karyo

I'd say they start to look like the ensembles just before the start of the last cold spell! The mean was an almost horizontal line several degrees below zero! It didn't turn out bad at all! By the way, I agree with what's been said by the other posters from the northwest. It is unlikely to beat the last cold spell here, especially in terms of snow! However, any type of cold will make me happy! :unsure: Karyo

The 18z ensembles are remarkable! http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess= Karyo

I think the northwesterly winds will bring the showers to western parts Sun/Mon. Until then most of the action will be over the Irish sea. Karyo

I am not even looking at the potential for the easterly yet! At this range, so many things can go wrong so no point getting our hopes high. The ECM is disappointing for the weekend's northerly as well! It has a straight northerly so the Scottish highlands will kill any precipitation, with the inland areas staying dry. Yesterday's ECM had several swings in the wind direction (nw to ne) which would benefit many more areas. Karyo

The 12z ECM is a far cry from yesterday's 12z but at 168 hours it is a slight improvement to the 0z output. Karyo

The ECM 144 hours is very wintry! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0 A good deal better than the UKMO, with the Atlantic systems unable to progress eastwards! Karyo

Lovely 120 hours chart from the ECM: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0 Snow showers for many, not just the north and east. Strong winds too! Karyo

The 18z ensembles show huge scatter from the 3rd February onwards as opposed to the warm up that was shown in the 12z ensembles. The operational was warmer than the mean and the control very cold! http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess= Let's hope this is a trend! Nick, you are so fast! Karyo

Amazing strengthening, if it verifies! The only negative is the risk to go back to Phase 6, which we don't want! Karyo

The MJO is slowing down in speed and strengthens at the same time! http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif A good development, as the longer it stays in phases 7 and 8 the better for northern blocking. Karyo

Unfortunately, the ECM doesn't want to know and it looks horrible at the same timeframe! Karyo

hi weatherjunkie, what does the NAO outlook have to do with the stratosphere? Karyo

I eas expecting to see loads of posts and analysis here today? Surely, things are looking good! http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/times?plot=temps&alert=1 Karyo

So far from the 12z's the GFS only brings a blink and you'll miss it northwesterly while the UKMO brings something much better! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021 Karyo

Nice MJO progress into phase 7 http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif This ties well with the possibility for a northerly. GP posted a few days ago in the Technical Model discussion thread, the composites of phase 7 and 8 for late Jan/early Feb, showing a juicy northerly for northwest Europe. No point worrying about mild westerlies for the later outlook. We've just had the best first half of winter for decades! 2-3 days cold outbreaks will do just fine for me. Hopefully something more long lasting for the second half of February/March with the helpof the stratospheric warming. Karyo

It could take a few weeks to see the effects of the current stratospheric warming. Mid February maybe? Mind you, last winter was quite blocked and cold, until the stratospheric warming occured and then we had mild weather for the second half of February and an uneventful start to spring! Karyo

That's a good point Steve, they had that disclaimer for the last 3 days or so! Edit: The MJO continues to progress towards phase 7 http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif Karyo

Yes, a really nice update today. They must be expecting the northerly to come off, so that's good news! Hopefully, we should see all the models come on board in the next couple of days. Karyo

The 12z UKMO is an improvement to it's 0z output! I wonder if it is picking up a new signal for reduced energy in the northern arm. However, it's 144 hours chart looks a bit far fetched to me - not what I would expect to see after the 120 hours chart. Karyo

hi Sebastian, In this case, we need the MJO to enter phase 8 to amplify the pattern so that the forecasted high pressure can extend further north into more northern latitudes. If that happens, we have a good chance to get a northerly rather than a west/northwesterly flow midified by the Atlantic. Please refer to the posts by GP this morning. This link: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/forca.shtml has some good info as well as the forecast. As you can see, the forecast doesn't look that hopeful for this wave to enter phase 8, but I have to say the forecasts have been rather inaccurate over the last few months, so worth watching. I also find satellite watching quite useful, as you can see the latest flare ups of convection in the tropics. I hope that's a start! Karyo

Same here! In fact for the Manchester area, you need to go many decades back to match the cold and snow we've experienced since December! I liked last winter also, but not much snow! I think the 12z's should meet somewhere in the middle, with high pressure the main theme. The further north you are, the more Atlantic influence you will see... Karyo

As snowmanchris already mentioned, nice MJO progress towards the more favourable phases: http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif We need to see it strengthen and hopefully enter phase 7 and 8, for the high to edge further north! Karyo

Thank you GP, I appreciate your response! This gives us something to look out for. Karyo The Met Office further outlook doesn't sound too bad! Around average for the west and north, below average for the east and south. The uncertainty is highlighted once again! Karyo

GP, it sounds mild and dry to me! Any chance for the high to ridge northwards, or a renewed spell of northern blocking in February, with the help of a warm stratosphere? Give us some hope however slight please... Failing that, promise we'll get a cold March! lol Karyo

I'm afraid the 6z ensembles highlight the departure from the easterly scenario! http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess= The mean only touches -5c upper air for a short time, and that's for London! Not much support for a northerly of any substance either. However, at least the outlook doesn't look diabolically mild! Let's hope the stratospheric warming will make it's effects felt sometime next month. Karyo