Jane Louise

Well ain't that a surprise!!! after being surrounded by a few storms today, as per usual they decided to head off far away from my location grrrrrrrrrrrrr. I'm not even gonna mention about anything tomorrow.

Beautiful convection building to my North West with an anvil. Also looking good on the radar. I'm keeping me fingers crossed as always Lol.

http://www.estofex.org/

From Ian Fergusson: Impressive convection near S Bristol: showers and storms today for many areas pic.twitter.com/RRM7m2p37t https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/361422821928353794

Good convection here. Just waiting for forecasts from Estofex, Nick F and others to tie in with todays potential .

And here's one from UKWW. Again, you'll have to pop along to the site to see the map lol. My comp just won't upload maps. Slight to Moderate Risk of Thundery Showers Ireland and UK 12z-21z Risk of Funnel/ Low Level Mesocyclones at Cloud Base Central South England Stationary low remains west of Ireland maintaining unstable polar maritime flow across UK and Ireland through today. Moderate upper trough continues to increase upper lift and lapse rates for the whole region. Mid to low level jet axis expected to develop central south England later in the day where some isolated thunderstorms could well develop. Today in general will see a much more solid risk of storms based within the boundary layer as better surface moisture is advected north from Biscay. Both GFS and WRF are pushing for high CAPE values over Ireland and Wales/ Midlands for around 1200 j/kg. We can therefore expect to see some very lively sferic activity for a time today. Though for most parts within a weakly sheared, saturated upper environment and only weak convergence we might expect some limit to organisation. Ironically my focus today looks to be much further south where the CAPE's are transient and much less than the aforesaid regions. It is expected that Dorset and Hampshire could well develop one or two isolated storm cells today with the added risk of a brief funnel or two but most certainly some visible rotation within the updraft region. This calculation for possible events is bought about by a combination of potential conditions; Relatively weak northery flow at surface is turned 45deg and increased to around 27 kts at 900mb. So when I say 900mb the attention is on how abrupt this low level shear component is developed. In fact the region shows a good surface moist flow from the English Channel and strong potential instability from 600mb upwards. Vertical velocities reach 300mb where a further upper jet is showing around 60kts. In short if updrafts are sustain through a continual feed of moisture then tall updraft columns might be achieved with a risk of isolated hail. The only caution withis this region is the level and strength of the cap! Personal note; If the 12z update remains conducive are there any members willing to chase Hants Dorset later this afternoon. Prob start a separate thread to discuss this. Please do not post back here! http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?%2Ftopic%2F98887-convective-outlook-sunday-28th-july-2013%2Fpage__pid__867161#entry867161

No it's fine. The topic is locked now. There's always a lot of Met O bashing when their forecasts aren't spot on but we must remember all different forecasts try their best and not all are right. Thunderstorms are very hard to forecast just like snow! anyway I must keep on topic now lol

Okay, I can't seem to attach the map, best to pop over yourselves and take a look.

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2013/008 A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 22:45GMT on Saturday 27th July 2013 Valid from/until: 22:45 – 18:00GMT on Saturday 27th July/Sunday 28th July 2013 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire: SW England S and parts of mid Wales THREATS Isolated tornadoes; wind gusts to 50mph; CG lightning; hail 10-20mm diameter SYNOPSIS Unstable south-westerly airflow will move into the area overnight and remain in place on Sunday. Overnight tonight, shear will be fairly weak so severe weather is unlikely. During Sunday, diurnal heating should allow for a few hundred J/Kg of CAPE to develop in a region characterised by increeasing vertical wind shear. Further scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop during Sunday. Vertical shear is likely to increase through the day as an upper trough approaches from the south-west. The shear should be sufficient for some organised convection, mainly in the form of multicells and small lines, wind some marginally severe hail and wind gusts. However, some updraught rotation is possible, especially in the afternoon, and a low-end tornado risk appears likely. The activity may spread into parts of central southern England and the Midlands later, and into the evening. A watch may be needed through the day and into the evening if convection develops as expected. Forecaster: RPK. http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

Please, can we keep on topic regards todays potential rather than who was right or wrong with the forecasts yesterday. Thanks

New thread here Locking this one now. 64 pages wow! http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77394-convective-storm-discussion-28th-july-2013/

Hopefully my turn today . If not i'll see ya all in the NSC again. Good luck once again lol.

Morning all, Locking this thread now. A new thread has been opened for this weekends potential. Good luck all and keep safe. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77377-convective-storm-discussion-27th-july-2013/

New thread here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77349-convective-storm-risk-discussion-23rd-july-2013-onwards/ Closing this one now.

Time for a new thread. Yes, it's been a bit of a let down for some but at least we may have another chance at the weekend Lol Don't forget if you want to rant and rave about the lack of them just pop into the No Storms Club. Anyway good luck all for the next few days and especially for the plume supposed to be happening again at the weekend.

Nottingham, that's where it's at! Let's all live in Nottingham lol.

Back to the NSC Stu.

Yes, feel free to join us storm starved. I'm ordering more booze later then we can all drown our sorrows once again. For all members.Do not give up hope.

Course you can. you can also rant and rave as much as you want. I was hoping most members would be out after last night! Still there's always tonight instead.

Convection building here and my weather station is showing a temp of 33.3c.The humidity is up and down at the moment currently showing 50%

Ooops yeah, make sure it's an ipod or something Lol

Gordon, If I were you I'd seek out CBT . As for now, stick on some headphones with your fav music blaring and do some housework or something you enjoy just for a little distraction!

New thread here all. Let's hope to hear lots of reports in the coming week. Closing this one now.. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77317-convective-storm-risk-discussion-21st-july-2013-onwards/

New thread here folks. . Hopefully some of us will be out of the NSC by the end of the week! time will tell of course !Good luck all and do keep safe.

Oi you!!