karyo

I can't see a northerly coming anytime soon with the Russian high getting stuck to the east and us locked in mild Atlantic air! http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess= Karyo

OMG! The whole Atlantic low is starting to go under the block! Cold uppers return to Scotland from the east! Karyo

This is even better than the GFS as the low is further south and east! Karyo

Yes, although annoyingly it later gets absorbed by the low pressure westwards which brings the southwesterly! Even so, a good trend so far. Karyo

Out to 99 hours and the 12z GFS is a lot closer to the 0z UKMO than the earlier GFS run. Some undercutting to the south. Scotland remains under cold upper air and east/southeasterly wind! Karyo

It would be nice to move the battleground a little further west so that parts of the UK have a chance of snow but I don't have high hopes for that. The northerly that the ECM shows just after Xmas is what has caught my eye and we need the models coming to this idea more and more. Either way, the pattern in north America looks better than it did a couple of days ago - slower, so not feeding constantly the Atlantic. Also, I think today the models are moving away from the nightmare of the Iberian high. It is still expected to develop but looks more of a transient feature. Karyo

I agree with what you say, it is an interesting subject. However, it is the potential cold outcome that makes it fascinating! Karyo

The stratospheric warming has not happened yet, it is a forecast for the end of the month. Thankfully, stratospheric forecasts are quite reliable so we should be confident that it will happen but it will take time to affect the troposphere. Therefore, I doubt the models will pick up on this for a few weeks yet! Karyo

It is a cooler chart and has potential though.

That's a fair bit better than the dreadful gfs! Karyo

Who impregnated the Iberian high? It is growing and aiming to cause trouble!

Mild upper air floods in overs us as early as 84 hours! Karyo

That stupid shortwave after is crosses the UK, it nests in north Germany until it dies, not allowing high pressure to extend from the east.

In other words, it could be that we have to wait till the end of January for the tropospheric effects...

The update is identical to yesterday's so I doubt they factored any stratospheric warming in it. Karyo

Brief flirting with returning polar maritime air is hardly inspiring and gets watered down as we approach t0. Let's hope that the pressure rise over the continent will not continue to gain momentum as it can waste several weeks of winter! Karyo

I've just viewed the models I wish I hadn't to be honest! The GFS in particular is a horror show but even the ECM manages to bath us in a warm southwesterly flow! The pressure rise in Iberia and then central Europe is a particular concern as it joins with the Russian high and can lock us in a very mild pattern for a very long time! I think Christmas is unlikely to be anything else than green now it is just a question how much longer this mild pattern lasts. Karyo

The 12z GFS is pretty bad compared to its earlier runs and in particular yesterday's 12z which was very promising for a cold spell. The UKMO is much better but I have lost faith in it since the first cold spell failed and the UKMO continued to show promising charts only to drop them in the last minute! It seems to be following trends lately with some delay and I wonder whether it is worth paying any attention to it past 120 hours. Karyo

That's true! Nice to see something interesting again in the charts regardless of whether it comes to fruition. Karyo

Yes, the Russian high is doing us no favours! We need it to disappear as soon as possible! Karyo

Horrible! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&archive=0 Karyo

Ecm at 144 hours: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&archive=0 As the first low fizzles out, another takes over from the west. Karyo

An interesting GFS but the ECM is rather underwhelming to be honest. The Russian high is unable to edge further west and the Atlantic is feeding us with successive low pressure systems. Karyo

Snow event for Scotland and northern England at 180 hours! The Atlantic low losing energy and fragmenting! Karyo

Cold upper air licking the east coast by 171 hours! Karyo