karyo

Thanks for all the updates guys. Are there any webcams from the area so that we can see if there are any visible signs of the eruption? Karyo

According to the CFS, November is looking the most promising month at the moment. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif However, CFS is the most keen model to strengthen La Nina so if it's overdoing it then things may turn out more promising. Karyo

Thank you for the kind comment! I am not a scientist (where did that come from?) but I am fascinated by volcanoes and their power. I will never feel ashamed for that! Karyo That's interesting! Something to keep an eye on. I was starting to think that it will erupt in November, when I go to the Canaries for a break but she probably can't wait that long. Karyo

Romania too! Karyo

I bet after all this waiting and frustration, Katla will come up with a VEI4 eruption and we will all feel underwhelmed! lol

Thanks. I'll have to take your word for it as I am finding them hard to read. Karyo

According to the CFS forecasts this winter is looking like a less interesting (less cold) version of last winter! I generally trust the CFS forecasts and it has done well in the last couple of winters. However, in my opinion, it's performance has dropped in recent months and autumn so far is a good example of this! Up to early August, it was predicting a below average Septemper for western Europe, including the UK, only to water down it's forecast closer to the month and as we know September ended up well above average. Similarly, it was going for a below average October and it has recently shifted to an above average month. Therefore, I don't trust CFS as much as I was until a few months ago. As for the ENSO forecasts, La Nina, doesn't look anywhere near as strong as last winter. In fact, El Nino is one of the 2 models that have the most negative index with the other models going for a weak to moderate event. Karyo

Why? Is this because of a pattern? Karyo

Lovely! The photos remind me of my holiday in Kefalonia a few months ago! Such beauty! Karyo

Yes, that's true and we have Katla in line too!

That's what I call a boring eruption! lol Thanks Karyo

Any chance for an explosive event rather than a Hawaii style eruption? Karyo

That's better than last winter so at this stage, I'll happilly settle with that! Karyo

Thank you! It looks ok, no forecast for strong La Nina! Karyo

Thanks Yamkin, So they are just expecting lava flows and no explosive events/ major ash plums? Karyo

Do you have the latest La Nina forecast? Karyo

El Hierro continues to shake! I wonder how long it will take before an eruption takes place. Karyo

Yes, but the aytumn of 2006 was awfully mild/warm and was followed by an awfully mild winter! Just saying... Karyo

I go every November to the Canaries for a week or two and I am quite tempted to stay in western Tenerife this time so that I have a good view to the west in case an eruption occurs in El Hierro. Karyo

Agreed! And just to add that only some of the ensembles hit the -1.6 mark with the mean around -0.8 which is not too bad! Especially if you consider that the CFS has been very keen the keenest to bring a strong La Nina than other models. Karyo

"No one expects a repeat of 1815 just yet - it takes much more than 200 years for that type of huge pressure to build up again, said de Boer, who teaches at Wesleyan University in Connecticut." Karyo

I'd rather Katla waits till late spring for the eruption. Long days will give plenty of opportunities to enjoy the show in the webcams. Karyo

What are the weather conditions in Iceland today? Could wind be interfering? Karyo

Naughty! Yes, it a very good start to the season coupled with an early re-freeze of the Arctic!

I am glad they are taking it seriously and prepare for the eruption. I wonder what eruption (VEI wise) we can expect from Tambora! There have been some massive ones in the past but it sometimes gives moderate eruptions. Karyo