ScottSnow

Yeah I’ve just had a quick look through and I would say at least a third went down the Scandy high route.

Nowt here apart from the light flurry earlier

Snowing lightly here in Gateshead

Looks like we might me be in with a chance of a couple cms this week. Its going to be locations close enough to the coast to catch the showers but far enough away/high enough for it to lie. Stanley will probably get something. I’m hoping my location gets lucky.

Obviously the model thread is for dissecting the different model runs but we have a week of cold weather and hopefully snow in some locations. I don’t get the doom and gloom especially after all the wet weather we have had lately. Cold and dry will make a nice change. Anything after Sunday is still up in the air at this stage and I think the signs are still positive. Im still going for the cold to linger next week, then a relaxation before further cold inroads from mid December. This purely down to my understanding (albeit limited) of the models and the musings of the experts on here. At the end of the day, we do live in Britain and it’s always going to be a long shot to keep the Atlantic at bay completely.

18z looks great out to 264hrs and goes with what I said earlier that if we keep the high pressure to our north, then we are always in with a chance of the cold returning. Especially with such cold air in Scandinavia.

What does that show ? I don’t know how to interpret it.

We had a few cms up here but it was very poor for the length/depth of cold we had. Hopefully we see more snow this year but a change from the wet weather will also be welcome.

I think we have a better chance than most areas in the UK. I do feel that it will be marginal so the usual areas like Stanley/Consett will probably see a bit but i doubt coastal areas will see anything settling.

Only 4 members go up to zero at the end with the majority keeping it around minus 5 850s throughout. Looks good to me.

I don’t think that is correct. Even the models that are showing Atlantic influence later in the runs, are still showing high pressure to out north. Even if we do see a relaxation of the cold next week, I think we still have a chance of further cold and hopefully snowy weather later in December. Just take the ECMWF at 240hrs which is showing high pressure to our north east. There will be plenty of interesting weather to keep us talking over the next week and I think some decent local snowfall. Some of the best snowfall I have seen has cropped up at very short notice. Late Feb 2004 in my location comes to mind straightaway.

More positive charts this evening. Looks like the cold will stick around until next week at least with further opportunities hopefully after that. Regarding snowfall, I don’t think it will be widespread, but the old adage of ‘get the cold in first’ still remains. I can definitely see some surprises locally. Im hoping that I am just enough inland with a bit of height to see some white stuff this week. I fear I’m 5/10 miles to close to the coast.

If all the models were in agreement all of the time, we would have nothing to talk about. Things are still looking positive. GFS is known to be overly progressive at times and we still seem to keep high pressure to our north which always gives us a chance. My opinion is that we will see this current spell last until around the 8th Dec before a relaxation and then renewed cold later in December. Some areas will see snow this week but it’s unlikely to be widespread.

Great charts this evening. Hopefully we continue to see upgrades. From past experiences, I do think my own location won’t do particularly well next week for snow but further down the line we may do better. I’m sure some members on here will see snow. Definitely a bit of height will help to begin with.

That’s my line of thinking also. Most important thing is for the blocking to the north to remain, which it looks like it will, which means there will still be chances further down the line. Like you say though the models haven’t resolved next week yet. I remain hopeful.

Basically, in the main I’m still positive, but there are a few worrying signs. The models all look a bit messy. More runs are needed. If we didn’t have these twists and turns, model watching wouldn’t be as fun !

I think the 18z is a good run. Different synoptics but the general theme of northern blocking remains the same.

I think I mentioned this event the other day. Yes we did see a little snow but it was a complete letdown from what was modelled. It was a good winter overall with a notable cold spells in Jan and March.

I get that you want to keep your feet on the ground. At the moment all I am looking for is signs/patterns. I am positive the way things are heading. I did mention the other day that Dec 2012 was very similar to this and that did end up a damp squib so we do need to tread with caution as you have mentioned.

Lots of bickering in here this morning. Nothing is going to be nailed synoptically yet. In my view all we should be looking for is signs of a pattern change and to me all the models are showing that it will likely get colder soon. To what extent and how they differ of course, but that is to be expected at this stage. Yes things can go pear shaped but I think the past few days have been a step in the right direction and that’s all we can ask for at the moment.

Unbelievable really. On the second half of the run, hardly any even above average and none majorly so. The models are definitely sensing something.

I don’t hold much in faith in CFS but I do view for viewing sake really. One thing I noticed over the past few months was that it was consistently modelling the end of Nov/Dec with blocking to the north of the UK.

I’ve been on this forum for a long time. Longer than some members have probably been alive. I feel old. One thing I have noticed in the past is that the best cold spells generally start with a ‘warm up event’ or ‘precursor’. Generally the first wave isn’t the best but it builds up afterwards. I get the feeling we may be seeing that now. I’ve never seen northern blocking modelled this consistently. I think we will be unfortunate not to see some form of cold spell over the next few weeks. Don’t count our chickens yet. I seem to remember Dec 2012 was very similar in that we we’re seeing great charts from the GFS, ECMWF etc and although we did get a little snow in places, we didn’t get the long cold spell we all thought was on the cards. It can go wrong quickly. Interestingly that winter turned out very good overall particularly January and March.

There is lots going on and it’s great model watching to be honest. I’ve been on this forum 20 years and been led up the garden path so many times, you would think I would learn but I still fall for them, even after being let down so many times.

These pics taken on A69 earlier today. If you enlarge and zoom in they are clearer. A couple of mins earlier it had very prominent funnel all the way to the ground.