karyo

hi Downburst, indeed it is! It might end up being correct though as we have quite a long way to go till the end of the month. If not, then it throwns a lot of doubt for the outlook. Karyo

Do we have an ENSO update for the coming months and winter? I know CFS was going for a dtrong La Nina developing with most other models having a weaker event. I've noticed that there's been a turnaround in the last few weeks, in the CFS temperature forecasts for January and February. So I wonder whether it has now toned down it's strong La Nina forecast? Latest CFS temperature forecasts: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif Karyo

Well, according to most forecasts Katla and Katia are likely to meet next week! lol

Do you think Tambora is likely to erupt? Karyo

This summer was pretty good for me. It was cool and cloudy, often wet too. Just how I like it! I wish we had more in the way of thundery showers but never mind. Karyo

I am really interested in this volcano! I wonder what eruption is going to give us and when...

Sounds like heaven to me! Karyo

Still having sunny spells here. I expect the rain band to break up as it leaves Wales but still with some heavy(ish) showery bursts! Karyo

Based on what the models are showing at the moment, it is realistic to expect some sort of landfall on the east coast. However, my belief that it won't, is based on the shift eastwards that we've seen in the last 24 hours and this is quite often what happens when a hurricane is projected to hit the east coast. Karyo

Watch the models take the path further east in the following days and eventually keep it in the Atlantic. It doesn't look likely that the UK is going to get the remnants either as an area of high pressure is likely to develop over us from this weekend. Karyo

Fish spinners bore me but good news for Florida.

What a difference a day makes! A notable shift eastwards according to the models so Florida looks safe! I won't be surprised if this eastward shift continues and the entire east coast escapes in the end! I have to say the Americans have been very lucky in the last couple of years with all major hurricanes staying out at sea! Karyo

Thank you

It's interesting though that even the CFS (which is keen on a strong La Nina) doesn't predict a mild winter at the moment. By the way, how can I reply to a post? This new message format is consfusing me. Karyo

@ Jack Wales, thank you for the update. I hope the CFS gets it wrong for obvious reasos. However, if the CFS predictions get's toned down a bit, then we will still be in a good territory for a cold winter. This rapid drop of SSTs is a worry but it may not continue. Of a different interest, the difference in the SSTs of the Baltic sea to a year ago (sorry don't have the link) is rather notable. It was all red (highly positive anomaly) this time last year due to the hot summer in Russia and eastern Europe in general. Karyo

Indeed! At the same time, it's very rare to have 4 consequtive cold winters so the chances are very small! However, the weather doesn't look at statistics. Karyo

@ Snowlover2009, we have similar tastes (apart from Lady Gaga lol). Like Stormmad, I would also like to see an update on the ENSO forecasts re: La Nina. I hope it will be more moderate this time... Karyo

That's good!

A sunspot is now appearing : www.spaceweather.com however, it was nice to see the sun spotless again. :-)

I am so glad to see my favourite thread come back! Thank you cc Karyo

Now this is interesting!

Yes, it's very interesting John. Although I would prefer a land volcano to erupt as there is much more to see! Karyo

According to Jon Friman blog there is an earthquake swarm in Reykjanes ridge, Iceland. http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/ Karyo You've just beat me by a second! lol

I wonder whether this earthquake is anywhere near Nabro volcano. Karyo

Thanks Snow joke. I see what you mean about the cloud bases but there is definately some development in the last hour or so. Fingers crossed! The line to the west of me is even darker now but brighter to the south of me so I'll just miss any rain from it. Karyo