karyo
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Everything posted by karyo
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I am not so keen on the Met Office update! It seems to go with the ECM & GEM scenario, as they expect rain or sleet with hill snow for next week. Snow at times at low levels only in the north. If the update was supporting the GFS scenario, there would be snow across the UK and not just the high ground! Karyo
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Yes, impressive 6z ensembles, prolonging the cold spell. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess= An upgrade from the 18z and 0z ensembles! The 18z ensembles for London were keeping the -5 uppers till the 19th, so a nice extension there! Let's hope the 12Z ECM will start shifting the block to the east, but until I see it I am rather cautious! Also, not good that the GEM has gone with the ECM. Karyo
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Hopefully, but at the moment this trend can only be seen in the 6z gfs, not in the all important euro models! Very interesting to watch the developments this afternoon! Karyo
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I am not so keen on the 0z ECM for next week! Once again it projects that we'll miss the main cold plunge as everything is too far west. It should be cold enough for snow for a time, but the cold air will soon mix out. The UKMO at 144 hours is very similar to the ECM, so that's not good. We need to see adjustments eastwards! Karyo
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If the 12z ECM FI was to verify, then there would be loads of snow for many places next week, before less cold/mild weather moved in from the south. However, it is a worrying trend as the 12z has pushed the -NAO further west than the 0z. I hope this trend stops and ideally reverses to an extend! The GEFS ensembles keep it cold for much longer! Karyo
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The met office further outlook is interesting with snow possibilities for next week apart from the southwest where it will turn milder. I would have thought the southeast would be morelikely to turn mild with the west based -NAO rather than the southwest, so I find that a bit puzzling! Frosty, I was considering to say the same thing! I am glad you posted first! lol Karyo
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A good 18z with more snow showers around than the 12z and also yesterday's 18z! Some snow showers look likely too cross the Pennines from time to time. Karyo
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Yes, a brilliant output! Note how the low pressure around Newfoundland stays stationary there, helping to maintain the block over Greenland and preventing it shifting westwards (west based -NAO). Karyo
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The 12Z UKMO precipitation charts look rather tasty for midweek! Plenty of showers coming over the North sea and moving southwestwards! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=72&carte=1594 Karyo
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Indeed Nick, that's good news! Karyo
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The MJO continues it's progress towards phase 8 which is great news! http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif I'd rather it stalls or slows down soon though, rather than continue to move as fast! Karyo
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Very pleasing 12z output so far. Not just cold but some snow too for many areas! The GFS FI is sensational. If it was to come off, the Baltic sea would be complete frozen! Karyo
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Yes, but it should help retrogression/further northern blocking? Karyo
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Thank you for the update! So, if we didn't have the warm stratosphere, the high would be likely to slowly sink southeastwards as IB suggests. However, thanks to the warm stratosphere, the high has a chance to retrogress later in the period? Karyo
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It's difficult to say at this early stage and I am not sure where you live. However, according to the UKMO and GFS current charts, I would say Tuesday. Of course, it's all subject to change. Karyo
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It's a date! It's been an unbelievable winter and the fun goes on! Karyo
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Brilliant 12z output so far! I really like the strong flow from the east/northeast and with the low pressure close by, I expect the snow showers to cross the country! Karyo
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The same applies with Greece! When we have cold weather here, it is mild there and vice versa! My mother said it's been an uneventful winter so far in Greece with only short lived snow spells! It was similar last year too! Karyo
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Good to see the MJO progressing east of the dateline http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif Hopefully it will make it to phase 8 as slowly as possible! Karyo
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Indeed, that's a solid cold outlook! Karyo :-)
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I am back after an interesting afternoon driving in the snow! What a pleasant surprise to view the 12z output and nice to see the UKMO ending it's love affar with that stupendous Atlantic low! Interesting that the models have gone cold as soon as the MJO moved to phase 7 again! Since Saturday, the models have shown the most volatile output with the largest swings, since I started following them, back in 2001/2! Caution is still needed of course, but let's hope there will be no more drama! Karyo
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Nothing yet in Manchester, in fact I can see the sun through the high cloud! However, the heaviest part of the precipitation is still well away to the west, over the Irish sea. So it should take a few hours to get here. Karyo
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Amazing turnaround in the ensembles: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess= However, the control doesn't want to know! Karyo
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Yes, let's hope this move eastwards materialises. Snowdrift, I know it was not said it was today's fax chart but what is the point to put yesterday's since the models have changed so dramtically since? Karyo
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Yesterday's!
