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Southern Storm

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Posts posted by Southern Storm

    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Here's my discussion for tomorrow. Working from 9 till 5 so best to put it here now even though Jay hasn't done the actual map yet.

    There are a couple different modes and timings with these potential storms. I'll start with the most likely but also has the smallest ceiling of potential.

     

    Ahead of a cold front, with fairly good DLS, showers and storms should form in Ireland and up into parts of western Scotland. These happen mainly throughout the afternoon in a stream along an area of 500-1,000 J/KG of MLCAPE along a tight PV lobe. With weak MLCIN and a fairly good trigger with PV lobe induced low-level convergence. This occurs with fairly high moisture and fairly weak saturation. So, all showers and some weak to moderate storms may well form.

     

    High LLLR's and strong 3CAPE (100+ J/KG) allows for some small severe hail to form, potentially around 1-1.25 inches. There is potential for locally 2,000+ J/KG of MUCAPE and combine that with the large inflow layer and you could suggest, strong updraft speed for strong downdraft speed, however, weak downwards momentum within storm soundings will mean that downwards momentum won't be a particularly high percentage of the updraft speed and with restricted inflow strength, so hail is still going to be restricted compared to updraft strength. Strong buoyancy will help the hail, however, there are a lot of anti-severe hail factors mentioned before that keep it from being a significant factor in anything other than increasing updraft width+speed but not necessarily much of the downwdraft speed for the hail size.

    Moving onto the Wales and the midlands-northern England part of the risk. There is quite strong capping in place and no real trigger. However, 2400+ J/KG of MUCAPE in places with widespread 1,000 J/KG of MUCAPE in an area of tropical moisture rates means that with fairly strong DLS, any low-level convergence available via localised orographic features or something like that, could spark a few severe isolated thunderstorms with a small chance of becoming a Supercell. Again, this happens in the afternoon and if storms can get going then it would be mid-afternoon initiation and into the late evening for storms.

     

    Good buoyancy with a large inflow layer and good sub zero CAPE suggests some 1.5 inch hail is possible. The hodograph isn't really your typical C shape with the inflow which is fairly strong but still leaning towards the moderate side and so the hail is still being restricted to about 1.5 inches. The inflow layer is large compared to recently but still relatively small compared to events larger than 1.5 inches. Storms could potentially reach past 12km cloud tops which is quite high compared to your everyday thunderstorms, hence why they could be quite severe.

    Finally, in the evening and overnight in the SW, some elevated thunderstorms could form. Not particularly large CAPE but good moisture and good modelling guidance suggests, these should happen. Previous events suggest some good lightning frequency potential as well.

    Here's the current idea that Jay has but he's waiting till tomorrow which is fair enough but I can't do; (black outline is area of interest for lightning and also in my opinion, the severe outline I would think of as well.).

    image.thumb.png.c57ac6883d817871d1da87e2467e5153.png

    Great update, much appreciated 👍

    • Thanks 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Azazel said:

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Metcheck.com - Storm Forecast Discussions - Weekly Storm Forecast - From 7 September 2023 - Expert Meteorologists Analyse Storm and Convective Forecasts For Countries Around The World.

    WWW.METCHECK.COM
    Metcheck.com - Weekly Storm Forecast - From 7 September 2023 - Expert meteorologists take a weekly look at thunderstorm potential around the world with maps and in depth view of where will...

     

     

    According to Metcheck - every single location in the country has a good chance of storms over the next 3-4 days EXCEPT for the central south which has nothing. Again.

     

    What has changed meteorologically in recent years to make the central south one of the worst places outside of the north pole for thunderstorms? Might be an interesting case study for someone.

    What makes it worse is that if you run through the latter frames of the latest UKv, the showers/storms literally skirt around us, bar the very far southwest 🤣 

    Par for the course as far as this year is concerned, but there is still time for things to improve, however, there is a voice saying I should know better than to cling into fale hope. 

    As for less storms, it certainly feels like we are running way below what we'd usually get in any given year, but a remember thinking the same 10 or so years ago, only to be blessed with some reasonably decent storm seasons. Our time will come again I just hope it isn't a long wait.

    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, ChannelThunder said:

    One year ago!

    FurthereditWM.thumb.jpg.e137423c2055561d87f1ffcd12250fe8.jpg

    Still annoyed about my camera settings/choice of lens on this, but it did lead to me educating myself more on certain things about lightning photography that I was perhaps overlooking a little. Still, made a little bit of money off of two national papers!

    dailymail01.thumb.JPG.588971e92243869981063cd7d376758c.JPG

     

    That's an amazing photo! 

