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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    The warming that appeared at the 10hpa level yesterday is today also showing at the 30hpa to a lesser extend. However, it's very brief and the temperature drops down to the well below average levels. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php Still nice to see no matter how brief. Karyo
  2. karyo
    A warming is forecast at the 10hpa level which may bring us to average values. This is not reflected at the 30hpa level and the zonal winds are continuing strong. It is a start though... http://wekuw.met.fu-...ww/wdiag/ts.php Karyo
  3. karyo
    I logged on the netweather and saw this thread top of the list so I thought there were some news and updates! All I see is analysis and disagreements about what happened last year! lol Anyway, the stratospheric outlook remains cold but maybe with a small warming at the 10 hpa level http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php in a few days time. If we can't get a major warming before the end of Dec/Jan then let's hope that we get some smaller warming events before then. Karyo
  4. karyo
    A slightly more amplified ECM 12z which makes a notable difference on our chances for cold, even if it is bried. After a cold start to next week another chance for a northwesterly comes towards the end: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=1&archive=0 Karyo
  5. karyo
    Yes, the 12z UKMO is marginally better than the 0z output but it still edges the high pressure over Iberia by 144 hours which is not what we want to see. Karyo
  6. karyo
    This fits with GP's post on the stratospheric thread, saying that the jet will be very active for the next 4-6 weeks and models won't make good viewing during this period. Karyo
  7. karyo
    The latest charts show a warming over South Europe and North Africa? Karyo
  8. karyo
    That's depressing! The only positive so far was that the mean zonal winds were not affecting the troposphere but now we have a completion of the negative picture! Karyo
  9. karyo
    It's a mountain range called the Urals! Loads of negative anomalies are now appearing in the US which is a side effect of the zonal pattern. Karyo
  10. karyo
    What does it show? Karyo
  11. karyo
    The stratosphere is really cold for the time of the year! http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html However, the mean zonal winds are forecast to decrease slightly in a few days time. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php Too small a decrease but worth monitorning in the absence of any other good news... Karyo
  12. karyo
    According to GP's early winter thoughts, the polar vortex is expected to be over Canada so I don't know whether this is a temporary change or here to stay. It will be interesting to see whether he sticks with his earlier thoughts regarding this. Speaking of which, when is GP'swinter forecast coming out? Karyo
  13. karyo
    It's not just because the main models show mild as far as the eye can see, it's also because we have a rather cold stratosphere feeding the jet. Therefore, we are stuck with this for the month ahead! Karyo
  14. karyo
    The models have pulled the jet further north again so any promise for cold/cool zonality has vanished like it does on most cases. I've said a few weeks ago that this autumn has a very 2006 feel to it and as we come close to the end of the season it feels even more so. It's looking rather grim for cold lovers with nothing to prevent a very mild December! I can't see the jet easing with the stratosphere so cold. Let's hope that Jan and Feb will have something better to offer. Karyo
  15. karyo
    That's quite likely and overall I see more loses than gains.
  16. karyo
    I wish I could agree with you on this but I am not as optimistic! Those southern latitudes have snow as a result of the euro high which enabled a cold flow on it's eastern side and the opposite on it's west. With the blocking subsiding and the jet firing up, mild air is likely to penetrate well into Russia so it's goodbye to some of that snow! The more mobile pattern should give somme snow on the Scandinavian mountains though. Karyo
  17. karyo
    6 weeks of zonal weather sounds horrific but you may well be right. The stratosphere is continuing to get colder so any northern blocking for December is unlikely. Another disadvantage is the possibility of losing the snow cover that so far has accumulated in quite southern latitudes of Eurasia. Karyo
  18. karyo
    Stratospheric temperatures continuing on the colder than average route! http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php Karyo
  19. karyo
    The pressure rise in the Atlantic and the trough progressing over the UK is quite good to see in the cpc link Matt posted above. Also, the CFS has picked a signal for a more average December and January so that's a good development. Until recently, it was going for a well above average winter. Karyo
  20. karyo
    How does the current activity compare to forecasts for this cycle? It seems to me that the sun has become rather active in the last few months. Karyo
  21. karyo
    Is there a reason for this fear? Karyo
  22. karyo
    I hope so, The problem I have is that the best winters we had recently, had a warm(ish) stratosphere in November which helped with December cold. Now December looks like a lost month unless we get a mid latitude high for surface cold. Karyo
  23. karyo
    The forecast is even worse so no just a blip I'm afraid! http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php Karyo
  24. karyo
    Are you only refering to the GFS? Have a look at the ECM and tell me where the jet is! Karyo
  25. karyo
    Things are looking dire at the moment! I wonder if GPs winter forecast can bring a bit of optimism back when it comes out. Speaking of which, it should be out any day now? Karyo
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