ScottSnow

Thanks for clearing that up. I must have misread something on here and used it as a reason to dismiss the GFS . I think the main thing is that all models are showing blocking to our north. We have a ticket for the game and fingers crossed it will be a good game. The ECMWF has been fairly steady over recent runs so let’s hope it proves to be the correct evolution.

The GFS seems to have been all over the place since the reported upgrade (that apparently is less accurate).

Yes, no point in looking at small details at this stage. Let’s get the cold air in the place first then we can start looking at snow chances. There seems to be such a strong blocking signal to our north that we would be extremely unlucky to not get anything out of this modelling. I’ve been on here for twenty years and have experienced so many let downs. Last Christmas just one example. However, sometimes the pieces do fall into place such as Feb 21, Jan 13,Feb 2018 to name some notable spells from the past decade. Let’s try and keep calm, keep our fingers crossed and hopefully see it verify this time. One note of caution is that the Met aren’t on board yet, which is a concern, although that may change next week.

Yes there’s no point in looking at small details in every run. At the moment we should just be looking for the overall theme, which at the moment is for a blocking signal and a gradual cooling down. Certainly there is potential for colder conditions. Let’s hope that potential is realised. Twenty years on here has taught me to err on the side of caution until I actually see the white stuff with my own eyes.

Yes if this weekend has shown anything is get the cold in first and the snow possibilities will follow. Here in Gateshead we have had three days of falling snow and two days of lying snow. Some areas in the Pennines have had a really good dumping. The signs are good and it seems we are seeing a gradual increase in the forecast severity of the next cold snap. Interesting model watching for sure.

I am not saying it is a complete right off and like I said we are heading in the right direction. I have been on this forum for nearly twenty years (I was on the first people to join), and what I have seen in the past is often with this setup with the mid Atlantic ridge is that the pattern repeats and can get gradually more potent each time. So although I don’t think next week will be much to write home about, I would hope that we may see a better outcome further down the line. We can see in the models that they are looking to head down this ‘rinse, repeat’ cycle.

It looks like we are heading in the right direction but to my eye unless you live in the north and at elevation it’s nothing to write home about.

I am supposed to be playing golf in Eyemouth on the 27th. It’s just where the red dot is on the north east coast !

The height of your location will help with any marginal events. It’s always the same in the UK. Height and a bit of distance from the coast is always best.

Yeah from what I remember there was a week of cold frosty before the snow came. Hopefully this coming spell is a bit more potent and long lasting than Nov 2005z

Yeah I concur, generally we are looking for things to move west but in this case it’s the opposite. I have a feeling the GFS is just toying with possible outcomes at this stage so I wouldn’t stress too much about it, and it looks like the overall pattern for colder weather is locked in as even on the GFS it throws up cold possibilities at the end of the run. The background signals suggest a longer spell as well. The ECMWF would be good for my location, if still preferably the pattern was a little further east.

I live in the north east of England and we did well last winter especially the early February event. The building blocks look to be place in place over the coming weeks. The ECMWF is excellent tonight and there is a steady progression towards the colder weather. The similar background signals as 2010 are uncanny. Hopefully we aren’t led up the garden path like so many times in the past.

Decent covering here in Gateshead near the QE. Been snowing on and off all day but just had the heaviest shower so far. Think I will end up decent depth by Wednesday if the showers keep coming.

Yes when I look across the valley to Whickham, Sunnyside etc you can often see the snow line above the metro centre, Dunston etc. With there being so many hills around here there can be huge variations in snowcover over small areas. Been snowing more or less all day here but very light and not amounting to much. Hoping it becomes heavier and more organised overnight.

Yes we get a lot more snow than the surrounding areas due to that little bit of height. When I quote snow depths I always try to say my location near the QE as often there is very little in Gateshead town centre and people may think you are exaggerating.

It does make a difference, looking around the Gateshead, Newcastle, north Durham area you could see lower areas had little lying snow. Earlier today the air wasn’t as cold as it is now. That is why when you see weather forecasts they always forecast more snow for higher ground. There can be no snow at Gateshead centre but up here we can have a good couple of inches. This is a common occurrence each winter.

I live in the highest part of Gateshead near the QE hospital and it has been lying here all day but I went down to the Team Valley at 1pm and there was no lying snow there. Just shows what a difference even a small amount of height can make. Here is a picture of my location now.

Been snowing lightly all day here in Gateshead near the QE hospital. Light covering on all surfaces that is blowing into small drifts in the wind. Hoping the shower activity becomes more organised and intense tomorrow.

Starting to turn to snow here in Gateshead by the QE hospital.

Looking at the 18z, from experience this winter we have seen the Atlantic struggle to make inroads north and east and Scotland has been cold since before Christmas with lots of snow in the Highlands, I can’t see the Atlantic breaking through so quickly when it hasn’t all winter. I expect to see the cold spell lengthened in the coming days especially for northern and eastern parts. Certainly going to be some high snow totals for eastern areas. I for one cannot wait. Certainly a positive for snow lovers in such depressing times !

Yeah I did say further up if we get a cold spell and a few more snowy episodes by the end of March I will be happy. Higher areas towards Stanley/Consett have had lying snow most days since Xmas Eve. While I live slightly lower than them locations I have done fairly well. It has actually snowed a lot more days but I was just the wrong side of marginal for lying snow. Here is a selection of photos taken this winter.

Tbh really shows how bad it is nowadays that we consider this winter decent !

This winter IMBY has been decent. Lots of days of falling snow and quite a few with lying snow. Certainly been very marginal but I have a bit of height which has made the difference. If we get a decent Feb/Mar and we see a cold spell of at least 5 days and a couple more snowy episodes I will be happy. So far it’s certainly been better than most winters of the past ten years.

Plenty of snow here in Gateshead. Good covering still on grass and north facing pavements. I live near the QE hospital which is the highest point in Gateshead. I know there is not nearly as much lower down. The pic was from just after 10:30pm.

Just watching the 06z roll out. We have been unlucky so far this winter. The early part it was the Russian High stopping the cold now it is the high to our south the Azores High which is preventing the cold. There are signs that we will see lower pressure to our south but at the moment that’s all they are. At the minute we are in kind of no mans land between the cold to our north and the warmth to the south.