karyo

That's true! I think it is a good thing that the long range models show nothing particularly promising at this stage. This way, even moderate cold spells will be appreciated. Karyo

A winter like 2008/9 would be a right treat especially after the succession of cold winters! I have very low expectations to avoid disappointment! What I find intriguing is that the CFS is the most keen model for a strong La Nina this winter, yet its temperature forecast shows nothing mild until February which is obviously too far away to have any confidence in the forecast. http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/euT2mMon.gif I think a winter more like 2005/6 is likely i.e. dry and chilly but not particularly cold and without the deep cold in central/eastern Europe that was evident that winter. Karyo

According to Jon Frimman it is just a pause and new fisures will open in the near future. Karyo

Good to see the Bulgarian snow surviving considering how early in the season it is and that the upper air has now warmed up. However, it is notable how much lower we are in snow cover and ice compared to last year! Karyo

I remember clearly the CFS showing deep blue over the entire Northern Europe for December 2010. This continued throughout November and the negative anomaly intensified as we got closer to the event. It was also showing a mild (orange) February. However, in recent months the CFS has not been consistent and got September and October wrong - it was expecting them to be below average. Karyo

I am not doubting this, I am just saying it doesn't look good for our side of the world. We need a blocked Atlantic for wintry weather or a high pressure on top of us for dry cold. Karyo

Thanks for posting this. The picture of a fast flow across North Atlantic doesn't seem good for cold to me! :-( Karyo

Those arrows are pointing towards the Balkans and eastern Med. Karyo

Wow! Impressive snow in Bulgaria for so early in the season. Pity the mild flow over the next few days will melt it all apart from the mountain tops. Greece also had early snow in the mountains. Karyo

The block of high pressure that the models are predicting in Eastern Europe is not good news. It will keep the weather dry there and a southerly flow is likely to reach Scandinavia where there's been a lot of snowfall recently. Yes, it's been very cold lately in the Balkans, Greece and western Turkey. The temperature is way below the average for October and mountains have received a nice covering of snow! Karyo

Very interesting! Unfortunately, there is not much monitoring in this volcano and no webcams either! :-( Karyo

The Laki eruption was very different to the eruptions that Katla gives. As for the hot summer that followed, I don't think it was related to the eruption. Karyo

Ok thanks To have a maximum effect, it would have to erupt when the sun is at it's strongest and days at their longest. Why would you expect increased heat in summer though? Karyo

Katla's eruptions are not big enough to have any significant influence on the climate. Krakatoa would do a much better job at this! Karyo

Can you please post the link? Karyo

Thank you John. I am surprised to see the Puyehue Volcano in Chile still erupting after 4 months of activity! The activity is not as strong now of course but still the plume reached 4km high and the volcano remains on red alert! Karyo

Thank you for the explanation. Karyo

hi Yamkin, I can see the potential for floods in Iceland when Katla blows up and part of the glacier melt, but why should we expect floods in Europe and the UK? Karyo

That's the most impressive photo so far! I wonder if we'll have the emergence of a new island in the end Karyo

Where did you stay? Some friends of mine were in Gran Canaria last week and they were also totally oblivious to it all. Karyo

It can be underwhelming if you get over December and then expect the rest of the winter to be mild. However, if we are going to have a cold winter month then December is the best due to the short days! Let's hope this time we will get at least some short wintry spells in Jan and Feb to spice things up. Karyo

Thank you both for the update. So a bit quieter today, let's see how things develop. Karyo

Could it be picking up the activity from El Hierro? Any news from El Hierro today? Karyo

I wonder where this heat is coming from as according to the weather forecast, the maximum temperature in the island today is 26c http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/60001.html That's not considered that hot by the locals who are used to much higher temperatures! I visit the Canaries often during the winter months and the temperatures are often higher than 20c even in January and the locals wear long sleeves as for them it is on the cool side. Karyo

Thanks Yamkin, so annoying that it's not working! Indeed, the eruption seems to be intensifying! Karyo Edit: Looking at the various webcams brings me memories of my holidays in Tenerife and Gran Canaria! I wish I was there now! lol