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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    It has been very consistent for November and December! The only change is that the positive anomaly has intensified and spread to a larger area. Also, January has gone from neutral to mild so there is a strengthening signal for a mild winter! Karyo Yes, we had so much excitement but I think we have to be prepared for the worst this time! Karyo
  2. karyo
    Since you mentioned the word depressing? Check this: http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/euT2mMon.gif The CFS must be expecting a winter free of stratospheric warming events! lol Karyo
  3. karyo
    That's quite a big earthquake for the area and it comes after yesterday's harmonic tremor. Interesting timnes! Karyo
  4. karyo
    I see snow there was a fall of snow in the Atlas mountains, Morocco! Karyo
  5. karyo
    What update is this?? Karyo
  6. karyo
    I couldn't agree more! If CFS was promising a cold winter or even a cold month, it would get more favourable comments here! Karyo
  7. karyo
    Lol! I think it helps to keep expectations low and then hopefully one or two cold surprises may turn up!
  8. karyo
    The CFS did well for the UK and north Europe last winter though! I think for up to 2 months ahead it is pretty reliable so that takes us to January. Karyo
  9. karyo
    If you are hoping for a cold winter look away now! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif This time last year the CFS had north Europe under deep blue for December and light blue for January! Expect the worst to avoid disappointment me thinks... Karyo
  10. karyo
    Serves you right for paying attention to anything past 240 hours! lol Karyo
  11. karyo
    Every time I look at the ECM it finishes with the high pressure stuck in the continent and a warm south/southeasterly flow over us! The CFS temperature probability forecast is nightmare material for a good chunk of winter! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif Karyo
  12. karyo
    Once again the CFS is in the lower extreme of the forecast with quite a scatter in the other models. Hopefully, La Nina won't spoil our chances. Karyo
  13. karyo
    Are you expecting a baby to run before it can walk?
  14. karyo
    That's true but unfortunately no warming on the horizon currently! An unsettled and mild Nov and Dec look more than likely now and the CFS shows this also. Karyo
  15. karyo
    The refreeze is continuing at a faster than average rate! http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png Karyo
  16. karyo
    Is this a new photo? The eruption is ongoing but at a lower rate so I didn't expect to see volcanic lightning! Karyo
  17. karyo
    Yes, the cooling has resumed! However, at the moment we are not much below average. http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t60_90n_30_2011_merra.pdf Karyo
  18. karyo
    What did you expect to see? Cross the average after such a low point? Karyo
  19. karyo
    How does the average daily increase for this October compare with the 07-10 average? Today's update continues with the rapid refreeze: http://nsidc.org/dat..._timeseries.png Karyo
  20. karyo
    Thanks for the updates! Btw what is the name of the footballer in the pic? Karyo
  21. karyo
    BBC news are also reporting on Hudson volcano, calling it a monster! http://www.bbc.co.uk...merica-15493442 Given the fact that it had a VEI5 eruption in 1991, I wouldn't expect anything as big this time but you never know. It has given some catastrophic eruption in the distant past! Karyo
  22. karyo
    I quite like this weather online forecast although it was issued on the 8th October and I wonder if things have changed since then? Karyo
  23. karyo
    Parts of Scandinavia are expected to have a mild winter according to the CFS! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif Nothing mild for the Uk though. Karyo
  24. karyo
    Interesting paragraph from wikipedi re: Hudson volcano Large eruptions around 4750 BCE and 1890 BCE are believed to have been of Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6; these are probably responsible for the large caldera. The 4750 BCE eruption may have wiped out many if not all groups of early man living in central Patagonia at that time, based on evidence from the Los Toldos archaeological site. Recently, the volcano has had moderate eruptions in 1891 and 1971 as well as a large eruption in 1991 . Karyo
  25. karyo
    Yes, but it depends how big the eruption was and when it erupted. Volcanoes near the equator are much more able to do that. Thanks Martin, these are some awesome pics! I really want to visit Chile before I die! Karyo
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