karyo

I agree that the GFS is characterised by large swings in its output! However, no matter which of the models is best, they all look unfavourable for any cold outbreak! The met office further outlook will be milder tomorrow, unless the 12z ECM saves the day. I would be happy with more of a high pressure influence (with surface cold). This would limit the rise of the CET. At the moment though, the Atlantic is gaining the upper hand and what looked like a mild blip over the weekend, now looks like the beginning of a mild period. Karyo

Still snowing and trying to increase in intensity. The flakes are becoming more noticeable! Hopefully the wind will ease as the day progresses. Karyo

Just started here too! Very light snow. Karyo

Thank you for the reply. Ok, so basically, it is the cold state of the stratosphere. Let's see whether this forecasted warming materialises and hope it propagates wornwards as quickly as possible. Karyo

Chiono, why is February not looking great? I have asked this question in the model output discussion, a few days ago, and nobody came up with a tangible asnwer! Karyo

Same here, so the slow thaw will probably continue through the night! I don't understand how they came up with those minimums. I also think that tomorrow's maximum will be more like 3 or 4c rather than the forecasted 1/2c. Karyo

The ECM is going the wrong way at 120 hours. Getting milder from the west! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0 Karyo

That's the 0z ECM! We'll see what the 12z shows soon... Karyo

Snowing moderately here too but it is sleety, wet snow. It damages the snow that is already on the ground. Horrible really! Karyo

The UKMO looks dreadful from 96 hours onwards - the Atlantic blasts through the block and we are in a southwesterly after that. It looks good up to 72 hours only! Karyo

Yes, I think that's correct. The 12z gfs is predicting the precipitation to be a bit more organised from this evening to the early hours so some snow is possible. My fear is that the temperature will not fall much due to the cloud cover, so there may be some slow thaw even with snow falling. Karyo

Tomorrow, most of the precipitation will be further north according to the bbc24 forecast. As for Tuesday, Wednesday, it's too early to tell. Still snowing lightly here and the thaw continuing. Edit: Monday's warning have been removed for our region! The only warnings remaining are for high ground in Wales and the Pennines. Karyo

Light snow here for the past half an hour. The problem is, even if the temperature drops, there does not seem to be any heavy precipitation on the radar! Karyo

It's ironic that the Pennines are able to eat away most of the precipitation that's coming from the east,but they don't stop the the mild influence of the North sea! The thaw is very noticeable here. The bbc forecasts mentioned that the wind will make the snow drift! Instead, it makes it melt! Karyo

A slow thaw in Manchester city centre! Rther surprised by it really, as yesterday's bbc forecast had us with a 0c maximum. Anyway, light snow is now falling. All eyes on Lincolnshire, were more precipitation is coming. Karyo

Indeed, if the 12z's verify, our snow cover will be safe! Not to mention the January CET! Karyo

According to the ECM, the 2nd Atlantic attack fails also: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0 The low undercuts once again and the cold spell goes on and on... The Atlantic gives up: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0 A bittingly cold run! Karyo

The 12z ECM keeps it cold for next week! Here's the 144 chart: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0 The Scandinavian block up to now, looks much better placed and further west than what the 0z was showing. Also worth noting that the 144 ECM is a colder version of the 144 UKMO even for a good part of Ireland! Karyo

I've had a fun-packed afternoon on the Pennines (near Stalybridge)! There was a light but icy northeasterly wind which made the snow drift in places! Light fluries from time to time too! Well, the bbc forecasts have moved the band of snow much further north than yesterday and the entire region should be affected starting from the southeastern areas around 3pm tomorrow and gradually extending northwards. The Pennine ares should see some heavy falls but for the rest, light to moderate snow is more likely unless we get lucky and catch some heavier pulses from the east/southeast. Very difficult to say which areas will be affected most at this stage, and certainly a case of watching the radar tomorrow! Looking further ahead, both GFS and UKMO keep it cold for next week as the next low (Tuesday) undercuts the high pressure lock and the cold spell is extended! Karyo

Well, that was a nice start to the day! I can see more showers making it through the day, although predominantly light. The 6z also shows the band of snow making it to our region tomorrow! It also has quite a few showers from tonight. Karyo

Light snow is falling here currently thanks to a decaying shower. Edit: some nice flakes are now falling! North Manchester looks like getting the best of this snow shower. No other reports?? Karyo

The latest bbc24 forecast has now fallen in line with the models, suggesting that the snow will reach our region tomorrow afternoon! It didn't look very heavy, but some moderate palses looked like mving from Lincolnshire in an easterly wind! Karyo

Yes, let's hope so! I could do with some disruption on Monday! It was awesome not having to work last Tuesday due to the snow! Karyo

I think northern parts of the region should do all right. Manchester only a dusting but I don't mind as there is plenty on the ground! The 18z gfs is very promising for Sunday and Monday, but the bbc forecasts have the snow to the south. Karyo

Light snow is now fallingin Manchester city centre! Karyo