[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

3 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Nick, you can come out now they’ve had nothing noteworthy down South just like us.

Lol

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

Seems same everywhere - just got the Spurs match on saying they were worried about potential snow but have only had a flurry 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

Lordstones

 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

In honesty the meto and bbc etc never really forecast heavy snow. It’s a definite showery some will and some won’t scenario 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

Odd bit of graupel here in Billingham. Not feeling it at present , doesn’t feel like a 2018. Early days mind and we aren’t reallly in the easterly flow though it’s later than predicted that’s for sure. Tomorrow looks like the main chance then a drier few days 

rob

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Looks like around 50/50 spit in the models between the return to something less harsh or the potential for something even harsher. Was surprised to see the high sink on the ecm. Really fascinating at the minute

 

 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

Just now, Boro Snow said:

Rain in Darlo , Not much happening behind this front

No looks like a lack of showers behind the front. Maybe the easterly will cause the unstable flow once we get the long fetch across the North Sea? 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

Just been out to the bbq still mainly rain. Wood pellet grill before anyone thinks I’ve gone (more) insane 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

21 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Am I missing something I thought the rain was forecast and it was only meant to start turning to snow later on tonight for most of the region? 

Interestingly that depends on the model - gfs was really keen on snow here from 3pm, ukmo more near midnight 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

4 minutes ago, snowmackem said:

Hi mate. My daughter goes to school there. Not really high, probably about 70m asl?

Oh right - he says it’s a good school now - really improved over last few years 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

6 hours ago, snowmackem said:

Working in Prudhoe, live in Ryton. Finish work at 7, fully expecting to be driving home in falling snow with a light covering! Any more guesses?

Mate of mine works in Ryton at thorp academy - quite high up isn’t it ?

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

I’m very nervous - for once though there’s nothing marginal I just want to see convection 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

Just had the dog out and difference from just this morning is amazing - wind is biting and it hasn’t even dug in yet - it’ll be bitter this week 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

1 minute ago, Boro Snow said:

Actually I am getting concerned now BBC showing no snow for me Sun to Wed 

Me too - Sunday changed to light cloud and Monday heavy snow showers have changed to light. Doesn’t feel like a repeat of 2018 at this stage 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

9 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Latest me office forecast by John Hammond showed snow showers piling in on Sunday 

I hope so 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

BBC website forecast for my location has changed to heavy snow showers on Monday rather than light 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

31 minutes ago, Bridgeport Harrison said:

How many times have you warned people about the forecast ?

I’ve tried to restrain myself as it usually spells the end ! I called the 2018 spell with family a week and a half out and was roundly dismissed - was quite smug 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

Getting quite excited now in a child like way !

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

10 minutes ago, Dahonis said:

Typical that Weardale Ski at St John's chapel is shut due to covid. It would of been excellent skiing this winter, and even better come the weekend and onwards. I've not seen Gav's video's for a while, but I do like them. He uses layman's terms and even I can understand them. I hopefully will be posting pictures from around the NE whilst at work. I'm 48 and feel like I'm 10 at the moment

You aren’t on your own mate I’m 48 too and have just checked the line of sight to the lamppost 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Just now, AppleUK 123 said:

I really wouldn't worry about that, from what I've read on this thread the ICON is not good at forecasting convection so if anything this probably an underestimate of precip. 

Yeah I suppose in the last 15 years on the forums the main message has been get  the cold here and then see. All the 12z models show DP and 850s well into the territory of snow I think it’ll come down to the usual. Interestingly there are certain places that even within this region consistently do well 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Quick look at the ICON shows the precip is further SE on the 18Z compared to 12Z

Doesn’t seem to show any shower activity inland which doesn’t seem plausible 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Can anyone shed some light on this ? When I look at the 12z uppers from Sunday onwards look to be quite severe for the north east. I’d also expect quite a lot of activity from the North Sea in the stuff easterly breeze. In anticipation I have had a look at the met office forecast for Stockton on tees and it shows mainly light sleet showers ? How can that possibly be right ? Which model is producing that output ?

rob

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

4 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

Longer sea track

thats right

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

i love the 6z - after 15 years on here its amazing to see something this rare actually happen - id have preferred next year though - going to make a serious mess of the vaccine rollout  - may set us back over a week

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

06z looks really interesting for anywhere in the east. Looks like days of radar watching. With little thaw the whole of eastern England could see a gradual build up much like 2018 where we had no frontal activity but 6 inches after a few days of showers. Charts like these but not in FI? Eh?