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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    Is the ECM on holiday? It hasn't updated for two days! Any news from the gfs? Karyo
  2. karyo
    Now we know why the gfs was stubbornly sticking with the mild outlook while the ECM until yesterday wanted to develop a more favourable pattern in FI. Because the ECM was wrong! All major models look horrendous for cold today! Karyo
  3. karyo
    To me, both gfs and UKMO look in agreement so I wouldn't say the UKMO is a mess. Karyo
  4. karyo
    Everybody is talking about how bad the gfs is but the UKMO doesn't look good either! High pressure to the south and an average to mild Atlantic flow. Karyo
  5. karyo
    As long it shows the same on the 12z... Karyo
  6. karyo
    Sofia is very cold during the winter months! It has a proper continental climate. Karyo
  7. karyo
    Thanks for posting those charts, Paul. The first one for January is quite interesting as it gives us a good jet axis for northwesterlies. However, the February chart is horrible for cold, in my opinion. Too much low pressure again anchored over Greenland and a strong Azores high. The high pressure to the northeast has no influence on us and in fact much of central and eastern Europe gets southeasterlies. Today's CFS temperature update continues to be uninspiring! In fact, it has shown remarkable persistence for above average temperatures over Scandinavia and central, eastern Europe. The only hope it gives for us, is for returning polar maritime air from the Atlantic. Karyo
  8. karyo
    Yes, that's true and I think GP is expecting a major warming around mid January! I was hoping for something more significant now so that we don't have to wait till February to see the effects. Karyo
  9. karyo
    Today's update has downgraded a bit the stratospheric warming! http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php As you can see, the mean zonal winds are not expected to reverse. The 30hpa level also shows a smaller rise than yesterday. Karyo
  10. karyo
    Following my last post, this link shows the seismicity in the area since September 2011. The red star is where Kolumbo volcano is (and where the 3.2 earthquake took place). What's very interesting is the number of earthquakes in Santorini itself! Karyo
  11. karyo
    This has got it me really interested! http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/view_news/4206/Kolumbos-submarine-volcano-Santorini-Greece-32-magnitude-earthquake.html I think the Kolumbos volcano is separate to the one in Santorini but too close for comfort! It produced an explosive eruption in 1650 and a tsunami. Ashfall reached as far as Turkey! Unfortunately, there is not a lot of information about the current activity and little is known about previous eruptions (apart from the most recent one in 1650). Karyo
  12. karyo
    Understandable, but even if this warming doesn't 'do the job', it is possible that it's just the start of a warmer stratospheric spell. Karyo
  13. karyo
    Yes, I agree with your point. I think that this warming, if it is as strong as it is forecast today, should be enough to weaken the PV considerably. A SSW would be better of course and may still happen. Karyo
  14. karyo
    How close does it get? I think even without a SSW, we are likely to see a significant warming and reduction in mean zonal winds which should open the door to blocking in favourable places. November 2010 is a recent example. Karyo
  15. karyo
    I'd be happy with an ordinary warming to slow down the jet and increase the chances of blocking but today the Berlin site seems to suggest a SSW! http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php Mean zonal winds drop down to zero! I look forward to chiono's full update. Karyo
  16. karyo
    The 18z looks like a re-run of November to me! Not a month I'd like to experience again but hey ho. The winds are projected to come from the southwest for almost the entire run! Karyo
  17. karyo
    The 0z ECM had the jet on a more southerly track on its later stages compared to the 12z. The artic high you mention is notable for the first part of the run but unfortunately loses steam and fizzles as the run progresses. I hope the ensemble mean is better than the operational. Karyo
  18. karyo
    Thank you George, I hope the lull continues. Karyo
  19. karyo
    However, November 2010 had a warm stratosphere which helped the December events. By December, the stratosphere cooled significantly but it took till January for the effects to be felt on the ground. Karyo
  20. karyo
    This is the best I've seen this look at the 10hpa level and at long last the 30hpa is showing signs of warming too. http://wekuw.met.fu-...ww/wdiag/ts.php When I say best, I mean for this year. Karyo
  21. karyo
    The ECM chart you posted shows the return of cold zonality which I'd welcome with open arms! Karyo
  22. karyo
    Well, so far, December has been kind to us (especially us living in the northern half of the country. As I type this, there is snow outside and it was only a few weeks ago that some members were making bold statements about a mild December and no snow till January at the earliest! I am hearing with interest the discussions about a mid latitude high taking over for the end of December/early January. As things stand, this is our best chance for cold weather, now that the jet is expected to track a little further north. With the stratosphere starting to warm considerably, the jet should start showing signs of slowing down which may encourage high pressure and surface cold to take over. Whether we see proper northern blocking in the 2nd half of winter, is not a question I will attempt to answer. As for the warm April-cool summer idea, I couldn't care less! Winter is my favourite season! lol Karyo
  23. karyo
    I think so too. Interestingly, there is quite a contrast between the bbc forecast and the gfs. The bbc presenter showed early morning wintry/snow showers and then dry and sunny for much of the day. The gfs is showing wintry showers from early morning till about mid afternoon. Karyo
  24. karyo
    wxmatt, can you elaborate on what this is supposed to show? Is it relevant to this thread? Karyo
  25. karyo
    In your location, maybe, early on. After that cloud will spread in. Karyo
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