Sawel

Looking at the latest verification statistics, it is becoming clear that the UKMO is breathing down the neck of the ECM for best verifying model at +120 and +144 hours. There isn't much in it, especially at +120 hours, with the ECM on 911.31 and the UKMO on 904.11. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz5.html http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz6.html The GFS has not verified better than the UKMO at +120 hrs for 14 days in a row and counting. At 144 hrs it has not verified better for 11 days in a row and counting. People talk about the "big 3" but these stats show that right now it's the big 2 with the GFS well behind scrapping it out with the GEM for 3rd best verifying model.

Sorry Ian, it's blatantly obvious that SnowBallz is Jemtom. Here's the latest verification stats at +120 hrs http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/graphics/acz5.gif and +144 hrs http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/graphics/acz6.gif Apparently the ECM and UKMO have had very recent upgrades.

Well for a model to verifiy best 5 out of this past 7 times would indicate that it is performing "head and shoulders..." would it not? I used 7 days at it is an indication of how each model is performing at the moment. The ECM over the longer distance is, and always will be the king of the models at both +120 and 144 hours. Didn't the NOAA come out and say that the GFS doesn't perform as well as the ECM due to the "initialisation of data" or something like that? I'm not sure what they meant.

Yes the unjustified criticisms of the UKMO at +144 hrs always baffled me. There's no doubt the GFS can be pretty shocking at times.

By looking at the archives of how the models have performed from 2001 to present, the UKMO has been performing considerably better at +144 hrs since 2007 it would appear (although I haven't checked every single month). There's very few months since then where it has verified anything other than 2nd best (after the ECM). Whereas before this, it verified second best much less. I think some people on here are guilty of labelling the UKMO a poor model at +144 based on what it may have been like 5+ years ago. Hopefully we'll get no more "but the UKMO rarely verifies at +144 hours..." because those stats put that comment to bed. The archive is here- http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/monarch6.html

Looking at the verification stats, The UKMO has been performing head and shoulders above the other models at both 120 and 144 hours for this past 7 days. at 120 hrs the UKMO has verified best for 4 out of this past 7 days, has tied with the ECM once and the ECM has only verified best once and GFS once. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/graphics/acz5.gif at 144 hrs the UKMO has verified best 5 out of this past 7 days, with the ECM verifying best once and the GFS once. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/graphics/acz6.gif It's worth noting that the GFS has been performing very poorly for this past 6 days, and the GEM has been pretty dire too.

The UKMO 12z has the Atlantic in control. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=120&carte=1021

Excellent post. It is very frustrating reading through this thread sometimes. It would be better if the model discussion thread was an "invite only" thread with yourself and a few other informative posters giving an accurate reflection of what exactly the output is showing.

Ian Brown made a good point about some of the model output this past few days, these charts are unique to some younger posters. That is a cold looking chart in my opinion, much of Eastern Britain would have heavy snow showers and temperatures would be cold/very cold. These kind of charts we're seeing from +120 hrs onwards are a throwback to the 80's. I would love for these charts to verify.

It's fascinating stuff Ian, some places could see very large amounts of snow in any "battleground" scenario and after this we could get some bitter easterly winds coming in from the East. Exciting times...

GFS shows snow for Scotland on wednesday, will be interesting to see what the UKMO shows.

This 120 hr FAX chart actually looks quite good for much of Scotland. http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif It brings the easterly feed further North than what the ECM 12z Op was showing and the 12Z UKMO ECM 120 hrs http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif UKMO 120 hrs http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif Maybe the METO used the ECM ensemble mean. All in all, a slight tweak here and there with either bring us in on the fun or have us miss altogether. EDIT: Great minds think alike LS

Yes todays runs have been a bit disappointing with regards to this easterly "event" for those in the places that you mentioned. Maybe tomorrow the models will show something different but we're around 120 hour territory here- something the models should have a good grip on, especially the ECM as it's been performing well above the other models at +120 hrs this past couple of weeks.

