karyo
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Everything posted by karyo
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Yes, quite a shift upwards from the ensembles http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess= Not a hint of a northerly there, which I find disappointing. Karyo
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Since December sunspot activity has increased significantly! The quiet sun is a distant memory and I find it very disappointing! I want more winters like the one we've just had, not to go back to the late 1990s and early 2000s! Karyo
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Yes, for eastern/southeastern areas, there is some interest for a time. However, I find the later ECM output disappointing as it doesn't have the slightest hint of a northerly (unlike the gfs). As you say, northerlies are the best source for wintry weather in spring and that's just what we need now! Karyo
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Your post has just made me laugh loud and I am in the office! :-0 The model output is boring this morning with nothing particularly promising on offer. I always look for cold in the models regardless of the time of year and I would love a proper northerly. March can often be very good for that and 2006, 2007 and 08 are just a few recent examples. Karyo
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No proper easterly on the 12z gfs and no northerly either! However, a continuation of below average temperatures is looking likely1 Karyo
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The 6z gfs downgrades the easterly and doesn't offer the potential for a northerly either (unlike the ECM). The gefs ensembles are even worse with the mean on-7c for a time before rising. Previous ensembles (0z and 18z) had the mean at about -10c. Karyo
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The warnings for Sunday have now been removed for the biggest part of England and the entire Wales! The rain may even struggle to get to Manchester. Next week is looking interesting but we need to see how things evolve over the next couple of days! Karyo
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The 12z ECM has upgraded the strength of the low. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php Karyo
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I have a feeling the low will be downgraded in future output. The 0z ECM was the first to start with this trend and the gfs is following! Karyo
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The UKMO is late on Meteociel! Karyo
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I couldn't agree more with this! There is exceptional snowfall in Scotland and tomorrow for the far north of England, yet nobody is mentioning it. Nothing in the news either despite Scotish viewers e-mailing the bbc to say they have a foot of snow! You'd think Scotland is not part of the UK! Back to the models and I am pleased to see the below average theme continuing! The ECM is looking promising in the later stages with plenty of blocking in the right places! Karyo
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I agree with your post, although in this case, I don't belong in the 'most' category! Your post is a good example of how satisfied most of us feel in terms of cold and snow, this winter! As a result, very few people bother to post anything lately. Anyway, the 6z ensembles look rather chilly, so spring is definately on hold, and to be honest, I hope it stays that way for some time yet! http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess= Karyo
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It is rather breezy today, so I expect the snow to be blowing around when it arrives. I am not that bothered about how many cms we get on the ground as the next 2 days will be somewhat milder with some rain, so any accumulation will be very short lived! There may well be some rain on the back edge of the band tonight... There is also interest for later in the week as the cold air moves back over us again, so any milder weather should be short lived! The fun continues! Karyo
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Nice cooling trend in the De Bilt Ensembles! http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png Karyo
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I was relatively relieved to see the 12z gfs placing the lows further south but the UKMO is rather disappointing. It takes everything further north and it has been consistent in doing so. Karyo
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The update seems like a copy and paste job from previous days. It still says however, that temperatures will be recovering in the further outlook, especially in the south. So, this indicates that the lows will be tracking further north, just not as soon as the gfs suggests. Karyo
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I am slightly disappointed with this morning's UKMO and 6z GFS, as they gradually take the lows more north. As a consequence milder, rainy weather affects England and Wales next week. The ensembles also show this trend. The ECM looks much better however, with everything further south. The 12zs will probably show who is right.The met office further outlook should also show whether this is a new trend! Karyo
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Nice to see you sticking to your guns CC! I am a lot less optimistic as the models have been reluctant to show anything really cold and now trending milder after Tuesday next week. Personally, I am rather enjoying this maritime wintry weather and 'll be sad to see it go! Karyo
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Tomorrow's band will not even make it here. It will affect the Midlands. I am hopeful for snow showers on Friday as the wind turns west/northwest and the uppers are sufficiently cold. Karyo
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Hardly anything left in the band! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html This must be the fastest decaying precipitation band ever! Karyo
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The band has weakened considerably in the last couple of hours so I am not optimistic! Karyo
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Yes, a much colder 12z so far. The general low pressure is placed further south and east. A wintry week and weekend coming up! Karyo
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Indeed! It was a lovely surprise to wake up to heavy snowfall this morning! So pleased that the forecasts for a mild February didn't materialise. Any wintry weather we get, after such a winter is a bonus! Karyo
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I really hope you're right! So far, the extended De Bilt ensembles don't look good! http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png Karyo
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Very tasty! In fact, I see plenty of opportunities for snow for northwest England over the weekend. I've had some heavy snow this morning! North Manchester had quite a lot while south Manchester nothing! Karyo
