Sawel

According to raintoday.co.uk it's now snowing in Dundee... Damn wish I was back there.

God help anyone reading that thread and wanting to learn from it. Some absolute garbage being spouted in there today.

This is a question for Norrance if you're reading this (or anyone else in Dundee)... How much snow is on the ground now? When I left to go home to N.I for xmas there were 4 inches or so. Has much of it melted? We've had a bit of a thaw here today with a bit of rain. I notice that there's to be some snow tomorrow night across the central belt and up towards Dundee...

This post is in reply to a post by Worzel on the old MO thread. Worzel you said this..."So in all the confusion we're back to looking at the GEM as a viable model.... " The best verifiying models at +120 hrs in order are.... ECM --> UKMO --> GEM --> GFS The best verifiying models at +144 hrs in order are.... ECM --> UKMO --> GEM --> GFS People on here talk about the "big 3" as being the ECM, the UKMO and the GFS but the GEM is a better verifying model than the GFS. Just because we can access much more information on 4 GFS runs a day compared to the limited information we can see on the GEM twice a day, people don't even bother their backsides looking at the GEM. In reality, the big 3 consists of the ECM, UKMO and the GEM. http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz5.html (120 hrs) http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz6.html (144 hrs)

The nearest official weather station to me is in Castlederg, and it recorded a minimum of -10.5 last night and the conditions there are similar to they are here. The only other time I can remember it being as cold and possibly colder was from the Christmas 1995 event. It snowed heavily on Christmas day, and dumped a good 7 inches. It lay for a week and during that week the temperature was similar to what was recorded last night if not colder. I still remember the ITV weather forecast during that period, warning of temperatures of -13c in parts of N. Ireland.

The main band has passed here now it seems.... it snowed off and on without getting overly heavy for about 40 mins. All in all quite disappointing to say the least.

Castlederg hits -10.5c at 01:00 hours.

Cheers LS, my nearest official weather station here in N.I recorded -8.8c at 9pm, Only Altnaharra is recording a lower temperature! There's 4 inches of snow on the ground and a freezing fog, the Snow is incredibly hard, terrific winter scenes! On my journey from Dundee to Prestwick today, which is 100+ miles, Everywhere had snow basically. Dundee and Perth had similar amounts of 4+ inches approx and this was the case until just North of Stirling where there wasn't much at all, not even an inch. Just south of Stirling the amounts were probably 5 inches or more and into Glasgow city there was a decent amount. 15 miles West of Glasgow provided some stunning scenery with at least 6 inches of snow I'd say. Kilmarnock had an ok fall and further west from here the snow amounts reduced with Prestwick basically having nothing. Then when I flew across the North of N Ireland.The snow could be seen as far as the eye could see all over the province with the far North coast showing more green than white. I thoroughly enjoyed my trip today and don't think I turned away for a moment from looking out the window of the bus and plane!

I see Castlederg recorded -8.8c at 9pm (latest reading) according to the Met Office site. Only Altnaharra in Highland Scotland is recording a colder temperature out of all the official UK weather stations. It recorded a toasty -14.8c at the same time.

I'm back in N. Ireland for Christmas, does anyone know if Dundee had snow today? I see much of E Scotland is under a severe weather warning.

It's been snowing heavily this past 2 and a half hours. There's 10 cms at the moment.

Really chucking it down here a couple of cms already

The heavier stuff doesn't seem to be far away... I need to go to bed myself as I have to get up for work at 8.... Hope to see a few inches in the morning!

and some light snow has started....

Dalwhinnie recorded the lowest minimum of -15.7c and lowest maximum of -8.4c in the 24 hours up to 9pm on 22/12/09. Just looked at the Met Office radar and that band of precipitation is very close now.....

Yes you're right there, I think the lesson is to never take their forecasts as gospel. We've had a few surprises since last thursday and have had snow lying on the ground for almost 6 days now... A couple more inches tonight would be more than welcome! Perth is included in the weather warning issued by the Met Office that also includes Dundee and Angus county.

Hi Amanda, I wasn't really expecting anything because the UKMO 12z charts and forecasts on the Met Office website just showed it being dry here... If we get a decent fall then it will be well done to the GFS.

Well well well, what do we have here.......... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ta/ta_forecast_warnings.html Well I'm certainly sure now after that weather warning.

I'm not expecting anything here really, The Met Office are basically having none of it as far as the snow getting this far south.

The UKMO 12z charts, the BBC forecasts and the Met Office website don't look good for snow making it down the East coast tonight. The main bulk of the snow is confined to Aberdeenshire and North Angus. The GFS 12 charts were at odds with this and it will be interesting to see what the 18z run brings.

This is strange because the GFS precipitation charts for the band of snow in the NE differ to quite an extent from what the UKMO is showing for the overnight period. Here's what the GFS is showing http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn124.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn184.png and the UKMO http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm123.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm183.gif The GFS shows snow moving down the East of Scotland and making it just down past Edinburgh. The UKMO doesn't show as much precipitation and this doesn't even make it any further South than say Montrose... The BBC forecasts don't look too inspiring for Snow making it as far South as the GFS is showing. But which will be right? I hope the GFS!

We didn't have any rain at all. I think we missed the warmer sector and had heavy snow for 30 mins. Tomorrow (sunday) looks good for the western half of the country and the latest UKMO runs suggest the East may get something on monday.

I use the stats on this site- http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz6.html The pecking order at 144 hours is ECM--> UKMO--> GEM--> GFS It's the same order at 120 hours (5 days)

Why not? The ECM is the only model with a better verification record than the UKMO at 144 hours.

That band has already passed through here.... It snowed heavily for half an hour, have a few cms and that's it really. I thought it would last a lot longer than that... oh well.