karyo

Yes, a friend of mine said the sunrise was also interesting!

There was a golden haze to the west from 5pm till sunset here! After the sun disappeared, there were layers of dust/haze on the horizon. I can just about see the Pennines today despite the cloudless sky! Karyo

Quite hazy here today! Perhaps a bit more than yesterday, so another amazing sunset to come! The volcano is continuing to erupt so I wonder how how much SO2 is emitted and how it compares to large volcanic eruption of last year (e.g. Redoubt, Sarychev etc.)! Karyo

Yes, March came quietly but will leave us in a wild note! Karyo

Yes, but the difference so far today, is that the UKMO has moved much closer to the GFS scenario! Karyo

Indeed there was! I remember the first weekend of April was particularly wintry with snow at times and frost by night! I was on a night out in Manchester and clearly remember it! Karyo

That's true! I came back from Gran Canaria yesterday and was surprised to see how slow spring blossom is this year! All good in my book! I remember many previous winters when the daffs were blossoming in February! Nothing worse than signs of spring in a winter month! Anyway, back to the models, and as already mentioned, there is quite a difference between GFS oz and ECM. It will be interesting to see which model has the right idea! Karyo

Chilly extended De Bilt esnembles: http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png The control is particularly cold! It seems that I will miss no interesting weather when I am away next week, but hopefully something chilly/cold for my return! Karyo

Spring never arrives for me! I live in the fantasy land of eternal winter! lol Seriously though, I see the 1st of March as the beginning of spring, but this also depends on how many signs of spring exist! This year there's certainly a delayed start here, even the daffodills need another week or two before they open. I find this very pleasing especially compared to some previous years when they were blossoming as early as early February! Karyo

This looks possible now! However, what the models currently show, is in contrast to what Brickfielder and GP posted in the In depth model discussion thread. Further changes are possible. Karyo

At long last! Karyo

No! Not for as long as there is a good chance for proper wintry weather (say till mid April). I find settled weather in spring and summer boring! I'd rather have low pressure. Anyway, as I said before, I hope that the support for a northerly increases in the following outputs. Karyo

There is some indication for a northerly attempt according to the models, for a week from now. The Met Office update just mentiones the return to the unsettled weather with average temperatures so they are not thinking the chance for the northerly is high at the moment. I hope the support for the northerly will increase in the following runs but I'll be happy with some cool unsettled weather too! Karyo

Are you reading between the lines re:warmer conditions? Because the further outlook doesn't mention anything like that! Karyo

No posts here this morning, which says it all really! At least the ECM is showing some interest in the later stages, with a slack northerly flow and a block developing in Greenland! It could get tasty if that low from the Atlantic drops southeast! However, the ECM keeps changing in FI with every output so more runs needed. Personally, I'd rather not see a wintry shot from the 13th-20th March as I will be away on holiday then. Karyo Ps Happy days, we've started our posts with the same phrase! lol I think there might be some interest before November but if not, see you then.

The 12z ECM provides us with a snooze fest in the later timeframe. The bad smell, sorry I meant high pressure, settles on top of us and no hint of a northerly! In fact, the early timeframe is not promising either, with hardly any precipitation and uppers not as low as in the 0z output. Disappointed really considering what the gfs and its ensembles came upwith! Karyo

Yes, the 12z gefs ensemles certainly look colder for the weekend and early next week: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess= The mean is down to -10 now for the above mentioned period. It still rises after that with no sign of a northerly though! Karyo Ps Eugene you are too fast!

Spring sunshine can actually create a deceiving feeling! CET temperatures are currently below average and they are likely to stay like that for the next week or so, mainly thanks to the cold minimas. Karyo

If it was early February, I would agree with you. However, I find high pressure in spring and summer rather boring. Time for me to focus on aspects of life that I neglected all winter! Yes, it is time for shopping, socialising and having a lie in on Saturday morning rather than jumping out of bed at 8am to check the models! lol

I agree, March is very often a good month for wintry weather and this high is just wasting precious time! Of course, like I mentioned yesterday, most of us had plenty of snow this winter, but a bit more wouldn't hurt! I think it is lookin unlikely that this high will move somewhere favourably for a cold shot. Instead, it will stick on us like a bad smell! Karyo

Does it matter when we've just had such a cold winter? Karyo

The 12z UKMO is still going with the low dropping down the eastern side of the country and then setting a short lived easterly! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=72&carte=1021 Karyo

Change it to 12z GFS and you'll be spot on! It offers some really cold nights over the weekend and early next week! Karyo

The METO outlook says the cold may hang around in the north not the west. If you also consider the fact that they mention the possibility for the weather to be drier in the southeast, that implies to me that the high will be over the continent so eventually mild southwesterlies will affect all of us. Karyo

That's good to see! However, I don't like the METO further update as it mentiones a southwesterly regime for the second week! Maybe I should forget about the northerly... Karyo