karyo

Just had 10 mins of light snow, leaving a dusting on surfaces. Karyo

Hard to say on the precipitation chart. The bbc forecast talked only about snow showers (no rain) and the gfs is showing uppers lower than -5 so we should be ok. I'll be flying back from Amsterdam tomorrow morning, so hope to see the snow clouds from above! Karyo

The latest fax chart for Saturday is not as good: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess= However, tomorrow's chart shows a trough reaching our region: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess= The shortwave doesn't look as intense as significant as yesterday. Karyo

Plenty of precipitation for Northwest England and Wales! Ties well with the latest bbc24 forecast saying snow showers moving from Scotland into northern parts of England and then further south. Karyo

That looks nice for tomorrow Mr Data! Then we have more possibilities for Saturday. Karyo

The afternoon models have upgraded the little low coming from the northeast on Saturday! The gfs is even showing a stream of snow showers from the Irish sea as the wind temporarily switches to the northeast! Very interesting development for my region! The 18z breaks down the northern blocking relatively fast but it settles a high over us which, as already mentioned, will give very cold weather on the surface. In fact this is my dream weather: snow and then a long lasting high for severe cold! Karyo

What they are doing, is to focus on the wintry potential for the southeast! Well, we can do the same for our region. There are quite a few of us in the northwest. A couple of weeks ago I was not feeling like posting on the model thread anymore but now I feel like making my voice heard! Karyo

I totally agree with you! It is disappointing to see knowledgable posters becoming so biased. Maybe the answer would be for us to make our presence felt in the model discussion thread! Karyo

I am really pleased the Saturday's little feature is being upgraded! The ECM precipitation charts also show it nicely :http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec The brief northwesterly flow ahead of the system opens up the possibility of snow showers (little streamer?) but there is also good potential for more organised showers to cross our region from east to west, as the ECM shows, as the sysatem transfers from the north sea to the Irish sea. We will have a few frosry nights by then, so better potential for snow to stick! Next week is also looking interesting, as the northeasterly wind should push some snow showers through the Pennines and of course it will be freezing cold! Karyo

Another failed seasonal forecast for the Met Office! I am really pleased... Karyo

The latest bbc24 forecast shows the band of precipitation fizzling out in the next few hours and drying up. The other band over Wales and the midlands is not going to make it here. Then tomorrow it looks dry for the most part, but a band of showers from northeast England will be moving south and may affect our region in the evening. Only some flurries making it to our region but quite a few showers for the Pennines for a time. Tha fax chart for midnight tomorrow shows a trough over Yorkshire http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess= The next opportunity is Saturday when a weakening shortwave from the north/northeast will be moving southwestwards. The fax chart for Saturday shows this with two associated troughs, one on the east coast and one affecting Scotland and northern Ireland. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess= Unfortunately the winds will go very light by then meaning that the showers may not make it from the east/northeast but certainly something to watch as details will change. Ideally, we need this sortwave a little further south! Karyo

Yes, it is looking unlikely to go below 3.0 which is unfortunate. If only we could have a clear night tonight rather than the blanket of cloud! A sub 3.0 month would have shut many (global warming) mouths! Nevertheless, it is a very good result for an el nino December! Karyo

The t+96 chart for Saturday shows a lovely looking low over Scotland with associated troughs that should bring snow in many northern areas as it slowly moves west/southwest. This is in line with the ECM and is a feature that is looking more prominent in the 12z than it did in the 0z. Karyo

The 12z gfs has the band reaching us, giving prolonged precipitation. The UKMO shows much less of precipitation. There could be some nice surprises by morning for elevated areas of the region. Karyo

The reason I don't expect the second (and heavier) band reaching us is because the first band has stalled just south of Manchester. If the first one was still moving northwards there would be a better chance for the second one to make it here. It might still do much later, but it will weaken a lot as all the major models show. Karyo

The weather forecast (bbc24) I watched at 12:30pm showed some rain reaching our region with hill snow. The this fizzles out during the day tomorrow. Unless something changed since 12:30, I can't see what would make them give us this flash warning. I don't think the precipitation will be heavy enough when it gets here and I doubt it will be of snow apart from hilly locations. Currently, I have 4c here and the last remaining snow/ice is slowly melting! I hope I'm wrong! Karyo

And ironically, by then we will be dry! I'll keep an eye for any snow showers making it through the Pennines Friday/Saturday but it has to be said nothing organised is expected. Karyo

From what I can see, the 0z ECM brings something less cold from 144 hours as the approaching low get's too far west and cuts off the cold flow. This was also shown on the 12z but to a lesser extend. Karyo

Re: later in the week, I would expect eastern and northern Scotland, maybe northeast England too, to do really well under a northeasterly flow. Any snow showers will probably struggle to get here, unless a trough forms. Karyo

This means shows where the heaviest precipitation is expected - further south than our region. So we might get sleet, while further south they get heavy snowfall! The ECM precipitation charts show our region getting only light precipitation and generally the further southwest you are the better. http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec Karyo

I mean that the 12z is placing the band of heavy precipitation further south than the previous runs did (0z and 6z). The other models have the precipitation even further south, so more central areas of the country have the heaviest falls. Still waiting for the ECM of course... Karyo

When there is heavy precipitation (loke the gfs shows) and an easterly flow, the upper air temperature is not so much of a problem (look last Wednesday as a recent example). However, the 12z gfs has shifted everything considerably to the south and it will probably continue to do so, to come more in line with the other models. Therefore, I think we'll end up dry and cold for much of this week! I will be gutted to see the midlands southwards getting loads of snow and us missing out! The model output discussion has a strong south/southeast bias and I can't be bothered posting there anymore! Karyo

The morning bbc24 forecasts were showing the band of precipitation approahing us from the south tomorrow afternoon, and then stalling over us on Wednesday. However, the latest ones, show the band stalling over Wales and the Midlands, while our region stays dry. I hope they are wrong, because if the band doesn't make it here tomorrow or Wednesday, then it will be predominantly dry for the rest of the week! Karyo

I agree winterman, the lengthening of the cold spell is very important as it opens the door for many snow opportunities! I just think I will feel very frustrated by the middle of the week, seing heavy snow reports from Birmingham (where I used to live) while we are dry! Anyway, by the end of the week we should catch a trough or a shortwave with decent snowfall! All good news and a far cry from most recent winters! Karyo

Looking into next week, another cold spell is upon us! It never really went properly mild anyway! The afternoon models (ECM and UKMO 12z's) seem to prolong the cold spell which is good news! However, they also keep the precipitation further south, so Wales and the Midlands benefits from sustained snowfall while we stay mostly dry. If this trend continues,we will have to catch snow showers in the east/northeast wind so hit and miss. Let's hope we struck lucky again. Karyo