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Posts posted by Southern Storm
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7 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:
It weirdly feels more ripe for a storm here than yesterday, half hour before we had one - it’s hotter, windier and the CAPE is high - Am I right in presuming there’s a cap in place, or is something possible later?
I've been set for the last hour watching the clouds roll by, they start off looking quite impressive before collapsing upon themselves. I think areas further west might just have enough moisture for something but it's looking like areas in Central Southern England are going to have to get very lucky if something does spark.
I suspect that isolated cell in the far southwest has been helped by Sea Breezes , a possible convergence zone, and land height.
Having written all that, at my current location, cloud has developed quite rapidly overhead
Let's see what happens!
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17 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:
Dan hasn't mentioned the cap down here in his outlook, and says levels are likely too dry to produce any notable lightning.
That makes sense, it's totally clear, with no signs of instability.
I still have some hope though, I've seen "good" days deliver nothing, and vice versa.
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31 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Yes there’s a small narrow area of around a 1,000jKg of cape running east to west along the Dorset/Hants coast at peak heating. If the CAP can be eroded there could be some lively lightning producer’s for a short period.
Any idea what temperature is needed to break the cap?
It's 25 degrees here in Ferndown Dorset, very nice start to the day
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14 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
Good luck for the exam Eagle!
That looks to be it for this evening, it's been fun staying up but I probably should have gone to bed, the developments in the channel had me hoping that something might appear closer to home but it wasn't to be.
Interesting observation is that these cells seem to do better over water, the ones that hit Eastbourne sparked into life as they left France, and the ones in the Bristol channel.
Tomorrow is also looking very interesting for the Midlands, I'm looking forward to seeing how it unfolds.
It's the only thing keeping me going while I wait for some proper night time french imports, tonight has given me hope that there will be some unexpected surprises from time to time
Night all
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4 minutes ago, JR319 said:
I wouldn't trust it too much
It was showing storms for Central southern areas around 7pm but there was nothing!
Take it with a big pinch of salt for now, if more model suits start picking up the same signal it will be game on
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1 minute ago, Mcconnor8 said:
I'm Brighton but think it may go a touch north of me, will be close though, can hear the thunder and see flashes in the distance occasionally
Slightly north of Brighton is probably a good shout, more development as it approaches the UK, it appears some cells are dying and new ones form
This was Eastbourne a few moments ago
2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:Somehow very little showing up on camera as far as I could tell despite bright flashes.
Is this your new camera?
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3 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
Storm in channel slowing down eek
Yeah it definitely has lost some of it strength, just had a look on the Eastbourne cam, hard to see anything as window in front of the camera needs a good clean.
I wonder if main mass will strengthen once it comes ashore?
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1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:
He's got a newborn he'll be awake!!
oh I remember the first few days after my 1st child was born! Hallucinating after not sleeping for almost two days, very interesting indeed, and when the 2nd arrived, I was too tired to even look out the window after hearing thunder!
Congratulations Azazel, I hope you get your storm fix soon !
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17 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:
it all seems to be following in some S shape from Swindon to France, -- and I only say that because it looks like another has popped up East of Brighton.
Very interesting, I'm too far south and would be surprised if anything developed south of the line of showers that can be seen forming on the latest radar
And I don't believe any of the short range high-res models picked this up.
EDIT
It looks like the UKv did kind of predict showers forming, only it was out by a couple of hours
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9 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
I think they might do yes, P.S. I just heard thunder, got the tripod out but only really would work inside my bedroom if storm is in-front of me.New camera picks up stars that I van barely see so shouldn't be too much hassle getting distant lightning just got to point it in the right direction.
It's dark enough, so you should get away with a fairly long exposure, good luck
On a more serious note, if them UK cells become storms Azazel is going to seriously Pi#!ed as one of them developed over Andover
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I think there's going to be a few surprises for the southeast, some strong developing storm's just off the french coast
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14 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
I just saw lightning
Nice one, I notice there are some more showers forming near Winchester! Do you think they have a chance of becoming electrical?
More are developing behind also, I think I'm gonna stay up a little while yet, before deciding weather to go to bed or not.
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15 minutes ago, Azazel said:
Nuisance drizzle now. Shame I don’t live just 20 miles further north!
Don't lose faith, a new cell has just popped up in the southeast, more fun to come I think!
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6 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:
If anything does materialize tonight, you have my Mrs to thank, she booked a weekend away to Somerset, so of course the southern central areas are in with a shout
I hope it stays together, looks like it's heading for your area.
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2 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
Boom.
Nice one, they also appear to expanding further south on some of the Euro cams, absolutely fantastic
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Here is Flensburg 1am local time
Great to see such strong displays after a late start to the 2023 season
And quite a few reports from Northern areas on the Glendale app! So it'll be interesting to see what shows up on social media come Morning
I won't be staying up as I have work tomorrow, and I don't think I'd see that much anyway, but it's nice going to bed knowing that the first displays of the season have finally arrived
And the chance of storms is also improving
Looks like they'll be a few late nights to come in the next few weeks!
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1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:
dont care, i just want to see them!
You should do well, Northern areas are definitely in with a shout good luck.
I'm tempted to head out myself but I'm probably too far south for this one
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Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Southern Storm
It's very hazy in that direction so it's hard to make out. But you can see on one of the photos I've zoomed in some beefy looking sell development
Both are pointing to my west I'm still at Knowlton earthworks
It goes to show all that concrete does help get these things started Southampton