yeah I know you have been on here a while too so maybe we are too old in the head for this but I agree there was nothing showing in the models to warrant so much excitement.

Let’s get this right. You may have a degree in meteorology and all credit to you if you have but you don’t have the experience of watching these things unfold winter after winter. I specifically remember you saying a week ago that this cold spell will be in the UKs all time top ten. I stated it would not even be in the top 5 from the last 15 years. This is not a dig and I am not here to ruffle feathers there is nobody who loves cold and snow more than me but I have stated the models never showed the depth of cold to warrant all the excitement. Hopefully they soon change but IMO until we see a movement of cold air to our side of the hemisphere we are going to have our backs against the wall. So the Russian High needs to move.

I understand the nuances of the ensembles etc but there have been lots of people mentioning that this spell will be in the top 10 ever in the UK on this forum. The models were never showing this. Until we see that Russian High disappear and a westward shift of the cold air over Siberia then we are going to be in a battle to get any meaningful cold and snow over the UK.

But I am not looking at it over one run. Read what I have said. I have said the models have NEVER shown anything that would be on par with a Jan or Dec 10 due to know cold pooling over Europe or Scandinavia. The models have never shown anything other than a week of ‘cool’ temps. All the cold weather is in Asia at the moment and until that (if) transfers west then we are going to be up against it. I have been model watching since you were in nappies and have been lead up the garden path too many times. This time I did not see anything that warranted such excitement.

A lot of people on here were over optimistic about this ‘cool’ spell. The models were just not showing enough cold in our part of the world for this to be anything more than a few days of below average temps with some snow on the hills or temporarily in a few lucky lowland spots. The talk on here of another Jan 10, Dec 10 etc was incredulous. I have been on this forum for 17 years and I love cold and snow but people were setting themselves up for a fall. Here’s hoping we get some proper winter weather soon.

I live in higher part of Gateshead near Wrekentom. Lots of snow showers through the day. A covering on cars, paths and grass. Going to feel quite festive in morning. Always do well off a northerly here.

Yes the potential is there looking at the charts. As always higher northern areas have the best chance but definitely the potential for some lowland snowfall.

Snowing here in Gateshead. 1C.

It’s snowing here in Gateshead this morning and lying. Hopefully a sign of things to come. The models this morning maintain the cold theme.

Looking at the bbc monthly forecast that was updated today it looks like they are now favouring a lengthy cold spell especially for northern areas.

I hope you are right but I just can’t see it but fingers crossed!

You must be looking at something different to me. I have been on here since 2004 and I could name 5 spells just since then that this WILL not compare to. Feb/Mar 05, Dec/Jan 10, Dec 10, Jan 13, Mar 13 and Feb/Mar 18. There is potential for snow on higher ground but it’s not cold enough for disruptive low level snow. I would love to be wrong but just don’t see it IMO.

We had a decent snow event here at the end of Oct 2012

Mountains in Highland Scotland had some of deepest snow ever recorded but there was virtually no snow below 1500ft.

Ive been a member on here since 2003. So ive been through it all. Yes I agree this winter has been rubbish so far but as people have said its only Jan 28th and we are forecast snow THIS WEEK ! End of Feb 2004 - 1ft here in a Gateshead off straight northerly Feb/March 2005 - two week cold spell Feb/March 2006 - cold spell and big snow event on the 12th March Mar 20th 2007 - Potent northerly giving snow to east coast Mar/April 2008 - several snow events countrywide Feb 2010 - Multiple snow events particularly big snowfall end of Feb in Scotland 2ft in places April 2010 - On 1st Possibly biggest single fall of snow that year in parts of Scotland after snowiest winter in years Just a few snowy episodes that I remember falling later in the winter and into spring. Probably best example this decade is Mar/Apr 2013 . Nearly a months worth of cold weather coming in spring with big countrywide snow event on 21st Mar and northern hills absolutely loaded with snow. Theres still plenty of time yet for something to happen. Comes down to luck really and in years like this patience really is a virtue. Last year we were spoilt with snow all the way through from November to April so this year is more like a normal winter.

Obviously depends on your location nationally and even locally things can be very different within a couple of miles. Its still snowing here in Gateshead and has snowed everyday since last Sunday. In terms of duration it hasnt matched Feb/Mar 05, Dec/Jan 09/10, Nov/Dec 10, Jan 13 or Mar 13.The days leading up to Sunday 25th were chilly and it was a gradual build up to the main event which was something I enjoyed. It has been a quite severe few days here in Gateshead especially Tuesday and Wednesday, a respectable amount of snow and drifting even at very low elevations. Even roads around Gateshead have been closed because of snow due to the wind. The cold has been notable with three consecutive ice days on Tues/Wed/Thur. For this location I would rank it behind Nov/Dec 10 and Dec/Jan 09/10 as they both had the duration, depth of cold and lots of snow. Jan 13 lasted nearly two weeks and was very snowy here but it was very marginal with temps just above freezing a lot of the time and didnt have the potency of this current spell. I would have this spell just ahead of Jan 13, it may not have the duration but it packed more of a punch. Feb/Mar 05 would be next with Mar 13 last. We were just a little bit low and close to the coast in that spell. One event that rarely gets mentioned but proves its all about right time and place was the northerly of late Feb 04. Here in Gateshead there was around 20cm from a single event during the night Fri 27th.