karyo

The GEM 240 hours chart you posted, doesn't look that bad to me! Karyo

The 06z is a far cry compared to the same time yesterday with hardly an easterly at all. All the action in the northern arm of the jet, sinks the high pressure further south and east! That's quite ironic after the ECM has backtracked from it's 12z outlook. Maybe the CET won't be as 'safe' as I thought! Karyo

This sounds like we haven't had any snow and ice so far this winter! Anyway, I am happy with this mornings model output, as it looks pretty good for the January CET and that's good enough for me! Karyo

The 12z gfs is sticking to its guns but I think the UKMO has made a small step towards the ECM. The gfs ensembles should be interesting before we see the ECM. Karyo

The 6z gfs is very keen with the cold outlook, first easterly and then northerly! In fact, the ensembles have improved considerably with a much colder mean throughout! However, yesterday, the 6z was also the most enthusiastic in bringing the easterly, so that's something to consider. The real worry is the ECM really, with all the energy ir gives to the northern arm and the lack of high latitude blocking. The Met Office further outlook is still looking cold, but they emphasize the uncertainty in the further outlook. The MJO has entered phase 5 but seems to me, to lack a real drive to progress further east! At least for the time being. http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif It will be an interesting afternoon of model watching, that's for sure! Karyo

Could someone please post the 0z ECM ensembles as I am at work and don't have the link here. It would be interesting to see where the operational was standing! Karyo

Don't worry snowdrifter, your post makes sense to me! Yes, just before the last cold outbreak happened, all the models were showing the northwest England to be very dry. Thankfully, we got a good dumping! It proves that precipitation cannot be forecasted with accuracy at this range. There is a lot of uncertainty about next week's potential cold spell, so loads of model watching to come! Karyo

Exactly! To be honest, I would even settle for cold and dry after all the snow we've had recently! Also, the possibility of a sub 2c CET month is enough to excite me! Karyo

It is disappointing that the sun spots make it around the sun. It shows that activity is increasing! A few months ago, they would only last a day or two and disappear! Karyo

Agreed Nick, next week is looking interesting! Chilly overall with more than one chance for snow. I am very encouraged once again! Karyo

Careful Stephen, you're going to rise people's expectations and there could be some wrist slushing in the near future! Karyo

Yes, I suppose there will be further small changes from now till Wednesday. Worth watching! Karyo

Hopefully another snow event for Manchester too! The band of precipitation seems to stall and not even make it to the east of England, while yesterday, the models were showing a slow west to east progression. Karyo

Thank you! I'll get ready for the worse and hope for pleasant surprises! Karyo

Ian, do you also see a mild February? Karyo

Although, I am a fan of GP's work, I agree with what you say! I hope February will be proved his Achilles heel once again! Karyo

HP? I am sure he will offer updates. I just can't see why the whole of February will be so bad for cold, especially now that the stratosphere is loosing it's cold profile! Karyo

It would be nice if somebody can give some information on the "collapsing el nino"! That's the first time I hear it mentioned and it sounds interesting. We had the ENSO thread where the developing el nino was monitored but it's been abandoned since late November! Not keen on GPs thoughts for a mild February! That's the worst possible end to a great winter! For once, I hope he is wrong! Karyo

Interesting post from Brickfielder on the Technical model discussion thread! He is looking west, for the next cold spell, not east! He is expecting the Russian high to sink southwards, allowing the vortex to move east and a block to form over the Atlantic. It means at least a week-long Atlantic dominated weather before something interesting happens! Karyo

Thanks for your thoughts. In other words we should forget the Siberian/Russian High and start looking to the west for the next cold spell. Fingers crossed! Karyo

This looks even worse for the UK as it makes it less likely to pull a continental flow. I', afraid we're moving further away from a cold outlook. Regarding the stratosphering warming, there are some interesting posts in the Stratospheric discussion thread, but GP hasn't mentioned it at all. Reading between the lines, he expects the la nina state that the atmosphere has entered to overide the stratospheric warming - similar to what happened last year! Edit: I see Chiono has just posted a better explanation... Karyo

I wholeheartedly agree! Anyway, the 18z is interesting throughout and has similarities with the 12z ECM. The ECM ensembles were milder than earlier runs. The 18z ensembles are unexciting: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess= It's an unclear picture so let's see where tomorrow will take us. Karyo

I am relieved to see the 12z UKMO. It looks a whole better than the other big two, with the Atlantic not looking as fearsome! Karyo

None of the 12z ensembles bring any cold upper air for next week: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess= And these are for London, which is the most likely to benefit from any east/southeasterly flow! What a turnaround from yesterday! Karyo