karyo

We need a totally clear night tonight, no nuisance cloud and breeze. We also need the first band (tomorrow evening) to be a bit more intense than currently shown as this one will be the safest one in terms of snow - there will be no Irish sea breeze with this one and therefore the snow is most likely to settle. The second band is heavier but it comes with the risk for it to turn to rain at least for a time. Karyo

For inland areas, it is important to get as cold as possible tonight for the ground to freeze. Then this will help the snow to settle easily tomorrow evening. When you get a good covering of snow, even if it turns to rain for a time, it won't melt much. Cold uppers seem to move back over us by the end of Monday. Coastal areas should see a brief spell of snow but mainly rain after that. A slight correction westwards, of the low coming down from the north/northwest is needed for the whole of our region to benefit. Let's hope we get it. Karyo

Ok, but a huge downgrade to what it showed 12 and 24 hours ago. Karyo

It seems that the ECM had overestimated the Scandi high on it's earlier output. Another failed easterly! Karyo

This is not a particularly good chart. The driver here will be the deep low in the Iceland area, likely to bring a return to westerlies very soon. Karyo

At 276 hours it can show arctic condditions if it wants to but what's important is what is happening in the first 144 hours! Worryingly, the sun is waking up which may tip the balance against the cold spell : http://www.spaceweather.com/ We need to see the solar activity drop quickly. I remember GP saying that the last upstick in activity may have contributed to the early December failed cold spell. Karyo

The UKMO is not that good! There is residual low pressure to the northwest of us and the Iceland area. On top of that that deep Atlantic low needs to be further west and the Iberian high needs to be weaker. Karyo

Compare this to a few days earlier and there is a notable reduction which can have an effect on the models. The same applies for the New Year. I am going to Brussels and there is much less option of flights than normal. Karyo

Judging by your language, you are not feeling very Christmassy! Much of the world does not celebrate Xmas? Where is the evidence of your statement? Much of Europe, America and Africa does and there are very few flights today! Karyo

Merry Xmas to you all! The models are looking a bit more interesting today (a bit more amplification is showing up) which is probably due to the limited data which is always an issue over Xmas. Still, it is entertaining to see. Karyo

The evidence is that it always happens all of a sudden on Xmas day! Karyo

On the positive side, the models always come up with crazy outputs over Xmas due to limited data. So have a drink and enjoy some entertaining charts over the next day or two! Karyo

Yes, at least the stratospheric warming should change the weather pattern with more northern blocking but we may still end up in the wrong side of high pressure. Karyo

Even those ensembles don't look great but better than the operational. As Nick posted earlier, the models moved away from the idea of that low slowing down to allow an Atlantic ridge to develop. It seems we have no luck this year! Karyo

That low cannot realistically deepen much more though Karyo

What difference does it make if it is zonal or not? The main thing is that the wind is coming from the west/southwest and the temperature is mild to average at best! Karyo

The Met Office 6-15 dayer is identical to yesterday's so they haven't bothered to change anything. The same applies to the 16-30 dayer. Karyo

The models are having an easy time as the zonal pattern is so easy for them to predict and they are in perfect agreement which is bad news for us! At 192 hours the ECM is giving us a small window of opportunity for a northerly toppler as the low in the east coast of North America is deepens and slows down. Pity there is no high pressure further north to give us something more substantial. Karyo

Beautiful photos of Copahue volcano erupting in Argentina. http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Copahue+volcano+Argentina+Chile+border+spewing+ashes+photos/7737842/story.html Karyo

Nightmare material - this pattern seems locked and able to waste more weeks! Karyo

We will probably end up like last year - 2,5 mild and rainy months and then a 2 week cold spell in February before spring arrives. Karyo

This sounds worrying as if true we would waste several more weeks of winter! Karyo

Maybe it is not what we want to hear but it has done pretty well all year. The only notable mistake was the failed easterly but let's face it easterlies have a high chance to fail unlike southwesterlies! Karyo

The less said about the 12z ECM the better! The jet axis is unfavourable for cold and pressure over the continent is higher than the 0z which leads to milder weather. Still pretty wet though. Karyo

The showers on the ECM will be of rain I'm afraid for Xmas day! At 144-168 hours it looks miserable! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&archive=0 Karyo