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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    Don't worry we will definately see more hail through the night!
  2. karyo
    The problem i see for Tuesday is that the wind will have (according to current projections) a slight southwesterly element which often means that the southern half of the region stays dry due to the Welsh mountains. Great for Cumbria and down to Blackpool coast though.
  3. karyo
    The 12z gfs precipitation type forecast has downgraded the wintryness for tonight.
  4. karyo
    I am pleased to see the shower activity increasing nicely! However, so far it is maily rain with some hail.
  5. karyo
    Yes Daniel, the temperature could have been better but as long as I see falling snow I will be relatively happy.
  6. karyo
    Guys check the satellite, there is a nice blob of cloud (should be organised showers) just starting to affect northern parts of Ireland. That should affect our region tonight :-) Www.sat24.Com
  7. karyo
    Yes some showers have appeared over the Irish sea
  8. karyo
    I see, that makes sense. Can you see any shower clouds on the horizon?
  9. karyo
    That still sounds rather high. The bbc forecast was showing 5c for our region.
  10. karyo
    I hope they will pep up again in the afternoon as the gfs suggests. We already have the colder air over us and with the sea being warmer than normal it is a recipe for beefy showers but of course theory doesn't always work in reality.
  11. karyo
    No showers at all in the Irish sea! What's happening? :-(
  12. karyo
    Brief hail shower here.
  13. karyo
    Heavy showers about to enter our region from the west!
  14. karyo
    Yes, same here. The sun is shining now but I already see further showers south of the Isle of Man heading for our region.
  15. karyo
    Some showers already rolling in.
  16. karyo
    That's more realistic. My location does pretty well under a westerly and although not cold enough for accumulations on low ground I expect to see a fair few snow showers by tomorrow night like the GFS suggests. Snow will have no problem settling in elevated areas further east.
  17. karyo
    Yes, that's true. I usually find that the accumulation chart overdo the snow that's why this chart is even more surprising. I think the one that Captain Shortwave posted looks more realistic.
  18. karyo
    I am surprised by the first chart to be honest. According to that there will be no lying snow in the Pennines under a cold west/northwesterly flow? How could that be? Plenty of showers are expected in the area and they can't be of rain with uppers in the range of -5 to -7
  19. karyo
    This MJO forecast is so frustrating! A bit better than the recent MJO cycle which failed to enter phase 7 but still bad as it is expected to be very weak by the time it goes to p7. Let's hope the CFS take on the MJO is closer to the money.
  20. karyo
    I have to say that I agree with IDO about the GFS P tending to over amplify the pattern in FI. This makes the model for me quite unreliable and this needs to be sorted before it replaces the original GFS. On a different note, interesting day tomorrow with the sharp transition from very mild and wet to showery and cold. Western areas should enjoy a fair few snow showers but with the warm ground temperatures I doubt any of it will settle away from high ground.
  21. karyo
    How likely is a high pressure cell to start its journey from the mid Atlantic and make it to Greenland? At the same time the vortex is supposed to be re-organising at the 30hpa level.
  22. karyo
    Fantastic idea!
  23. karyo
    I would discount the years just before a solar maximum as there is some lag time involved (although I am not sure how long that is). Also, those years were well before the global warming era.
  24. karyo
    I agree there are positive signs in the outlook but I fear there won't be a sustained change. We have seen last months the models overamplify the pattern and all we got was a sinking high.
  25. karyo
    You are welcome but it is easy to focus on something positive on the output and ignore the rest of the picture. This is why LRFS so often fail and this winter is another example of that.
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