ScottSnow

I took these earlier today on the A69 in Northumberland. The first picture, the funnel was actually touching the ground with a clear form all the way to the ground. The picture is a couple of mins later when it had dissipated somewhat.

Absolutely freezing here this morning. It’s -1.5 but feels much colder. Although I haven’t had as much snow as I would have liked this has still been a good cold spell with snow lying now for 9 days and quite a few ice days as well. Hopefully still more to come from this winter as it’s only December.

Not really lately there hasn’t. The mid 2000s had a few bad years but generally the past ten years the mountains have always had enough snow for skiing from Jan-April. There were some big snow years in there as well with winter 2014 being particularly snowy. I think there is still potential in the models and I notice the Met Office are hinting at cold in early Jan.

Yeah I mentioned this earlier. GEM has been the most consistent model recently IMO so we still have hope.

GEM seems to be one of the better models to my eye. A lot less flip flopping compared to GFS.

Nowt here overnight

Light snow shower here about twenty mins ago. Hopefully we get a bit more tonight.

A couple of light snow showers here overnight topping up the light cover we already had.

Been out and about this morning. Snow is localised to area’s with a bit of height. Nothing in the Team Valley but here at the top of Gateshead we have about an inch. Very cold this morning so can’t see it melting much. Note the first picture how it is green in the valley.

I have seen a few on here mention this spell being similar to 2010. Nov/Dec 2010 was historic with Dec ending up one of the coldest of the past 100 years. This spell was never going to get to that standard IMO, although I have snow outside now and there should be more opportunities over the next week. It could still be a notable spell similar to Jan 13. The models aren’t showing the depth of cold that we had in 2010.

Not bad here tbh but I do have a bit of height. Probably in the valley there is very little. We do have another 7 days so I would imagine there will be further opportunities for snow.

I note the Met Office are hinting the cold spell is going to hang around for some time as well. Obviously the data they are looking at is showing them similar to the above.

The snow has arrived here (pic taken an hour ago with no melting since). Looks like we are going to see a lengthy cold spell. The models don’t really show any threat of a breakdown in the reliable timeframes. It would be great if this hung in until Christmas.

Nice covering here in Gateshead. Everything freezing up now so the roads will be interesting tomorrow morning. The picture is from around 6pm but no melting since then.

Not for me. I would love it cold all the way until mid March.

Well 09/10 winter the cold lasted all through the winter particularly the northern half of the UK. The main part was mid December 09 to mid Jan 10 but there was further cold at the end of Jan and throughout Feb. The Nov/Dec 10 spell started 24th Nov and lasted till the 9th Dec, there was a milder interlude and then further cold weather from 16th Dec to 26th Dec. December 2010 was the one of the coldest Decembers on record so this spell would have to be of historic proportions to beat it.

Yes I agree. Trying to remember that far back is difficult but I am pretty sure 2010 upgraded. Mar 2013 certainly did.

Tonight’s runs reinforce my view that the current evolution is very similar to Mar/Apr 2013. That spell lasted over a month and was one of the coldest March’s of the past hundred years.

I think we can almost guarantee that some shower activity will pop up (and likely become more organised) nearer to the time particularly near the coasts. I think the old adage of get the cold in first and then worry about snow chances applies here.

Slightly off topic but I did notice a lot of fruit and nuts on the trees this autumn. One plum tree doesn’t have fruit every year but it was laden this year. The last two times it’s bore fruit were autumns 2012 and 2017. This current pattern reminds me of Mar/Apr 13. Initial northerly blast, cold hanging around, an Atlantic incursion that the cold won, cold hangs on with further snow in places. All told the spell lasted about a month. That was after earlier cold spells in Dec 12, Jan and Feb 13. On the models, we are seeing the cold spell starting to be extended and Scandinavia starting to get very cold. The low seems to be modelled to take a more southerly route or stall close to the south of the UK. Some places may hit the jackpot. I would say we are due a snowy winter this year and once northern blocking becomes established it is hard to move. Think of Dec/Jan 09/10, 2013, and even 17/18 winter to an extent. Hopefully the cold will hang on till Christmas but even if it doesn’t I think there will be further reloads down the road. As others have mentioned we won’t snow chances until hours ahead in the initial northerly blast over the next few days. Main thing as snow lovers is too enjoy it when it does arrive.

Going off the models currently we are looking at a 7 day cold spell. That is nothing to be sniffed at. Also the cold isn’t even here yet so things could still change. The lows could take a more southerly route which would extend the cold spell beyond 7 days. There is still blocking to our north and plenty of possibilities for a longer cold spell. Main thing is just to enjoy it. I for one am looking forward to seeing my first snow of the season.

Sleet shower here at the moment.

Sleet shower here just now. Shows the air is getting colder.

One thing that I have noticed is that as the evolution has came into the closer timeframes the 850 temps seem to have got colder. If you look at Tues/Weds next week they are pretty cold now. It seems like they have upgraded which holds us in good stead for the rest of the cold spell. As for yesterdays ECMWF 12z, I never worry unless you start to see two bad runs in a row. There are going to be good runs and bad runs but the overall pattern is strong. The pattern does remind me of March 2013, I have always said that if that happened in winter then it wouldn’t have just been the higher areas that got buried. From a personal standpoint I am starting to get confident that I will at least get a covering here in the north east of England.

Yes some excellent people on here sharing their knowledge. Great to see the ECMWF continue its excellent evolution. It is starting to creep into the +144hrs timeframe now.