Sawel

I think the GFS 18z is worse than the 12z and is nowhere near as good as what the ECM showed earlier at 96 hrs.

Yes there has been lots of high points and low points with the model output this last week... soem fascinating stuff for sure. The 72 hr FAX chart is welcome news for us up here as it is basically the 72 hour ECM output.

But the ECM has the low centred further North than the GFS and the UKMO and this allows a better and longer lasting easterly feed. By going with the ECM output for the fax charts, this bodes well for us, as this would increase our chances of snowfall. The UKMO and GFS output are both poor for Scotland, but the ECM output suggest snow showers for here now and basically the whole way down the East coast of Britain. The FAX is the 72 hour ECM output that the METO have went for so that's definitely a positive thing.

Great to see the METO 72 hour fax chart going with the ECM output. That's a good start. Hopefully the GFS 18z will look a little different later in the medium range too.

The strange thing is, the big difference between the ECM and the UKMO/GFS with the positioning of that Low coming out of Scandinavia is not not happening at 120 hrs, but 72 hours or even less than that! The positioning of that Low is what determines the snow potential here... The GFS 18z will be interesting, will it differ once again from the ECM at such a short range?

Looks dry for Scotland unfortunately, oh well, let's wait for the UKMO and ECM.

Hi LomondSnowstorm... just watching the 12z coming out now, it's looking worse for us. Oh well, I still expect slight changes here and there, and they can make all the difference. Yes that shortwave seems to be causing the models a lot of problems, will be a day or 2 yet before we can be more confident as to who will get the white stuff and who won't.

Hi Steve, interesting you should bring this up as the most recent GFS runs only offer brief NE/E winds with little precipitation http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png and by 144 it's all over. ECM looks much better for everyone during the same time range http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif ECM looks to have more PPN around and eastern parts of Scotland would be able to join in with the "fun and games". I hope ECM has the better handle of these things and the low is kept a bit further to the N/NW.

So far, looks to be more like the ECM 12z run than the GFS 12z.

lol, I liked that

lol can you imagine if the ECM, UKMO or GFS showed that at +96?

The UKMO is not a top model? The only model that verifies consistently better than the UKMO at 120 hrs and 144 hrs is the ECM.

Why do some people on here slate the UKMO +144 hrs? The only model that consistently verifies better than the UKMO at +144 hrs is the ECM. Unless I'm misreading the stats on this site (and I don't think I am) then the UKMO needs to be cut some slack. http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/

The ECM is the only model that consistently beats the UKMO at +144 hours. The UKMO performs better at +144 hrs than the rest of the models. You'll find the relevant verification stats on this site http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html It's unfair to say the UKMO verification record at +144 hrs is very poor.

Yes I've changed my mind a bit too... it was worth getting little snow last week to have a good fall like this. Definitely the best snow we've had in at least 3 years, maybe even longer. So much for the snow to turn to rain as the milder air moved in.... it stayed as snow, never melted and the temperature was close to zero all day and now it's freezing!

Wow, what a day. Was snowing when I got up this morning (around 830 am) and didn't stop until close to 3 o clock. Was sent home from work early and the Travel Dundee buses stopped all services so the snow ploughs could clear all roads. It even made the news. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/taysid...ral/7885785.stm I measured 12 cms of snow where I am. Here's a few pics taken very near where I live. All in all, the best snow we've had for at least 3 years, probably around 5.

Yes same with here, but looking at the radar I think it will fizzle out in the next half an hour or so. An excellent covering out there, I'll measure it later when I'm on my break.

Well well, so we manage to get a decent fall of snow from this cold spell. I'm guessing there's around 4 inches of snow out there, perhaps more. Pity it's to turn to rain later.

Nice post shuggee. The snow desert of Dundee to get some snow before the rain? I've learned to never get my hopes up!

We had a decent and unexpected fall at the start of winter that brought close to 5 inches of snow but other than that, this winter has been very disappointing yet again so far.

And Dundee to miss out..............AGAIN.

Nothing here last night. Dundee has faired very poorly from this cold spell. Very little in the way of precipitation and has been a massive disappointment in general.

It snowed very very lightly for about a minute, looks like that's my lot.

Nothing here. Surprise surprise EDIT- actually I've just looked out and it's snowing very lightly.

UKMO 12z and GFS 12z (and it's parallel run) at odds with eachother over how much precipitation makes it to the east of Scotland tonight and early tomorrow morning The UKMO shows the preciptation fizzling out as it moves east across Scotland whereas the GFS shows it actually pepping up. UKMO- http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm063.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm123.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm183.gif GFS- http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn064.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn124.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn184.png We'll see who is right tomorrow.