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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    I am just enjoying the frosty night. Pity is going to be the last one in a good while! To be honest, as long as this winter turns out around average, I'll be happy. Karyo
  2. karyo
    I'll look forward to your analysis Nick! lol It's easy to pick on the failure of a model that goes so far in advance, that's why is best not to go more than 2 months. Karyo
  3. karyo
    You keep saying that Nick just because the CFS got your location wrong last winter. That doesn't mean that the model is rubbish, just that it got it wrong on that occassion. At the same time, it was pretty good for the UK for the last 2 winters. I am not taking those charts as a gospel, I just look at them as trends. Karyo
  4. karyo
    I wouldn't bother looking at April onwards. I only look up to 2 months, at this range it is reasonably reliable. February still has a chance to come below average but I'd want to see this starting to show soon on the CFS charts. Karyo
  5. karyo
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif The CFS is still going for an above average January for northern Europe, especially the further east you go! February is looking average over our area and Scandinavia but still no sign of the below average temperatures in Scandinavia that GP is expecting. I hope it starts picking up a signal for a cold February soon. Karyo
  6. karyo
    The latest frames on the radar showing the band of showers clearing the north and east of the region. Later, this afternoon they should be restricted in the southwestern extremities and north Wales. A frosty night and then hopefully some snow for our region tomorow morning before the milder uppers move in. Karyo
  7. karyo
    The shower turned to wet snow for a few minutes. Huge flakes which were nice to see. Moved away now. Lovely photos from Stoke! Karyo
  8. karyo
    Just had a rain and sleet shower! Not even hail. lol Karyo
  9. karyo
    That's bad news but I guess it goes with the reports from Ireland - rain
  10. karyo
    I have shallow fog here which I think is a good sign .
  11. karyo
    Stephen and Backtrack should get a shower very soon! Let's see what falls from the sky... Karyo
  12. karyo
    Those showers are almost reaching the coast now! Karyo
  13. karyo
    I think we can mainly expect rain tomorrow apart from hilly areas. Today, we didn't have much of a breeze from the Irish sea so we managed to keep enough surface cold for snow (right side of marginal). Tomorrow, we'll have a keen breeze from the sea. Our best chance is for front edge snow. Another cold night tomorrow under clear skies and maybe some snow/wintry showers on Sunday morning before the milder uppers move in. Karyo
  14. karyo
    No matter what this band of showers in Ireland brings, it get's me excited to watch the showers develop and head this way! Areas with some elevation will definately get snow! Let's see... Karyo
  15. karyo
    I told you so! lol
  16. karyo
    That's a temporary rise because of the higher uppers associated also with the cloud that's moving away now. Give it an hour or so and the temperature will start to fall. Karyo
  17. karyo
    Yes, although the gfs was mainly showing rain and sleet at the time. What is surprising, is that usually the gfs precipitation type charts overdo the wintryness! I can see us getting a nice frost and ice tonight as the skies are already clearing and hardly any wind for a good part of the night. Karyo
  18. karyo
    What I found interesting today, was that the pool of sub -5 uppers was upgraded despite the pressure set up staying as the models predicted a few days ago. This happens rarely and I think the surface cooling/lack of winds helped a lot! Everybody (me included) was looking at the low to the south and in the end the snow came from the northwest! Karyo
  19. karyo
    Really? Is this cycle turning out more active than the prediction? Karyo
  20. karyo
    Woohoo! Heavy snow! Karyo
  21. karyo
    The ECM hasn't updated on Netweather or Meteociel! Karyo
  22. karyo
    You said this is not a southerly jet and posted the link as if to prove it! The jet has been quite southerly despite the low hights to the north and continues to do so.
  23. karyo
    Why are you posting a chart for the 31st Dec? Karyo
  24. karyo
    The warming of the stratosphere will take some weeks to make its presence felt on the troposphere. Karyo
  25. karyo
    The upper air temperatures are looking very marginal on the 6z as they have downgraded considerably for the weekend. It reminds me of what happened this time last week. Karyo
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