karyo
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Everything posted by karyo
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If the MJO is to blame then this can be easily solved if it moves as the forecasts suggest. Mind you, we both know how inaccurate they have been! Regarding the west based -NAO, am I right in thinking that once it sets up, it doesn't tend to easily move east/become east based? Karyo
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Well, we'll be glad to have you here no matter the model output! Seriously though, don't you think that this block to the east will just become a problem rather than a friend? It has the potential to keep the Atlantic systems over us or just to the west, with us stuck under a continuousy mild flow! Karyo
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Could it be that a stratospheric warming is not what we need when we have an already established cold pattern? Last winter was cold with a favourable nw-se jet until the major stratospheric warming occured and then we got trapped in a mild pattern for the rest of the winter? Just wondering... Karyo
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It's possible that the models have reacted to the westward move of the MJO. Maybe the MJO forecasts will verify for once and it will move east again in the coming days. GPs input here would be useful! Karyo
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It went to Phase 8 for a time on both occassions, at least for a time. Karyo
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I forgot to post the link showing the current state of the MJO: http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif As you can see, it has now gone back to Phase 6. Your link shows the forecast and it is good to see it is still expected to head for Phase 8 soon. However, the MJO forecasts are extremely unreliable so I always tend to focus on the current state rather than the predictions. Karyo
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An unfavourable development from the MJO! It has now moved back westwards to Phase 6! We need it to get towards phase 8 (east of the dateline)! Karyo
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The control looks great but only has support by 2-3 other members. The majority go for a milder/much less cold outlook! http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess= Karyo
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A good period of snow from north midlands northwards. It looks better than gfs for tomorrow. Karyo
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In Depth Model Discussion, Analysis and Summaries
karyo replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
If we get a west based -NAO and a ridge over the continent, as GP mentions, then a mild rainfest from the southwest is likely for February! Mind you, your last sentence brought a smile to my face! Karyo -
We may see increased uncertainy in the model output over the coming days because of this: http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif The MJO seems to be moving back to phase 6! This is not a good phase for northern blocking. We need to see it move to the east of the dateline again (i.e phases 7 and . Karyo
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It is hard to believe what a turnaround we have witnessed, in the models, in the last 24-36 hours! From alpine skiing in the southeast (to use the term of Steve Mur's excited post a few days ago) to ideal weather for the daffodills to flower! The fact that all this is expected to happen under a negative NAO/AO makes it even harder to swallow! Karyo
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All the models have struggled to an extent but not as much as the gfs. It is acceptable for a model to swing from one scenario to the next until it picks a strong enough signal, but the gfs keeps the wrong scenario for way too long! Karyo
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The gfs 12z has backtracked even further and now it basically shows Atlantic driven weather! The UKMO has been consistent throughout. I won't be paying much attention to what the gfs shows from now on. This model has gone trough a so called upgrade, but I seem no improvement. If anything, it continues to stick stubbornly to the wrong idea and inevitably backs down in the very end! Karyo
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I agree but I fear that the block will become stubborn to the east and we get stuck is mild Atlantic flow, as the systems are not able to move east enough to bring some polar maritime air. Mr Data nailed it earlier by saying that easterlies have been disappointing this winter. Our mighty cold and snowy spells came from the north and that's where we should focus on. Karyo
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Well, I decided to have a lie in this morning rather than get up and check the models early. What a good idea that was! The gfs has backtracked mejorly and so have the gefs and ecm encembles! The great lesson from this is, never look for an easterly that is in the 144-240 hour range. I can't believe some posters are still looking at the 6z gfs and say it still looks promising for next week! Haven't you noticed how much the gfs has changed since yesterday? Karyo
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What will it take to have another spotless day? Just as I thought we would have no more spots for a while, a new one formed! www.spaceweather.com Karyo
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Be prepared to give up though to avoid further disappointment! That's what I do anyway. Massive turnaround in the last 24 hours! Karyo
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Probably because a different forecaster did them tonight! Karyo
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Even more models are now picking up the signal for increased Atlantic energy. The change on the ECM is a huge blow I'm afraid! Karyo
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I've seen enough to say that the easterly is slowly drifting away! The 12z's are showing what we don't want to see! Karyo
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Are you sure? It looks mild to me! Karyo
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I agree with what you say! I look at the models for trends rather than specifics and the trend so far today is not good, i.e. reduced chance for the easterly to develop as there is a shift towards the UKMO scenario, whether that is from some operationals or ensembles. But as you say, it could be that the signal that has been picked is wrong. I'd love this to be the case and either way, the 12z's will/should show a clearer picture. Karyo
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I am not pleased with this morning's output! A definate shift towards the UKMO scenario by the ECM operational and the GFS ensembles: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess= I think the gfs hasn't picked a signal for increased Atlantic energy and continues to show cold outputs. I am expecting this signal to be picked by all models by the end of today! Karyo
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I still refuse to look at the possibility for the easterly seriously! It is simply to far in FI to invest any effort and attention on it. However, I am pleased to see the wind veering more northwesterly by the later part of the weekend with widespread snow showers affecting many western areas! Karyo
