Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

karyo

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,500

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    I've just checked the models and I shouldn't have bothered! We are seeing the likelihood of a horrendous combination: active jet to the north, persistence of high pressure in central/southern Europe and now to add insult to the injury, the emergence of a pressure rise in the Azores (as seen on ECM)! This pattern can be a nightmare to shift and it's what dominated the UK winters prior to 2008! The stratosphere is colder than normal which means that high latitude blocking is unlikely until/if a stratospheric warming occurs and the possibility of the jet staying to the north of the UK is likely to persist now that the sun is in a more active phase than in previous winters! Karyo
  2. karyo
    Still nothing promising on the Berlin site: http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php Stratospheric temperatures continuing colder than average. Karyo
  3. karyo
    The 12z UKMO has more high pressure with a slack southeasterly and would offer some frost at 96 and 120 hours. Karyo
  4. karyo
    The low pressure in the Atlantic is deeper in this run and the wind comes more from the south so less cool than the 6z with hardly any frost. Karyo
  5. karyo
    Go to the Manchester Gallery. It is free to get in and always worth a visit. Maybe get on the Manchester wheel for a panoramic view of the city. Clubbing is good on a Sat night :-) I'd guide you around the city but I am flying to the Canaries tomorrow. Just don't expect the weather to provide anything worthwhile... Karyo
  6. karyo
    The ECM update seems to be going along the same lines as the CFS! Mild it is then... :-( Karyo
  7. karyo
    The January chart would be epic and in fact I quite like the December one too! Karyo
  8. karyo
    While we are waiting for the GFS, the UKMO 12z is out in it's entirety and it is not pretty! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021 Karyo
  9. karyo
    Indeed, they have been very consistent and dreadful to look at! Karyo
  10. karyo
    Thanks for the clarification. That makes those long range forecasts close to useless then. Anyway, I'll look forward to the winter forecast in the next week or so. Karyo
  11. karyo
    I was pleasantly surprised to read the long range forecast yesterday but now it's back to disappointment! What caused this change is just 24 hours? lol Karyo
  12. karyo
    I thought GP was involved in all the long range forecasts that's why I am surprised.
  13. karyo
    Thank you for the update but it leaves me really puzzled! The long range net weather forecast issued yesterday, goes for a cold(ish) December!?!? Karyo
  14. karyo
    It could be that the major Alaska storm has caused quite a bit of damage to the ice in that area. Karyo
  15. karyo
    I'd say that a warming has to start showing here http://wekuw.met.fu-...ww/wdiag/ts.php before we start getting excited. Karyo
  16. karyo
    Thank you for the update. I am really surprised actually with the expectation for a below average December! Also, in general the update seems to contradict GPs early winter thoughts. Karyo
  17. karyo
    The ECM 12Z is giving us some hope in an otherwise very dull model output! Karyo
  18. karyo
    Probably not, but it looks cooler with some frost by night. Karyo
  19. karyo
    The eruption has stopped for now! Scientists in La Restinga and Guardia Civil who is currently flying over the earlier jacuzzi location have reported that the vent has probably closed completely. The activity has completely stopped at the moment. The Roman Margaleff Oceanographic ship is now close to the eruption vent is is problably taking gas samples and water samples. We expect to publish images soon. The closure of erupting vents is a normal phase in this kind of activity. This does not mean that the volcano activity is completely over. If the volcano continues in the same pattern, the seismic activity may getting stronger again as the magnma trying to find his way to the surface has been blocked. http://earthquake-report.com/2011/09/25/el-hierro-canary-islands-spain-volcanic-risk-alert-increased-to-yellow/ Karyo
  20. karyo
    Ok, that makes me a bit more hopeful. Karyo
  21. karyo
    The stratospheric temperature forecast on the Berlin site doesn't look good though! http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php Karyo
  22. karyo
    I would be very happy with a stagnant high over the UK, giving us fog and frost or cool cloudy weather. The problem with the current high is that it's too far south and east so we end up with the constant mild flow. The ECM yesterday suggested a much better position for some surface cold but today it pushed the high a bit further east again. Karyo
  23. karyo
    14c in Southern England and 5c in Greece! lol In fact the models are showing quite a cold plunge for the Bankans and southeast Europe with some snow in places! This is the second time this autumn that this is happening. Last time it was the second week of October. Karyo
  24. karyo
    This autumn reminds me of autumn 2006 in terms of the high pressure stubbornly nesting in the continent and the constant feed of mild/very mild air. That was an El Nino year and this is a La Nina year but I see many similarities. Karyo
  25. karyo
    I am watching with interest as I am flying to Gran Canaria on Saturday! Karyo
×
×
  • Create New...