Wow, Dundee had 50cm of snow in Feb 1980? that is incredible... I was born in 1980 and moved to Dundee in 1999. Since I moved here, The heaviest fall i've seen is probably 15cms during my time here... I found an article on the Dundee City Council website from the bygone news section for February 1978. "Dundee was shakily recovering yesterday after the worst blizzard to hit the city and the East Coast in 30 years. The city was covered by a 10-12" blanket of snow. Householders undertook a variety of snow-clearing operations digging out their cars, clearing footpaths etc. Motorists appeared to have lef their cars at home except for essential journeys and because of this central streets in Dundee still carried several inches of snow." Do you remember how Dundee fared in the Jan 1987 event? how about Feb 1991?

The Sperrins are BURIED in snow. You can tell theres a lot of snow when all you can see is brilliant white and nothing else, they look like they've been painted white!

I hope to be greeted by Snow when I get back to Dundee on saturday.

Funny you should say that as I'm flying into Prestwick on saturday... Prestwick is normally milder and I'd be surprised if there were any problems flying into it. The charts show the possibility of snowfall on friday into late saturday..... A North Easterly wind will possibly be blowing snow showers into Eastern parts of Scotland but Western parts may catch some of these as well if the wind is strong enough. Some central and Western parts have done quite well in past events when there has been Easterly winds. Going by the latest output, the best prospects lie between thursday and late saturday for snow. It's difficult to say if there will be problems with your flight. In my opinion I think you'll be ok as Glasgow Airport is a little bit sheltered from an Easterly wind due to its Western proximity.

Weatheronline shows Aviemore at -11.0c at 1am, with Tulloch Bridge at -14.1c and Strathallan at -13.5c. Met Office website latest reading (1am) shows Aviemore at -11c too. Spud_nick I went on the BBC website myself and what you're looking at is a forecasted figure, not an actual reading. It says forecast above -15c.

I see Strathallan in Perthshire has hit -12.7c at midnight (latest reading). Brrrrr

It does look better on the UKMO and ECM runs so you're right, I shouldn't sweat it. The GFS has been performing awfully this past couple of days anyway... On the +144 hrs verification charts it verified worst model for yesterday and same again for today. The NOGAPS model even beat it

I think that shortwave off the coast off Norway is being a real pain in the backside. It's stopping a proper NE flow and seems to be holding the coldest air back, then when the shortwave hits our shores, there's very little PPN left!

Thanks Polarlow, I stay near the Law so I imagine conditions are fairly similar there. Can't believe how long we've had snow on the ground now....

Thanks for the replies Hiya, Norrance and Amanda! We still have a couple of inches lying here, the roads are bad and the footpaths are literally an ice-rink. I don't remember snow lying this long in N.I in my lifetime, even the 7 inches of snow on xmas day and boxing day in 1995 didn't last as long as this. It rained yesterday and the day before but there's still a fair amount of snow around... Eastern Scotland is looking good for some snow from tomorrow night onwards, Hope it greets me this saturday when I'm back in Dundee!

If Norrance or Amanda_Langlands are reading this- can you tell how much snow there is in Dundee? I've been away since Christmas eve and I'm back in Dundee this saturday.

I think some people need to relax and not take every single GFS run as the gospel. Let's get the facts straight... Some people are too hung up on what the GFS shows because it runs out 4 times a day and we can access the entire run out to +384 hours including precipitation charts and temperature charts and pretty much everything associated with it as it's free to the public. The GFS verifies 4th out of all the models. It is behind the ECM, UKMO and the GEM. We only have limited access to the UKMO and the GEM so some people ignore what the say despite the fact that they verify better than the GFS. Someone posted earlier about the "big two" when referring to the ECM and GFS, how wrong that is... These verification stats tell the story. The ECM has been the best model this past 10 days at 120 hrs, very consistent to say the least. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz5.html Come on people, stop wrist-slitting after every single GFS run.