karyo

Edit: There is also some coverage in the Greek media which I find surprising. http://www.nooz.gr/science/ksipnise-to-ufaisteio-tis-santorinis

Agreed! I think the CFS deserves a lot more credit than it gets in this thread! It seems that in temrs of temperatures, we can expect a more average April and a warm May. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif I never look more than 2 months ahead. Karyo

Interesting article about Santorini and it's expanding caldera! http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46724625/ns/technology_and_science-science/ Karyo

Southern Japan eruption! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthvideo/9140968/Volcano-erupts-violently-in-Japan.html Karyo

The cold stratosphere has been a treat for the Arctic ice, keeping the cold locked there. As a result, the ice extend is much greater this year compared to the last few years. I hope we don't see a significant warming so that spring melt will be slow. Karyo

From what I've read on the net, the 1985 eruption was not particularly big but it was very deadly because of the snow and ice that suddenly melted and caused a lahar! Karyo

What I find quite surprising, is that throughout this episode of higher activity, the sun flux hasn't exceeded 140! Maybe because apart from 1429, the other sunspots are on the quiet side. Do you think that solar activity will drop to quiet levels as soon as 1429 leaves the visible side of the sun, or is it the beginning of a more active period? Karyo

To be honest, I'd be surprised if the 12z ECM is similar to the 0z. Karyo

Oh good God! lol Thanks for posting. Karyo

Out of interest, what is the forecast for the floowing months/rest of the year? Can we expect an El nino or neutral values? Karyo

The UKMO is even less promising although I can't view the 144 hours chart as it is faulty on meteociel. Karyo

I like the sound of that! Hopefully, it will keep the summer heat at bay. Karyo

Yes George, let's see what this sunspot brings and most importantly whether it's the start of a more active period or a one off. The solar flux is at 108 now according to spaceweather.com but that should rise in the next 24 hours. Karyo

Another day with a quiet sun. Only two small spots can be seen and the solar flux is at 103. www.spaceweather.com This is now turning to be a lengthy quiet spell which is remarkable considering we are not far from the solar maximum! Karyo

Yes, my hometown in northern Greece has also seen a very cold second half this winter! I doubt any northern blocking will develop this March due to the cold stratosphere. Cold zonality may be a possibility though if the jet decides to travel south (the quiet sun may encourage this) and the Azores high moves to the west a bit. Alternatively, we can have the horrific (for me) scenario of high pressure over the continent and low in the Atlantic with southwesterlies... Karyo

Stratospheric temperatures are nose diving again to much below average so I'd expect the jet to remain strong this spring. Boring for us but good for the Arctic ice I guess. Karyo

I know you are focusing on the Arctic but this chart for me is a reminder of how amazing this winter has been for Turkey. The cold started in October and pretty much stayed uninderupted! Snow depths increased as there was hardly any melt and many areas are still burried under the snow. Even today, Turkey has -8c uppers while areas further west and east are warmer. Turkey was this winter's sweet spot and jackpot lottery winner! Out of topic of course and I apologise but there is not much to discuss about our weather prospects lol Karyo

There is a forecast foe a significant cooling of the stratosphere: http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php If this verify, it will bring the temperatures to much colder than average values for the time of year. Any ideas what the cause of this might be? At least that should be good news for the Arctic ice. Karyo

Well, we now have a further backtrack from the gfs! The 6z cancels the cold northwesterly flow and picks up the low to the south of the country which is similar to the UKMO and ECM. Not a good development as the northwesterly would have at least brought plenty of wintry showers (snow for some). After that, it still shows the Atlantic taking over... The CFS has been quite bullish about an above average March and it seems it will be right once again! Karyo

This morning we have another classic GFS backtract! The scandinavian high get's blusted away effortlessly by the Atlantic. Karyo

Thank you for the information. I think it is worth starting a new thread! Karyo

Do you have a link to support your statement? Karyo

The 12z ECM is better than the other two with more amplification but it looks quite risky. At 168 hours the door is close to opening from the east thanks to the strong Scandinavian high and our trough starting to move south. However, the Atlantic looks more active than on the 0z. http://www.meteociel...map=0&archive=0 Karyo Unfortunately, like I said, the Atlantic looks too active in this run and in fact in all the 12z output, which wastes another Scandinavian high! Let's hope that the 12z output has over reacted on a signal and we'll get a more blocked outlook tomorrow... Karyo

The 12z gfs is a disappointment in comparison to the previous run as it has downgraded the cold chances for next week. The UKMO is even less inspiring with minimal amplification and a dominant Azores high! Karyo

Yes, I am trying not to get carried away to avoid another disappointment! Has anybody heard from GP and his thoughts for March? I haven't been here much and may have missed his post. Karyo