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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    Once again it has been interesting to follow this thread this autumn/winter. Quite a few areas are still not explained like why such significant warming didn't lead to more long lasting northern blocking. Stratospheric temperatures at the 30hpa level are still above average so you would expect northern blocking to continue for several more weeks. However, as we can see in the models that's far from what is happening. Karyo
  2. karyo
    This is looking very unlikely now. However, GPs winter forecast came closer to what actually happened compared to any other I have seen. Some people were predicting a bitterly cold January... Karyo
  3. karyo
    I think overall, GP has made a pretty good winter forecast. It would be more interesting to talk about what the rest of February and March holds than argue on how accurate or not a forecast has been. Karyo
  4. karyo
    I wonder if this cloud is going to break sufficiently tonight to allow the temperatures to fall well below 0c like the GFS suggests. At the moment, any decent cloud breaks are well to the east of our region and not in a hurry to come any closer. Karyo
  5. karyo
    The mean zonal winds are rocketing again at the 1hpa level: http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php Is this what is ruining our chances for more favourable blocking? The stratospheric temperatures at the 10hpa level are cooling rapidly but the crucial 30hpa is still above average. Karyo
  6. karyo
    I find it interesting that the solar flux has fallen below 100 for the first time in months! Hopefully more quiet spells to come and maybe even a spotless day soon? Karyo
  7. karyo
    We are left with a lot of cloud so I guess a frost is out of the question tonight. As for snow... lol Karyo
  8. karyo
    I am in Brussels at the moment where there is snow on the ground and the maximum temperature for today will not be higher than -6c! I can see on the webcams that Manchester has snow on the ground from yesterday. I am coming back tonight and hope that some of it will survive as the temperature doesn't rise too much. Karyo
  9. karyo
    It is a fascinating volcano but it has also given small (dome building) eruptions. The last one was in the 1950s I think. There are post cards that picture that eruption. Karyo
  10. karyo
    That's very interesting! It seems that both Kolumbo and Santorini have increased earthquake activity. I wonder if they are both about to go? Santorini is a very popular touristic destination and in those cases authorities tend to play down the danger until an eruption is almost certain so the fact that it is taken so seriously means that they are expecting an aruption in the near future! Karyo
  11. karyo
    The possibility of height rises over Greenland is music to my ears! I hope we continue to see the benefits of the warm stratosphere well into March! By the way, the forecast is for cooling to take place in the next few days. Chiono, do you think that another warming is in store for the foreseable future? Karyo
  12. karyo
    I'd love to know as well :-) Karyo
  13. karyo
    I am not sure whether the solar storm played a role in this. Yes, if the cooling materialises it will need some time to affect the troposphere. I think Chiono is expecting another round of warming soon so fingers crossed. Karyo
  14. karyo
    Quite a noticeable rise in mean zonal winds and drop in stratospheric temperatures is expected in a few days time! I hope it's only a temporary affair before another warming takes place. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php Karyo
  15. karyo
    The operational has more support than I expected! Still plenty of mild option but overall better looking ensembles. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess= Karyo
  16. karyo
    Thanks Chiono and Suburban. Karyo
  17. karyo
    Can you please elaborate? One liners are not helpful. Although we are in a better place now stratospherically that say in December, we are also nearing the final month of winter so time is running out! Karyo
  18. karyo
    The CFS has been very good again this winter and you'll deal! lol @ Active Weather Dude: don't look more than 2 months ahead. Karyo
  19. karyo
    Realistically, it's time to wave goodbye to any cold chances for January. The only thing that gives me some hope for February is the CFS! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif Karyo
  20. karyo
    Nothing positive to talk about on the 0z models! Even the UKMO has downgraded the cold northwesterly for early next week so the fax chart today will look less promising. The ECM shows a worrying trend of pressure rising in the Med in its latter stages, with southwesterlies bathing the UK. Karyo
  21. karyo
    Overall, there is less blocking in the 12z ECM. A step in the wrong direction! It doesn't even give the decent northwesterly that the UKMO brings at 120 hours. Then a questionable chart right at the end of the run with some surface cold. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&archive=0 Karyo
  22. karyo
    Not a good ECM! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&archive=0 The high pressure in Russia is too far south and unfavourably tilted. As for the Atlantic, the lows keep riding the high pressure effortlessly. Karyo
  23. karyo
    Too much residual low pressure left in the Atlantic which spoils our chances in the high resolution part of the 12z gfs. Karyo
  24. karyo
    At least the CFS is looking a bit more positive for the final month of winter. It was going for average temperatures over the UK and parts of Scandinavia but the latest update is showing below average temperatures over Scandinavia. http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/euT2mMon.gif Karyo Edit: re the above post from Active Weather Dude . I wouldn't bother looking at every individual CFS run as it is like the gfs (4 a day). The temperature probability chart that I posted above updates once a day and I find it more reliable for spotting trends up to 2 months ahead. It has performed excellently again so far this winter with the way above average temperatures for December and January although some people here were criticising it as they were expecting a cold January! lol
  25. karyo
    Operational and control are in agreement and close to the mean until the end of January. It doesn't look that uncertain to me. Karyo
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