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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    Yes, there's been numerous warmings on the Asian side which have not benefited us as they tended to push the polar vortex towards our side. That's where the frustration is that the forecasted Atlantic warming has a much better chance to lead to favourable blocking for us but I can't help but feel that it needs more strength. If only it could upgrade in future runs.
  2. karyo
    No frost here either as cloud interference kept the temperature above 0c. It's been an underwhelming cold spell in terms of temperatures and it is coming to an end today as a southwesterly flow is already starting. According to the Met Office, the first two weeks of January are looking grim for cold!
  3. karyo
    We have to see the funny side especially when we consider how promising the signals for this winter were a couple of months ago. Frustrating to see the stratospheric forecast at 30hpa level. Warming gets going over north Atlantic edging towards the southern tip of Greenland and then it just recedes and the polar vortex re-organises after a brief stretch.
  4. karyo
    Agreed, but the GFS operational has upgraded the stratospheric warming over the Atlantic which is nice to see.
  5. karyo
    No worries.
  6. karyo
    I really don't get John's comments sometimes! That's what netweather is supposed to encourage John, thinking and discussion! Otherwise, there will be no posts and no netweather! Karyo
  7. karyo
    Yes, the gas pollution warning has also been removed. I think we are heading towards the end of the fissure eruption and as Barda is calming down it could be that there won't be a collapse or any sort of big bang.
  8. karyo
    Can this have an effect on the MJO?
  9. karyo
    We have seen this before, the models showing frequent incursions of polar maritime air with wintriness even at lower levels but as we approach the T0, those incursions move further and further norts and in the end we end up with average or even mild weather. This is because the models have the tendency to overdo the extend of those incursions. Like other posters have already said, tropospherically, there is nothing promising in the models today.
  10. karyo
    Etna is pretty active tonight! This photo was posted on volcanocafe: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10203391660815581&set=gm.367518616765174&type=1&theater Karyo
  11. karyo
    Maybe if you make the effort to read Matt's post you will understand...
  12. karyo
    Unsurprisingly, the ECM has come down to earth with a much less amplified 12z output. The potential for a wintry northwesterly at the 144 - 168 hour range has vanished apart from the highest tops of Scotland. Matt Hugo wrote an excellent post on the stratosphere thread yesterday explaining why the current stratospheric warming will not benefit our side of the Atlantic. I suggest people read it.
  13. karyo
    28th February! Beautiful!
  14. karyo
    It is great if you like a windy, rainy set up.
  15. karyo
    That's interesting Nick. I wonder what caused such a drop!
  16. karyo
    Agreed if there was a chance for a cold spell the GEFS would be showing it. I expect the ECM to lose its amplification later today.
  17. karyo
    I hope it is the coldest night of the winter so far , otherwise it will be another sad winter.
  18. karyo
    The GFS doesn't want to know though...
  19. karyo
    Doesn't the OPI signal get weaker as the days get longer? I remember reading some posts saying that back in October.
  20. karyo
    I also feel like that sometimes but moving to a different country would be even better for snow and cold.
  21. karyo
    Agreed! I can't see this pattern flipping so easily. Greenland seems totally unable to get any pressure rise so far this winter.
  22. karyo
    1/3 of the winter is gone and with the forecasts we are looking well into January now. So there's the half winter.
  23. karyo
    Thank you Matt, your post summarises perfectly where we are going. A bit depressing to read but it is better to know.
  24. karyo
    All those showers to the west and southwest of the region are of rain/sleet? Now I am glad they miss I came home at 5am from a night out and there was no frost or ice. It is pathetic when in a cold spell in late December you can't even get a frost! That should hopefully change tonight and tomorrow night.
  25. karyo
    I guess that was inevitable with the flow starting to come from the Irish sea. The showers tomorrow should also be of rain along the coast and a wintry mix further inland. Good for the Pennines though.
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