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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    A SSW could help us to get a proper Greenland high. What becomes apparent once more is that the models have overestimated the pressure rise in Greenland. As the time of a forecasted Greenland high approaches the models weaken the heights there and in the end we end up with a toppler or nothing. Is there something that has changed in the Greenland area that doesn't allow heights there during the Greenland months?
  2. karyo
    Disappointing read to be honest. We were hoping for a SSW in late December/early January and now this is pushed back to late January (if it happens). It is becoming clear that the cold hearted winter forecast is in jeopardy!
  3. karyo
    The 6z gfs downgrades the heights in Greenland further! This is really evident at the 150 hour mark.
  4. karyo
    The big difference in the 18z is that the Greenland high is a blink and you miss it affair hence the cold outbreak is very short lived and we get an Atlantic flow pretty quickly while the 12z had a long lasting northerly.
  5. karyo
    The problem is that the ECM was the first model to introduce the shortwave drama and then the other models followed so the extremely west based -NAO solution could be a new trend.
  6. karyo
    Not never but that's how most of our cold spells fail.
  7. karyo
    It may be nice to see but the cold spells are always after the 144 hour range. This is because shortwaves are not picked up well at this range.
  8. karyo
    Is it though? Every run has the shortwaves over Iceland and southern Greenland. They appear time and time again and that's a huge stumbling block for us.
  9. karyo
    Once again it is shortwave galore around southern Greenland and Iceland. Doesn't look good to me.
  10. karyo
    The ECM has been going for this west based -NAO for several runs now so that's very concerning and given that the other models are not as good as they were earlier (in particularly the GFS) then I think the cold spell is in danger of not happening.
  11. karyo
    Does it matter whether the GFS Operational or P got the pattern right? They have both downgraded the potential cold spell. That's all that matters until we see what the ECM has to offer.
  12. karyo
    To add to this, the CFS extended NAO forecasts agrees with a notable drop next week but it goes back to positive ground in time for January. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/naoindex.png
  13. karyo
    The most significant difference is the size, deepness and roundness of the low to the north of us.
  14. karyo
    Interesting clip showing fast flowing lava in Cape Verde islands as the eruption is continuing. http://news.yahoo.com/volcanic-eruption-cape-verde-destroys-villages-130602449.html Karyo
  15. karyo
    I wonder if we will have to have to make do with small or moderate warmings rather than a SSW? If that's the case, we will have to see if they will be enough to disrupt the vortex sufficiently.
  16. karyo
    That's at the end of the GFS run i.e. distant FI. The trend is the reliable and semi reliable timeframe is worse than 24 hours ago. The end of GFS can show an ice age or a heatwave but I won't take notice until it comes in the +200 hours range.
  17. karyo
    But the UKMO has been prone to overamplification at the 120-144 hour timeframe time and time again this season.
  18. karyo
    Sadly that's the trend that we have in front of us for the reliable timeframe. I was focusing on next weekend in case a little more amplification could give us a better northwesterly shot but that's gone downhill too.
  19. karyo
    Agreed! It really brings memories of the terrible winters of the early 2000's with that inflates Azores high moving into central and southern Europe.
  20. karyo
    It is always at the very end of the run though isn't it? As for the CFS, what can I say, I think most of us would prefer a cold hearted winter as opposed to early spring snow.
  21. karyo
    I am not saying it is not around the corner. It may well be that it happens in the 2nd week of January as you say but it can easily be the 4th week of January or even February. From what I read in Cohen's previous update, he was not expecting the persistence of the NW Asia low at it doesn't fit with the high snowcover extend that we saw through autumn. This is causing delays and the longer it stays the more delays we are likely to see.
  22. karyo
    Well, the stratospheric warming needs to happen first before we have a chance at a colder outlook. According to the MERRA site, the stratospheric temperatures at 50hpa level are about average now. http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_50_2014_merra.pdf It seems to me that low pressure has a love affair with southern Greenland and Iceland this season and it will take something major to shift it. A SSW could achieve this when/if it happens but we could be here waiting for it in a month's time. Karyo
  23. karyo
    I don't like the sound of this! So we could be looking at a SSW towards the end of January or even February...
  24. karyo
    I've also done the Timalfaya tour and the scenery was amazing! It finished with wine tasting which was a bonus. Regarding Iceland, this article has some handy info: http://edition.cnn.com/2014/12/09/travel/iceland-volcano-safari/
  25. karyo
    That showed only for a day so I guess it was a glitch. In general, it was persistenly showing -NAO from mid December but then it got pushed back to early January and now later in January.
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