karyo

I think Cumbria will most certainly see some snow from the band currently affecting the northeast. There seem to be quite a bit of energy there! Karyo

I seem to be on the southern extend of the band of snow. Getting a few flakes out of this http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/ Karyo

Yes, how ironic! Just as we were hoping for a quiet period. Karyo

Excellent, although it won't get any heavier than that! Karyo

You will very soon. It is coming from the northeast - from Leeds, to Darlington, to the east of Newcastle! The sky has gone yellow white to the east of me! Karyo

Manchester is about to enter this narrow band of mainly light snow! Karyo

Very light snow is falling here! Karyo

I can see the snow clouds to my east. Happy days will have it first and then me! Karyo

I can already see the cloud thickening to the east of me! Fingers crossed! Re: the 12z models: GFS and UKMO keep it cold. The ECM has other ideas however and wants to bring the Atlantic by midweek! Karyo

It is coming quite close now! Look at the latest radar:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/ A light covering on top of existing snow is likely I think! Karyo

It has gone partly cloudy here as the trough from the east is gradually approaching! I think the snow showers will cross our region but be light by then thanks to the Pennines. Generally more cloud than last night so the temperatures shouldn't get as low as last night. Karyo

Thank you both for the responses. I hope the models are overprogressive with trying to push away the cold too early! That was certainly the case with the December cold spell. Karyo

Could anybody explain why February will be mild? I am not disputing it, just need to see the reasoning behind this idea. I haven't followed the model output discussion thread recently and may have missed relevant posts. Thanks Karyo

The showers over the North Sea, associated with a trough, are looking very healthy! According to the bbc forecast, they should reach our region by early evening. As always, some intensity will be lost, by the time they get here, but the east/northeasterly flow that is developing should hopefully mean that they'll have much better luck than the ones last night, that just fizzled out before reaching us. Radar watching once again! Some snow flurries can't be ruled out tomorrow, as for Sunday, the bbc forecast had the snow only on southern areas while the GFS is showing a snowy day! Karyo

Some cloud has appeared to my east, towards the Pennines. I expect the temperature in Manchester to rise a little in the next half an hour. Karyo

I think by the time the showers move over us, they will be rather weak. The further south you are in the region the better. Tomorrow afternoon onwards, should be interesting though as a bit of a breeze will help to push them over the Pennines. The fax chart for midnight tomorrow is juicy: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess='>http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess= and still some snow showers on Saturday http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;ses Karyo

Yes and I find it quite surprisingly really as it is so cold! Karyo

The forecast I watched this morning was going for -7c so that's quite a difference in a few hours! Karyo

The latest bbc24 forecast had Manchester -12c in the morning! This is the lowest temperature I've ever seen on a bbc forecast for a city! It still showed snow showers overnight which seems quite odd to me. I would expect the temperature to be higher under partly cloudy conditions! Karyo

I think the first one will slowly weaken as it heads over land but we should still manage to get some light snow showers tonight (after midnight). The second one looks more juicy according to the precipitation forecasts and as you say the easterly flow will help to push it inland. Karyo

Thanks Alister, the 12z gfs (out now) is also picking up on this trough. Look at +15hours http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess= It places it a bit further north than UKMO/Met Office though. Edit: Nice area of snow coming tomorrow afternoon from the northeast! This is associated with the second trough! Karyo

Where is it? The latest satellite picture clearly shows the two areas of interest: the first one is to the east of Scotland and northeast England, moving slowly southwestwards. I think Pennine and southern parts of our region are more likely to be affected by snow showers in the early hours. Maimly light falls. The second one is to the west of Norway and as it moves southwestwards it should intensify somewhat and affect eastern Endland tomorrow afternoon. Then, with the developing easterly breeze, it is likely to cross the Pennines and affect us by the evening! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html Karyo

Yes, it might hit -10c before the cloud moves in! There could be an increasing northeasterly breeze ahead of the cloud which can limit the fall of the temperature. At the moment, there is no breath of wind and the sky is totally clear, just like under a strong high pressure cell. If it wasn't for the radar and the forecasts, I wouldn't expect any cloud for tonight. I can imagine that half an hour in the freezer was very painful for you! I waited for the bus for half an hour this morning when it was -10c here! It couldn't feel my feet but I liked it! lol Karyo

The latest bbc forecast went for -9c in Manchester for tonight! The only thing that will interfere with the temperature's free fall is the band of cloud and associated snow showers coming from the northeast! Karyo

Yes, that's good news! The 6z gfs is also showing the showers from the northeast making it to our region. Only light but an upgrade from the 0z. Besides, anything that falls will settle! Then it shows another band of showers for Friday coming from the east/northeast and more for the weekend. It is looking very wintry! Karyo