sundog
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Posts posted by sundog
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2 minutes ago, TheOgre said:
It’s weird to think what era you grew up in could influence the way you view seasons. I was born in 2001 so grew up in a period of cold and snowy winters from 2008-13 and was flabbergasted by the snowless 2013-14. I used to think snowy spells happened every winter!
I was born in 73 , so growing up in the winters of 77 -87 , i thought cold spells most or every winter was normal. Then the late 80s disabused me of that notion.
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Just now, Bricriu said:
I'd probably take that if offered. Anything is better then the current muck atm . As I type damp, cloudy and 13c. Feels like a Dec 2015 day today.
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Booferking hasn't lost his 150 quid just yet lol
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What looks like happening next week reminds me a bit of around the 20th Dec 91. Briefly cold for a day or 2. Think that was the only time I saw a few snow showers that winter.
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11 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
I intially agreed on uppers of around -5 not cutting it for most - however there is something about thicknesses as well that need to considered and might by more important under such low pressure?
Would the 850hpa level be down a few hundred metres. About 1200m instead of around the more normal 1500m?
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One good thing I suppose is decent cold for the Arctic. IF we could tap into that further down the line....at some stage, any northerly would be potent one would imagine?
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10 hours ago, mountain shadow said:
That is actually 4 days before Christmas and isn't the worst chart as the PV is on the move from NE Canada towards Scandinavia.
It offers a small chance of a ridge as it moves which may allow an Arctic incursion around Christmas.
Perhaps a good call by Mountain Shadow this morning. Seems to be the way the Ecm is heading on this evenings run. Definitely a better Ecm in the later frames then this morning.
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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:
Sure, that can't be right, the tele connection gurus are offering a January to remember, all the teleconnections are lining up, no?
EQBO, Canadian Warming, el nine, favourable MJO.
The warm September curse can take them all on!
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No point taking what the models are showing too seriously regarding Xmas until next weekend imo . Atm there at least seems to be some scope for improvement to what they are showing currently.
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14 minutes ago, CameronWS said:
Seems to me a lot of very reactionary comments on here. Lots of moaning, but we’ve got a full week a cold temps and hard frosts coming up some of the nicest weather other than Snow IMO.
Surely the lack of moisture would be have been expected at the time of the season and not a surprise? Later in the season colder T850s would create greater convection - I actually think the disappointment is partly because the spell has actually turned out much better than hoped.
According to all the knowledgeable posters on here it appears we’re entering a phase from the start of next week where the background drivers aren’t in our favour. By the final third of December there appears to be a lot of excitement about what could potentially happen - the main focus right now should be be on those developments rather than devastation because the Atlantic pushes the block back as expected after a nice, unexpected and (by all accounts) lucky cold spell.I personally am looking forward to seeing what later in the month has to offer!
I think it maybe a good thing if/when it turns milder the second week of Dec. Gives us more time for things to turn back in our favour for Christmas. Better that that turning milder in the 3rd week etc. Of course I would like it to be cold all the way through but that would be unrealistic. Hopefully the cold pattern can return in time for Christmas........
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9 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:
Still feel like this low on Thursday will decide how long it stays cold, if it goes south and completely misses the UK I feel it locks us into cold for a good while.
So imo the further south it goes the better, it brings in deeper cold and sets things up better for next weekend onwards.
100% . I just want it the hell out of the way to our south.
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Just now, That ECM said:
Lows 6 days away.
Indeed, don't know why some are getting caught up on the exact position of the low yet when it's still a number of days away. Plenty more runs to come before then.....
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20 minutes ago, That ECM said:
There has been numerous.
December 2012 was just an incredible run by the ecm which I took my name from but the one which stands out most was the eastly that was modelled by all down to T72 and the met had said was coming and by the morning it was gone. Can’t remember the year.
hence T120 is only for fun T72 isn’t a done deal and less that T24 for snow clarity.
I think the Yr an easterly got down to T72 and then was gone was Feb 2007.
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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:
Almost the classic retrograde pattern setting up on GFS, pinch of salt for now
Looks like a Murr sausage attempt lol.
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2 minutes ago, snowray said:
Would expect some very cold temps at this stage, early December sun very weak, no snow melt, hard frosts.
Would ground temperatures not need to fall alot for no snow melt? ( if there was snow about ). All the wettness in the ground would produce some latent heat also I presume. Need the ground to dry up somewhat over the next while.
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4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:
We say it every year about January don't we? Maybe this time.......
If not Jan then maybe Feb lol. The carrot dangling on a stick all winter. Before we know it, it will be March .
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Looking at these charts from early jan 77. Can't imagine the same type of turnaround happening nowadays. Pv over Greenland, Hp to the south on Jan 4th. Only a few days later Jan 9th Arctic air moving south as the Hp moved towards greenland.
If that was nowadays we'd be stuck on the Jan 4th 1977 type charts for weeks. Really saddening how much our winters have generally changed ......
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November 88 is one of my favourites. Some nice dry crisp frosty weather about that month. Think it was easily the month with the most amount of cold weather that particular autumn/winter season which otherwise was very poor.
It was one of the last times I remember smog being an issue in Dublin.
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2 minutes ago, Don said:
What I've found this year is what was seen as mild/warm only 10 years ago is now seen as cold by certain people. You can bet your bottom dollar at the end of the year, some will claim 2023 has been a cold year when in actual fact it will at the very least be one of the mildest, if not THE mildest on record!
Couldn't agree more!
Indeed and surely the first half of this autumn must have been one of the warmest if not the warmest on record . Then some complaining about the cold already ,when temperatures have been fairly average the last week or 2. Can't get my head around that.
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14 minutes ago, razorgrain said:
Something milder on the horizon thankfully
Of course it always has to be something milder appearing these days doesn't it? Yawn
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Surely a fired up jet stream is bad for the chance of cold spells and a sluggish one is better. For example when the eastern states get a cold spell that can fire up the jet across the Atlantic bringing us plenty of rain and little cold.
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Still not had the heating on yet. Will probably have to put it on though before the end of the month. From 9th Nov my energy provider are reducing costs by 15.5% so that's better then nothing.
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No had it on yet, was thinking about it last night though but held off. Since the end of march have only had it on for 2 hrs that was in April.
Last autumn/winter I kept a little diary of when the heating was on, how many hrs a day. To get an idea of the cost.
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27 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:
Looks like autumn has made a very sharp, abrupt showing of itself. Making up for a complete lack of itself perhaps! I’ll be interested to see the change in leaves now we have swung to much cooler/colder weather along with what looks some very wet weather too. Still not much in the way of colour here but leaf fall has started gaining traction. This cold spell at the moment no doubt will hyper accelerate things. Not expecting a good show of colour this year anyway and that would make it the third poor autumn in a row for colour.
Went for a walk yesterday in a forest. Couldn't believe how green it still looked.
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Favourite christmas weather memories 24-31 Dec
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
New years eve night 2009. In a pub with a group of friends. Started snowing about an hr before midnight lasted an hr or 2. It was the first snowfall of that winter here. Perfect timing for ringing in the new yr. The snow stayed on the ground for the following 10 days or so.