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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    The worrying trend is that the - NAO is getting pushed back all the time. It is like chasing a rainbow... At some point, December was the start of the -NAO but now we are looking at late January! Karyo
  2. karyo
    You can try this link for a look further ahead: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/naoindex.png It is reasonably reliable for up to 4 weeks ahead and then it varies considerably from run to run.
  3. karyo
    My concern remains that at the 30hpa level no significant warming is showing up. Karyo
  4. karyo
    I think we need to be very cautious until the stratospheric warming gets picked up by the ECM.
  5. karyo
    I am also talking about the 30hpa level, not further down.
  6. karyo
    Quite a notable downgrade today re: the warming in FI. It is particularly evident at the 30hpa level where the oranges have disappeared completely. There can of course be a variation in the intensity of the warming from run to run which we have seen on recent days but today we had 4 consecutive runs that have downgraded the warming. Let's hope for a better day tomorrow. Karyo
  7. karyo
    You can check the stratosphere on the gfs net weather site: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc
  8. karyo
    Actually, the warming looked much better in yesterday's GFS runs and it was starting earlier.
  9. karyo
    Indeed and the NAO forecast is not for the fainthearted! http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/naoindex.png
  10. karyo
    I have to say I agree with the above and I can see this pattern lasting for some time with nothing major in terms of cold. I expressed yesterday a concern that the models looked quite flat after next weekend's northerly and today not only they continue to look flat but the northerly has been downgraded substantially so a poor day of model watching.
  11. karyo
    The MJO seems to be making it to phase 6 now but still expected to die before entering 7. We could so do with a push here! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Karyo
  12. karyo
    Yes, the warming is coming closer which is good but I think we will need to see the beginnings of a stronger event at the end of the run.
  13. karyo
    Are you expecting the forecasted warming to get upgraded? I would think a separate wave/warming would be needed after that. Where is the panic? I just say what I see on the GFS.
  14. karyo
    Disappointing morning output across the board. It seemed yesterday that we could squeeze the best out of a bad situation (as there is no northern blocking) but today the models are serving us something much more average and expected given the situation. With the stratosphere getting colder and the mean zonal winds on the up I can't see any significant wintry spell coming up. We have to hope that the anticipated major stratospheric warming happens at the end of the month to give us a promising January so that's what we have to look out for. Karyo
  15. karyo
    Well, the warming is still there on the 0z GFS but to me it doesn't look any better than the one we had in November. In fact, it doesn't seem to affect the strength of the vortex even if you look at the last frame (384 hours). So the wait continues. Karyo
  16. karyo
    In a way we are making the best of a bad situation but I also get the feeling that our luck may be running out looking at the models past next weekend. We need a stratospheric warming pronto!
  17. karyo
    Great to see the ECM offering wintry potential for next weekend in particular. The chart that Cloud 10 posted is snowfest even with -4 uppers as there is a slack flow from the land. Of course, that's only a possibility at this stage but nice to see. On the other hand, both the GFS and the ECM seem confident in flattening the pattern after next weekend and tuning mild with no heights in the Arctic. Karyo
  18. karyo
    Disappointing 0z GFS as it downgrades the warming and pushes it back too!
  19. karyo
    The stratospheric warming is upgraded on the 12z. At the 30hpa level is starts to kick in at 336 hours which is of course FI but very importantly it is coming closer compared to yesterday's runs. Just a question, is this the main warming that we are expecting (perhaps starting a bit earlier than planned) or a pre-SSW warming event? Karyo
  20. karyo
    At least the Azores high is looking subdued here with troughing getting into the continent and it should not be overly mild for the UK.
  21. karyo
    What is more disappointing is the model output so far today. Sunday's northwesterly has been downgraded and the outlook after that looks very uninspiring for cold.
  22. karyo
    Who knows, it may have some effect but I doubt it will send shockwaves to the atmosphere across the globe. If it goes north then it may have more of an effect but even then it can just be absorbed by the jet as it crosses the Pacific.
  23. karyo
    Ok, is that moving any closer?
  24. karyo
    How does the super typhoon make models struggle when they all show a generally mobile Atlantic outlook? They are all in agreement with no major high latitude blocking on the horizon. There was a similar super typhoon a year ago that hit Philipines which didn't lead to a pattern change for us.
  25. karyo
    It first showed up in yesterday's 6z but now almost 24 hours later it is still in the 384hour chart - it hasn't moved closer.
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