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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    The trend of the stratospheric warming easing and the polar vortex reforming?
  2. karyo
    There will always be exceptions. Maybe other factors in 78/9 managed to cancel the effects of the solar maximum. Solar activity is not just going to drop like a stone. Only a gradual lowering is expected over the coming years so it could be a long wait for a cold winter like 2008/9, 2009/10, 2010/11 . Cold spells can still happen of course.
  3. karyo
    It is worth pointing out that the GFS stratospheric forecasts look worse than a few days ago so not much optimism for a sustained cold spell.
  4. karyo
    Maybe he got carried away like Chris Fawkes with his tweets. But yes, something is working against the stratosphere and is also preventing the MJO from progressing in the 7 and 8 phase this year.
  5. karyo
    That's why we need a SSW or a more significant warming at least. I suppose we could focus on the MJO but that's for another thread.
  6. karyo
    That's dreary especially combined with the gfs stratospheric output which shows a re-organisation of the vortex.
  7. karyo
    Raining here but the system is moving southeastwards quite fast. According to the radar it should start drying up in about an hour. Hopefully it will give some snow on the Pennines before it clears.
  8. karyo
    It was November then and we had all winter ahead of us. Now we don't have that luxury.
  9. karyo
    Yes, it is annoying not to have the Berlin forecasts but the GFS doesn't look that great in terms of the Atlantic warming. If anything, it seems to have downgraded it somewhat in todays runs - no dark orange colour at the 30hpa level.
  10. karyo
    It is a shame that the warming over the Atlantic and Greenland is quite brief. The vortex split is a blink and you miss it affair and then the vortex re-organises over Greenland again. Then there is an Asian warming towards the end of the run but we've had similar warmings there recently and they haven't benefited us at all, if anything they tend to push the vortex towards us which prevents any meaningful blocking to develop.
  11. karyo
    Only the 3rd chart looks cooler to me as the Azores high deflates allowing the low pressure to dig further south. Of course, that's in the 384 hour range which is not likely to verify.
  12. karyo
    That doesn't sound promising.
  13. karyo
    So if he is right (or has access to data we don't) then the models should start showing a renewed split very soon.
  14. karyo
    Thanks. I wonder where does he see the SSW.
  15. karyo
    Is this a new statement from him or the one made a few days ago?
  16. karyo
    Double digits tomorrow. Get ready for the Atlantic!
  17. karyo
    I would say that an early January SSW is unlikely but some warming is still taking place and we have to see whether this can help us somewhat. A SSW may still take place but that's more likely in the second half of January or early February.
  18. karyo
    Despite the recent warmings, the stratospheric temperatures at the 50hpa level are around average. http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_50_2014_merra.pdf It will be interesting to see whether the next warming can edge those temperatures up a bit. The 6z GFS P enhances the warming which edges even more towards parts of Greenland.
  19. karyo
    Last winter felt like a wet and windy spring to me. My location missed the stormiest of the weather so there was nothing notable and yes it was mild.
  20. karyo
    I hope so bluearmy but it seems to me that something more significant is needed to knock the vortex out. If I was in eastern Europe or even as far southeast as Greece and Turkey I would be more optimistic as even a bit of amplification in the jet leads to potent cold blasts (like it happens currently and also another cold shot is forecasted there next week) but for us here things look very unfavourable with the Azores high glued south of the UK. The only good thing I guess is that the warming this side is on our side of the hemisphere (Atlantic) which should be better than those Asian warmings that have just pushed all the energy to our side so far.
  21. karyo
    That's the worst news of the day! The wait continues and it is going to be a long one.
  22. karyo
    Agreed! The only way the AH could benefit us is if the jet wasn't so strong in which case it could move north enough to give some settled weather with frost but not with such a powerful jet. It seems that the MJO is totally unable to enter phases 7 and 8 and the stratospheric warming although noticeable it is not significant enough (SSW) to lead to any meaningful blocking for us.
  23. karyo
    Yes, that's an upgrade compared to previous runs.
  24. karyo
    New eruption near Tonga! http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/64548453/big-volcanic-eruption-near-tongas-capital Karyo
  25. karyo
    Maybe we can start with the latest CFS NAO forecast : http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/naoindex.png I know this is quite volatile and can easily change but it has been persistently showing a + NAO January which now stretches into February. Also, interesting to see how little in the way of -NAO we've had since November!
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