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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    Looking at the band on raintoday.co.uk the precipitation is very heavy around the Dublin area and it has reached much of Northern Ireland and the Irish sea.
  2. karyo
    Just watched the bbc24 forecast and they showed significant showers (wintry) for tomorrow but the GFS precipitation doesn't make much of them and keeps them around the coast.
  3. karyo
    I used too live in Birmingham and I enjoyed many frontal snow events there that often started as rain.
  4. karyo
    The midlands is expected to receive the heaviest of the precipitation so evaporative cooling comes to play and rain turns to snow. They do well under marginal situations because they are away from the sea. I have to say though, I am surprised at how far south the Met Office has moved the yellow warning.
  5. karyo
    It is remarkable how much the GFS has downgraded the warming and split have downgraded at the 30hpa level over the last few days. The GFS P was never keen in the idea so that's something to have in mind next time such promising warming appears.
  6. karyo
    The 12z didn't feel very Christmassey and downgraded the warming and the split at the 30hpa level. Let's hope the 18z brings back the trend.
  7. karyo
    That's indeed quite a change but I guess it is realistic as Ireland always benefits the least when there is a block to the east. One such example was February 2012 when eastern England was frozen for two weeks while Ireland was barely chilly.
  8. karyo
    Agreed! But at least we have some cold weather to look forward to and some frosty nights after that.
  9. karyo
    'Supposedly' is the key word here...
  10. karyo
    Yes, good to see the consistency from the GFS. The parallel remains underwhelming so I hope it will play catch up later on.
  11. karyo
    Yes, great to see the 0z GFS continue with yesterday's 18z! The parallel still doesn't follow but it is showing an improved picture compared to the 18z.
  12. karyo
    It is brilliant but the GFS P doesn't want to know as it has a less significant warming and the vortex stays intact. Who to believe?
  13. karyo
    It seems to me that the GFS P has been giving us the most cold outcome in FI out of all the models for quite some time but they never materialise. I end up checking it for fun rather than taking it seriously. No wonder they keep postponing its start date.
  14. karyo
    It is worth pointing out that none of the models are showing anything particularly cold or wintry tonight.
  15. karyo
    Can you see anything in the models showing snow that settles and lasts for two days away from the mountains in Scotland?
  16. karyo
    Sadly the 12z gfs has dowwngraded the warming in FI considerably and does not offer a vortex split. Let's hope the split returns in future runs.
  17. karyo
    The 6z had a good weakening of the vortex and eventual split around the 300 hour mark while the 12z couldn't be more different with the vortex staying in one piece and strengthening in the end. I know there is supposed to be some variability in FI but this is too much. By the way, I am talking about the 30hpa level. Karyo
  18. karyo
    What do you mean?
  19. karyo
    Disappointing to see the stratosphere so cold again despite the recent optimism. I think the idea of a SSW in late Dec/early January has fizzled out based on what I read in the stratospheric thread in recent days. Some experts are now even pointing to the end of January for a SSW...
  20. karyo
    Exactly and to be honest, I don't care if people get inconvenienced or have their travel plans disrupted! It is winter and Iwe want some interesting weather at last!
  21. karyo
    What do you mean?
  22. karyo
    You have just summarised in a sentence a cold lovers life in the UK! Karyo
  23. karyo
    My point is not just this projected Greenland high but the fact that it seems to happen almost every time one is forecasted. It seems to me that things have changed in the atmosphere that inhibit Greenland highs in winter. Why is that? Another factor is working here (could it be ice loss?) and therefore a SSW would enhance ours chances but without it the highs fail.
  24. karyo
    We haven't had a proper cold spell since early 2013, that's nearly two years! In other words, these days we need all the help we can get and a SSW is a big help!
  25. karyo
    A SSW could help us to get a proper Greenland high. What becomes apparent once more is that the models have overestimated the pressure rise in Greenland. As the time of a forecasted Greenland high approaches the models weaken the heights there and in the end we end up with a toppler or nothing. Is there something that has changed in the Greenland area that doesn't allow heights there during the Greenland months?
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