    There will always be something you wish you could change when photographing lightning, I always think I could have done a better job after the fact.

    But we must always remember that we are dealing with lightning, in a country that doesn't experience that much of it, that in itself makes the photo you posted very special indeed!

    Let's hope for something to appear later this week, more epic shots to add to the library 😜

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    19 hours ago, Jamie M said:

    YT video from yesterday

    Great video, it looked like it was really spinning, very nice to watch

    Now we finally have some settled weather, and things are starting to heat up, I wonder if we have some decent storms to look forward to.

    Or are we going to have the heat fade away without any convective breakdown? It's something that has happened a few times in recent years

    In the 90s you'd have a couple of day of 25 degree heat culminating in some big storms, nowadays it seems it can be hotter and have no real breakdown to speak of, I'm hoping for the former 90s scenario

    Only time will tell

    • Like 2

    Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    It's absolutely chucking it down here in Christchurch, no sign of anything electrical yet,  but I do have my eye on the stuff out in the channel. 

    Here is something I put together, I edited most of the storm footage and pictures I managed to capture while over in Burgundy last week, unfortunately I'm not there for today's storms, but I can't complain too much really

    AIL4fc-DrMTGOYcI6EjvWl36tyYk0YYGvqXugeCN

     

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 2

    European Storm & Convective Discussion

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Southern Storm

    This is from early hours of this morning looking north towards Troyes

    IMG_3074.thumb.jpg.a64ab51d3e142620256c1f1bc9323426.jpg

    No storms developed around the area I'm staying at, but I had a great view of the storms that were passing to the north of me. 

    I decided to post a facebook link instead as it takes ages to upload full quality images with the connection I currently have, so the rest can be seen over at FB

    Enjoy 

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Facebook

    M.FACEBOOK.COM

     

    • Like 5

    European Storm & Convective Discussion

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Southern Storm

    10 hours ago, Metwatch said:

    Look like the next few days is looking quite stormy for France.

    A strong storm went through eastern parts earlier this evening (linked tweet) and now a strong MCS across southern France. Watching a live came in Limoges, about a bright flash every 5-10 seconds with a distant CG every minute.

    Could contain:

    Could contain:

    Could contain:

    Yes indeed, finally I've been able to catch a decent storm after waiting literally months for something to show up around the  central southern counties of England 

    The forecast for my location in Vix, Burgundy is looking very promising for the coming days 

    Screenshot_20230814-134358.thumb.png.bb8f9f9284e25bbbb3dd9bcc7e42c62f.png

    And I've already been able to capture some lightning shots from a few storms that passed to my south in the early hours of this morning 😁

    801A3091.thumb.jpg.7d07862909523fa9bb16ec5c5f97d4f5.jpg 801A3024.thumb.jpg.f04915b9c5dbbd3b37a983d97c2de5c0.jpg 801A3057.thumb.jpg.ff117146142770103cca7676d18db5c8.jpg 801A3027.thumb.jpg.500f024e453af557b974df9add722426.jpg 801A3102.thumb.jpg.5b1fcfcbb61f18c42391a1b5627f7f06.jpg 801A3087.thumb.jpg.f63d440ed87eb8bbc777b28de3833a58.jpg 801A2977.thumb.jpg.fe31bed47b3b08215fb096c69b406fca.jpg 801A2965.thumb.jpg.ec2ecd921c0ea060eafc1dc57637030c.jpg 20230814015507_801A3054.thumb.jpg.d4bde8618b5a5affe882f9b6278a87c3.jpg 20230813230736_801A2869.thumb.jpg.5879c683cf040c703be57cfc2ab23d05.jpg IMG_2814.thumb.jpg.16e1a642895c09ddca1fcb6649a1eeca.jpg 801A2928.thumb.jpg.a64b0924ac15f2881afc8565af64e561.jpg 

    I'll be out as much as possible with the camera to make the most of this spell, as I'm not holding my breath for this years storm season to suddenly come to life for us southern folk. 

    • Like 6

    Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Southern Storm

    Wow, that's sounds amazing! Has this years so called "storm season"  driven you to the extreme of travelling across the Atlantic at great expense, or had you already signed up? 

    I can't wait to hear all about it as it's definitely something I want to do at some point in the future, until then I'm keeping my fingers crossed for some action while I'm in France, there's usually a storm or two when we're over there and it's hotting up just as we arrive 🤞 otherwise I'm facing my first storm free season in a very long time 😐 

    Good luck with the storms!  Feel free to send some this way if you can 😜

    • Like 2
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